A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk

We show that nancial sector bailouts and sovereign credit risk are intimately linked. A bailout benets the economy by ameliorating the under-investment problem of the nancial sector. However, increasing taxation of the non-nancial sector to fund the bailout may be inecient since it weakens its incentive to invest, decreasing growth. Instead, the sovereign may choose to fund the bailout by diluting existing government bondholders, resulting in a deterioration of the sovereign's creditworthiness. This deterioration feeds back to the nancial sector, reducing the value of its guarantees and existing bond holdings as well as increasing its sensitivity to future sovereign shocks. We provide empirical evidence for this two-way feedback between nancial and sovereign credit risk using data on the credit default swaps (CDS) of the Eurozone countries and their banks for 2007-11. We show that the announcement of nancial sector bailouts was associated with an immediate, unprecedented widening of sovereign CDS spreads and narrowing of bank CDS spreads; however, post-bailouts there emerged a signi- cant co-movement between bank CDS and sovereign CDS, even after controlling for banks' equity performance, the latter being consistent with an eect of the quality of sovereign guarantees on bank credit risk

A Pyrrhic Victory? - Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk

We show that financial sector bailouts and sovereign credit risk are intimately linked. A bailout benefits the economy by ameliorating the under-investment problem of the financial sector. However, increasing taxation of the non-financial sector to fund the bailout may be inefficient since it weakens its incentive to invest, decreasing growth. Instead, the sovereign may choose to fund the bailout by diluting existing government bondholders, resulting in a deterioration of the sovereign's creditworthiness. This deterioration feeds back onto the financial sector, reducing the value of its guarantees and existing bond holdings and increasing its sensitivity to future sovereign shocks. We provide empirical evidence for this two-way feedback between financial and sovereign credit risk using data on the credit default swaps (CDS) of the Eurozone countries for 2007-10. We show that the announcement of financial sector bailouts was associated with an immediate, unprecedented widening of sovereign CDS spreads and narrowing of bank CDS spreads; however, post-bailouts there emerged a significant co-movement between bank CDS and sovereign CDS, even after controlling for banks' equity performance, the latter being consistent with an effect of the quality of sovereign guarantees on bank credit risk.

Securitization without risk transfer

We analyze asset-backed commercial paper conduits which played a central role in the early phase of the financial crisis of 2007-09. We document that commercial banks set up conduits to securitize assets while insuring the newly securitized assets using credit guarantees. The credit guarantees were structured to reduce bank capital requirements, while providing recourse to bank balance sheets for outside investors. Consistent with such recourse, we find that banks with more exposure to conduits had lower stock returns at the start of the financial crisis; that during the first year of the crisis, asset-backed commercial paper spreads increased and issuance fell, especially for conduits with weaker credit guarantees and riskier banks; and that losses from conduits mostly remained with banks rather than outside investors. These results suggest that banks used this form of securitization to concentrate, rather than disperse, financial risks in the banking sector while reducing their capital requirements.

Do exposures to sagging real estate, subprime or conduits abroad lead to contraction and flight to quality in bank lending at home?

We investigate how differential exposures by German banks to the US real estate market affect domestic lending in Germany when home prices started to decline in the US. We find that banks with an exposure to the US real estate sector and to conduits shift their domestic lending to industry–region combinations with lower insolvency ratios following a decrease in US home prices. These banks also contract their lending to German firms more than banks that do not have such exposure. We mainly document that possible losses abroad shift bank lending at home where the size of the effect depends on the type and the degree of exposure the bank has

Klebanov-Witten flows in M-theory

We study renormalization group flows among three dimensional superconformal gauge theories which closely resemble the renowned Klebanov-Witten flow in four dimensions. In the large N limit, each theory appearing in the flow is holographically dual to M-theory on AdS4 times a toric Sasaki-Einstein seven-manifold. The theories are obtained through the so-called flavoring method, which adds some fundamental matter fields to the dimensionally reduced Klebanov-Witten theories. We reconfirm the matching between the gauge theories and the dual geometries by comparing the chiral ring structure. As a more refined test of the flows, we compute the three-sphere partition function of the gauge theories. The square of the free energy, inversely proportional to the volume of the seven-manifold, decreases by a universal ratio 16/27 for all flows considered in this paper.Comment: 38 pages, 8 figures; v2. references added, minor improvement

Internal capital market practices of multinational banks evidence from south africa

This paper examines how internal capital flows inside multinational banks create global financial interconnections, relying on a novel database on foreign banks operating in South Africa. Using the event of the East Asian crisis, I find that foreign affiliates’ balance sheet face “reversal of fortune” when other members of their banking group need large amounts of internal capital to cushion capital losses, leading to an abrupt reallocation of internal capital across countries. At the same time, an increase of the volume of internal funding received is shown to cause an expansion of credit to the local private sector

Do Global Banks Spread Global Imbalances? Asset-Backed Commercial Paper during the Financial Crisis of 2007–09

The global imbalance explanation of the financial crisis of 2007–09 suggests that demand for riskless assets from countries with current account surpluses created fragility in countries with current account deficits, most notably in the United States. This paper examines this explanation by analyzing the geography of asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) conduits set up by large commercial banks. The paper shows that banks in surplus countries as well as banks in deficit countries manufactured riskless assets, totaling over $1.2 trillion, by selling short-term ABCP to risk-averse investors, predominantly U.S. money market funds, and investing the proceeds primarily in long-term U.S. assets. As negative information about U.S. assets became apparent in August 2007, banks in both surplus and deficit countries experienced difficulties in rolling over ABCP and as a result suffered significant losses. The paper concludes that global banking flows, rather than global imbalances, determined the geography of the financial crisis.

A Pyrrhic Victory? Bank Bailouts and Sovereign Credit Risk

We show that financial sector bailouts and sovereign credit risk are intimately linked. A bailout benefits the economy by ameliorating the under-investment problem of the financial sector. However, increasing taxation of the non-financial sector to fund the bailout may be inefficient since it weakens its incentive to invest, decreasing growth. Instead, the sovereign may choose to fund the bailout by diluting existing government bondholders, resulting in a deterioration of the sovereign's creditworthiness. This deterioration feeds back to the financial sector, reducing the value of its guarantees and existing bond holdings as well as increasing its sensitivity to future sovereign shocks. We provide empirical evidence for this two-way feedback between financial and sovereign credit risk using data on the credit default swaps (CDS) of the Eurozone countries and their banks for 2007-11. We show that the announcement of financial sector bailouts was associated with an immediate, unprecedented widening of sovereign CDS spreads and narrowing of bank CDS spreads; however, post-bailouts there emerged a significant co-movement between bank CDS and sovereign CDS, even after controlling for banks' equity performance, the latter being consistent with an effect of the quality of sovereign guarantees on bank credit risk.credit default swaps; deleveraging; financial crises; forbearance; growth; sovereign debt