International Trade: Smarten up to talk the talk

International trade is currently under fire from many sides. Protectionist trade policies are on the rise, putting an end to the decade-long march of free trade. Making sense of the daily headlines and having an informed opinion on your own has rarely been more important than it is now. Our work aims to explain the driving forces behind international trade, its history, how it shaped the world, its economic models, issues ranging from job losses to the environment and why eating kangaroos is better than buying local. We summarize the most important academic literature on these topics in a non-technical, educational manner. If the readers conclude that our report has been useful in forming their own views on the pros and cons of international trade and that they can `talk the talk', we are gratified with the fruit of our work

Cold play: Learning across bimatrix games

We study one-shot play in the set of all bimatrix games by a large population of agents. The agents never see the same game twice, but they can learn ‘across games’ by developing solution concepts that tell them how to play new games. Each agent’s individual solution concept is represented by a computer program, and natural selection is applied to derive stochastically stable solution concepts. Our aim is to develop a theory predicting how experienced agents would play in one-shot games

International Trade: Smarten up to talk the talk

International trade is currently under fire from many sides. Protectionist trade policies are on the rise, putting an end to the decade-long march of free trade. Making sense of the daily headlines and having an informed opinion on your own has rarely been more important than it is now. Our work aims to explain the driving forces behind international trade, its history, how it shaped the world, its economic models, issues ranging from job losses to the environment and why eating kangaroos is better than buying local. We summarize the most important academic literature on these topics in a non-technical, educational manner. If the readers conclude that our report has been useful in forming their own views on the pros and cons of international trade and that they can `talk the talk', we are gratified with the fruit of our work

- AN EVOLUTIONARY MODEL OF BERTRAND OLIGOPOLY

We analyze the long-run outcome of markets in which boundedly rational firms with a decreasingreturns to scale technology compete in prices. The behavior of these firms is based on limitation ofsuccess and experimentation. In this framework, we introduce a new approach to model boundedlyrational behavior, based on the idea of behavioral principles, i.e. formal descriptions. Even with thesimplest ones, the result is that the prices announced are a strict refinement of the set of Nashequilibria. With more sophisticated behavioral principles, the long-run outcome corresponds to theconcept of central prices (wich are also Nash equilibria) introduced here. This is a robust andclear-cut prediction wich, under quadratic costs and arbitrary demand, essentially coincides with theWalrasian equilibrium.evolution, mutation, imitation

Non-Standard Errors

In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty: Non-standard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for better reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants

Pricing Defaulted Italian Mortgages

Our paper forecasts the expected recovery rates of defaulted Italian mortgage loans backed by either residential or commercial real estate. We apply an exponential Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to model the price dynamics at the provincial and regional level, and two haircut models to estimate the liquidation value. Compared to our findings, rating agencies such as Moody’s, which use geometric Brownian motion to model the price dynamics, paint a rosier picture with higher recovery rates. As a consequence, non-performing mortgage loans held by Italian banks might be overvalued

Behavioral equilibrium and evolutionary dynamics in asset markets

This paper analyzes a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model of an asset market based on behavioral and evolutionary principles. The core of the model is a non-traditional game-theoretic framework combining elements of stochastic dynamic games and evolutionary game theory. Its key characteristic feature is that it relies only on objectively observable market data and does not use hidden individual agents’ characteristics (such as their utilities and beliefs). A central goal of the study is to identify an investment strategy that allows an investor to survive in the market selection process, i.e., to keep with probability one a strictly positive, bounded away from zero share of market wealth over an infinite time horizon, irrespective of the strategies used by the other players. The main results show that under very general assumptions, such a strategy exists, is asymptotically unique and easily computablepublishedVersio