Measuring polarization via poverty and affluence

The decline of the middle class has been investigated as a principal aspect of social polarization (Wolfson 1994, 1997). Wang and Tsui 2000 have characterized a class of polarization measures by postulates on normalization, increasing spread and increasing bipolarity. The present paper generalizes this class of measures. It defines polarization by aggregating measures of poverty and of affluence, focussing on incomes outside a middle class interval. The approach is applied to German data on income distribution. --decline of middle class,income distribution,income richness

A value at risk analysis of credit default swaps

We study the risk of holding credit default swaps (CDS) in the trading book. In particular, we compare the Value at Risk (VaR) of a CDS position to the VaR for investing in the respective firm's equity. Our sample consists of CDS – stock price pairs for 86 actively traded firms over the period from March 2003 to October 2006. We find that the VaR for a stock is usually far larger than the VaR for a position in the same firm's CDS. However, the distance between CDS VaR and equity VaR is markedly smaller for firms with high credit risk. The distance also declines for longer holding periods. We also observe a positive correlation between CDS and equity VaR. -- Kreditderivate wie Credit Default Swaps (CDS) haben in den letzten Jahren den Handel mit Kreditrisiko signifikant vereinfacht. Ein standardisiertes Kontrakt-Design, niedrige Transaktionskosten und eine große and heterogene Gruppe von Marktteilnehmern haben dazu beigetragen, dass CDS die Benchmark - Funktion für die Preisbestimmung im Markt für Unternehmens-Verschuldung erreichen. Heute ist der CDS das am meisten gehandelte Kreditderivat. Wir analysieren das Risiko von CDS, die im Handelsbuch gehalten werden. Wir vergleichen den Value at Risk (VaR) der CDS Position mit dem VaR für eine Position in der Aktie der gleichen Firma. Unsere Stichprobe umfasst CDS ? Aktien Paare für 86 aktiv gehandelte Firmen im Zeitraum von März 2003 bis Oktober 2006. Wir finden, dass der VaR der Aktie meistens den VaR der CDS - Position deutlich übersteigt. Die Distanz zwischen dem CDS - VaR und dem Aktien - VaR ist jedoch bei Firmen mit hohem Kreditrisiko deutlich geringer. Die Distanz sinkt auch bei längeren Haltedauern. Wir beobachten weiter eine positive Korrelation zwischen dem CDS - VaR und dem Aktien - VaR.Credit default swap,Value at Risk,Capital structure arbitrage

An analysis of euro area sovereign CDS and their relation with government bonds

This paper studies the relative pricing of euro area sovereign CDS and the underlying government bonds. Our sample comprises weekly CDS and bond spreads of ten euro area countries for the period from January 2006 to June 2010. We first compare the determinants of CDS spreads and bond spreads and test how the crisis has affected market pricing. Then we analyse the ‘basis’ between CDS spreads and bond spreads and which factors drive pricing differences between the two markets. Our first main finding is that the recent repricing of sovereign credit risk in the CDS market seems mostly due to common factors. Second, since September 2008, CDS spreads have on average exceeded bond spreads, which may have been due to ‘flight to liquidity’ effects and limits to arbitrage. Third, since September 2008, market integration for bonds and CDS varies across countries: In half of the sample countries, price discovery takes place in the CDS market and in the other half, price discovery is observed in the bond market. JEL Classification: G00, G01CDS, Credit Spread, financial crisis, Government bond, limits to arbitrage

Modelling the implied probability of stock market movements

In this paper we study risk-neutral densities (RNDs) for the German stock market. The use of option prices allows us to quantify the risk-neutral probabilities of various levels of the DAX index. For the period from December 1995 to November 2001, we implement the mixture of log-normals model and a volatility-smoothing method. We discuss the time series behaviour of the implied PDFs and we examine the relations between the moments and observable factors such as macroeconomic variables, the US stock markets and credit risk. We find that the risk-neutral densities exhibit pronounced negative skewness. Our second main observation is a significant spillover of volatility, as the implied volatility and kurtosis of the DAX RND are mostly driven by the volatility of US stock prices. JEL Classification: C22, C51, G13, G15Option prices, risk-neutral density, spillover, Volatility

A value at risk analysis of cedit default swaps

We investigate the risk of holding credit default swaps(CDS) in the trading book and compare the Value at Risk (VaR) of a CDS position to the VaR for investing in the respective firm’s equity using a sample of CDS – stock price pairs for 86 actively traded firms over the period from March 2003 to October 2006. We find that the VaR for a stock is usually far larger than the VaR for a position in the same firm’s CDS. However, the ratio between CDS and equity VaR is markedly smaller for firms with high credit risk. The ratio also declines for longer holding periods. We also observe a positive correlation between CDS and equity VaR. Panel regressions suggest that our findings are consistent with qualitative predictions of the Merton (1974) model. JEL Classification: E43, G12, G13credit default swap, Structural Credit Risk Models, Value at Risk

Measuring Richness and Poverty

In this paper, we define a new class of richness measures. In contrast to the often used headcount, these new measures are sensitive to changes in rich person's income and therefore allow for a more sophisticated analysis of richness. We demonstrate the application of these new measures to analyse the development of poverty and richness over time in Germany, to compare Germany to the other EU-15 countries and to investigate the impact of tax reforms on poverty and richness. The latter analysis is based on micro data provided by the simulation model FiFoSiM using German income tax and household survey micro data. We show that it partly depends on the measure whether the development of richness in Germany is increasing or decreasing. The cross country analysis yields several groups of countries according to their values of poverty and richness indices. The new richness measures show that the effects of flat tax reform scenarios depend on the reform parameters. Using these examples, we show the importance of taking into account the dimension of changes and not only the number of people beyond a given richness line (headcount). We propose to use the new measures in addition to the headcount index for a more comprehensive analysis of richness. --richness,affluence,poverty,tax reform,flat tax

Asset correlations and credit portfolio risk: an empirical analysis

In credit risk modelling, the correlation of unobservable asset returns is a crucial component for the measurement of portfolio risk. In this paper, we estimate asset correlations from monthly time series of Moody's KMV asset values for around 2,000 European firms from 1996 to 2004. We compare correlation and value-atrisk (VaR) estimates in a one-factor or market model and a multi-factor or sector model. Our main finding is a complex interaction of credit risk correlations and default probabilities affecting total credit portfolio risk. Differentiation between industry sectors when using the sector model instead of the market model has only a secondary effect on credit portfolio risk, at least for the underlying credit portfolio. Averaging firm-dependent asset correlations on a sector level can, however, cause a substantial underestimation of the VaR in a portfolio with heterogeneous borrower size. This result holds for the market as well as the sector model. Furthermore, the VaR of the IRB model is more stable over time than the VaR of the market model and the sector model, while its distance from the other two models fluctuates over time. --Asset correlations,sector concentration,credit portfolio risk

Measuring Richness and Poverty: A Micro Data Application to Europe and Germany

In this paper, we define a new class of richness measures. In contrast to the often used headcount, these new measures are sensitive to changes in rich persons' income and therefore allow for a more sophisticated analysis of richness. We demonstrate the application of these new measures to analyze the development of poverty and richness over time in Germany, to compare Germany to many other European countries and to investigate the impact of tax reforms on poverty and richness. Using these examples, we show the importance of taking into account the intensity of changes and not only the number of people beyond a given richness line (headcount). We propose to use the new measures in addition to the headcount index for a more comprehensive analysis of richness.richness, affluence, poverty, tax reform, flat tax