Climate and environmental data contribute to the prediction of grain commodity prices using deep learning

Background: Grain commodities are important to people's daily lives and their fluctuations can cause instability for households. Accurate prediction of grain prices can improve food and social security. Methods & Materials: This study proposes a hybrid Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model to forecast weekly oat, corn, soybean and wheat prices in the United States market. The LSTM-CNN is a multivariate model that uses weather data, macroeconomic data, commodities grain prices and snow factors, including Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), snowfall and snow depth, to make multistep ahead forecasts. Results: Of all the features, the snow factor is used for the first time for commodity price forecasting. We used the LSTM-CNN model to evaluate the 5, 10, 15 and 20 weeks ahead forecasting and this hybrid model had the lowest Mean Squared Error (MSE) at 5, 10 and 15 weeks ahead of prediction. In addition, Shapley values were calculated to analyse the feature contribution of the LSTM-CNN model when forecasting the testing set. Based on the feature contribution, SWE ranked third, fifth and seventh in feature importance in the 5-week ahead forecast for corn, oats and wheat, respectively, and 7–8 places higher than total precipitation, indicating the potential use of SWE in grain price forecasting. Conclusion: The hybrid multivariate LSTM-CNN model outperformed other models and the newly involved climate data, SWE, showed the research potential of using snow as an input variable to predict grain prices over a multistep ahead time horizon

BICEP2 / Keck Array IX: New bounds on anisotropies of CMB polarization rotation and implications for axionlike particles and primordial magnetic fields

We present the strongest constraints to date on anisotropies of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization rotation derived from 150 GHz data taken by the BICEP2 & Keck Array CMB experiments up to and including the 2014 observing season (BK14). The definition of the polarization angle in BK14 maps has gone through self-calibration in which the overall angle is adjusted to minimize the observed TB and EB power spectra. After this procedure, the QU maps lose sensitivity to a uniform polarization rotation but are still sensitive to anisotropies of polarization rotation. This analysis places constraints on the anisotropies of polarization rotation, which could be generated by CMB photons interacting with axionlike pseudoscalar fields or Faraday rotation induced by primordial magnetic fields. The sensitivity of BK14 maps (∼3  μK−arc min) makes it possible to reconstruct anisotropies of the polarization rotation angle and measure their angular power spectrum much more precisely than previous attempts. Our data are found to be consistent with no polarization rotation anisotropies, improving the upper bound on the amplitude of the rotation angle spectrum by roughly an order of magnitude compared to the previous best constraints. Our results lead to an order of magnitude better constraint on the coupling constant of the Chern-Simons electromagnetic term g_(aγ) ≤ 7.2×10^(−2)/H_I (95% confidence) than the constraint derived from the B-mode spectrum, where H_I is the inflationary Hubble scale. This constraint leads to a limit on the decay constant of 10^(−6) ≲ f_a/M_(pl) at mass range of 10^(−33) ≤ ma ≤ 10^(−28)  eV for r=0.01, assuming g_(aγ) ∼ α/(2πf_a) with α denoting the fine structure constant. The upper bound on the amplitude of the primordial magnetic fields is 30 nG (95% confidence) from the polarization rotation anisotropies

BICEP Array cryostat and mount design

Bicep Array is a cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization experiment that will begin observing at the South Pole in early 2019. This experiment replaces the five Bicep2 style receivers that compose the Keck Array with four larger Bicep3 style receivers observing at six frequencies from 30 to 270GHz. The 95GHz and 150GHz receivers will continue to push the already deep Bicep/Keck CMB maps while the 30/40GHz and 220/270GHz receivers will constrain the synchrotron and galactic dust foregrounds respectively. Here we report on the design and performance of the Bicep Array instruments focusing on the mount and cryostat systems

BICEP Array: a multi-frequency degree-scale CMB polarimeter

Bicep Array is the newest multi-frequency instrument in the Bicep/Keck Array program. It is comprised of four 550mm aperture refractive telescopes observing the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at 30/40, 95, 150 and 220/270 GHz with over 30,000 detectors. We present an overview of the receiver, detailing the optics, thermal, mechanical, and magnetic shielding design. Bicep Array follows Bicep3's modular focal plane concept, and upgrades to 6" wafer to reduce fabrication with higher detector count per module. The first receiver at 30/40GHz is expected to start observing at the South Pole during the 2019-20 season. By the end of the planned Bicep Array program, we project 0.002 ⪅ σ(r) ⪅ 0.006, assuming current modeling of polarized Galactic foreground and depending on the level of delensing that can be achieved with higher resolution maps from the South Pole Telescope

Ultra-thin large-aperture vacuum windows for millimeter wavelengths receivers

Targeting faint polarization patterns arising from Primordial Gravitational Waves in the Cosmic Microwave Background requires excellent observational sensitivity. Optical elements in small aperture experiments such as Bicep3 and Keck Array are designed to optimize throughput and minimize losses from transmission, reflection and scattering at millimeter wavelengths. As aperture size increases, cryostat vacuum windows must withstand larger forces from atmospheric pressure and the solution has often led to a thicker window at the expense of larger transmission loss. We have identified a new candidate material for the fabrication of vacuum windows: with a tensile strength two orders of magnitude larger than previously used materials, woven high-modulus polyethylene could allow for dramatically thinner windows, and therefore significantly reduced losses and higher sensitivity. In these proceedings we investigate the suitability of high-modulus polyethylene windows for ground-based CMB experiments, such as current and future receivers in the Bicep/Keck Array program. This includes characterizing their optical transmission as well as their mechanical behavior under atmospheric pressure. We find that such ultra-thin materials are promising candidates to improve the performance of large-aperture instruments at millimeter wavelengths, and outline a plan for further tests ahead of a possible upcoming field deployment of such a science-grade window

2017 upgrade and performance of BICEP3: a 95GHz refracting telescope for degree-scale CMB polarization

BICEP3 is a 520mm aperture on-axis refracting telescope observing the polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at 95GHz in search of the B-mode signal originating from in ationary gravitational waves. BICEP3's focal plane is populated with modularized tiles of antenna-coupled transition edge sensor (TES) bolometers. BICEP3 was deployed to the South Pole during 2014-15 austral summer and has been operational since. During the 2016-17 austral summer, we implemented changes to optical elements that lead to better noise performance. We discuss this upgrade and show the performance of BICEP3 at its full mapping speed from the 2017 and 2018 observing seasons. BICEP3 achieves an order-of-magnitude improvement in mapping speed compared to a Keck 95GHz receiver. We demonstrate 6.6μK√s noise performance of the BICEP3 receiver

Constraints on Primordial Gravitational Waves Using Planck, WMAP, and New BICEP2/Keck Observations through the 2015 Season

We present results from an analysis of all data taken by the BICEP2/Keck CMB polarization experiments up to and including the 2015 observing season. This includes the first Keck Array observations at 220 GHz and additional observations at 95 and 150 GHz. The Q and U maps reach depths of 5.2, 2.9, and 26  μK_(CMB) arcmin at 95, 150, and 220 GHz, respectively, over an effective area of ≈400 square degrees. The 220 GHz maps achieve a signal to noise on polarized dust emission approximately equal to that of Planck at 353 GHz. We take auto and cross spectra between these maps and publicly available WMAP and Planck maps at frequencies from 23 to 353 GHz. We evaluate the joint likelihood of the spectra versus a multicomponent model of lensed-ΛCDM+r+dust+synchrotron+noise. The foreground model has seven parameters, and we impose priors on some of these using external information from Planck and WMAP derived from larger regions of sky. The model is shown to be an adequate description of the data at the current noise levels. The likelihood analysis yields the constraint r_(0.05)<0.07 at 95% confidence, which tightens to r_(0.05)<0.06 in conjunction with Planck temperature measurements and other data. The lensing signal is detected at 8.8σ significance. Running a maximum likelihood search on simulations we obtain unbiased results and find that σ(r)=0.020. These are the strongest constraints to date on primordial gravitational waves

BICEP2/Keck Array XI: Beam Characterization and Temperature-to-Polarization Leakage in the BK15 Dataset

Precision measurements of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization require extreme control of instrumental systematics. In a companion paper we have presented cosmological constraints from observations with the BICEP2 and Keck Array experiments up to and including the 2015 observing season (BK15), resulting in the deepest CMB polarization maps to date and a statistical sensitivity to the tensor-to-scalar ratio of σ(r) = 0.020. In this work we characterize the beams and constrain potential systematic contamination from main beam shape mismatch at the three BK15 frequencies (95, 150, and 220 GHz). Far-field maps of 7360 distinct beam patterns taken from 2010–2015 are used to measure differential beam parameters and predict the contribution of temperature-to-polarization leakage to the BK15 B-mode maps. In the multifrequency, multicomponent likelihood analysis that uses BK15, Planck, and Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe maps to separate sky components, we find that adding this predicted leakage to simulations induces a bias of Δr = 0.0027 ± 0.0019. Future results using higher-quality beam maps and improved techniques to detect such leakage in CMB data will substantially reduce this uncertainty, enabling the levels of systematics control needed for BICEP Array and other experiments that plan to definitively probe large-field inflation

Measurements of Degree-Scale B-mode Polarization with the BICEP/Keck Experiments at South Pole

The BICEP and Keck Array experiments are a suite of small-aperture refracting telescopes observing the microwave sky from the South Pole. They target the degree-scale B-mode polarization signal imprinted in the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) by primordial gravitational waves. Such a measurement would shed light on the physics of the very early universe. While BICEP2 observed for the first time a B-mode signal at 150 GHz, higher frequencies from the Planck satellite showed that it could be entirely due to the polarized emission from Galactic dust, though uncertainty remained high. Keck Array has been observing the same region of the sky for several years, with an increased detector count, producing the deepest polarized CMB maps to date. New detectors at 95 GHz were installed in 2014, and at 220 GHz in 2015. These observations enable a better constraint of galactic foreground emissions, as presented here. In 2015, BICEP2 was replaced by BICEP3, a 10 times higher throughput telescope observing at 95 GHz, while Keck Array is now focusing on higher frequencies. In the near future, BICEP Array will replace Keck Array, and will allow unprecedented sensitivity to the gravitational wave signal. High resolution observations from the South Pole Telescope (SPT) will also be used to remove the lensing contribution to B-modes