Indemnifying Precaution: Economic Insights for Regulation of a Highly Infectious Disease

Economic insights are powerful for understanding the challenge of managing a highly infectious disease, such as COVID-19, through behavioral precautions including social distancing. One problem is a form of moral hazard, which arises when some individuals face less personal risk of harm or bear greater personal costs of taking precautions. Without legal intervention, some individuals will see socially risky behaviors as personally less costly than socially beneficial behaviors, a balance that makes those beneficial behaviors unsustainable. For insights, we review health insurance moral hazard, agricultural infectious disease policy, and deterrence theory, but find that classic enforcement strategies of punishing noncompliant people are stymied. One mechanism is for policymakers to indemnify individuals for losses associated with taking those socially desirable behaviors to reduce the spread. We develop a coherent approach for doing so, based on conditional cash payments and precommitments by citizens, which may also be reinforced by social norms

Paying Americans to Take the Vaccine - Would it Help or Backfire?

This research investigates the extent to which financial incentives (conditional cash transfers) would induce Americans to opt for vaccination against COVID-19. We performed a randomized survey experiment with a representative sample of 1,000 American adults in December 2020. Respondents were asked whether they would opt for vaccination under one of three incentive conditions ($1,000,$1,500, or $2,000 financial incentive) or a no-incentive condition. We find that—without coupled financial incentives—only 58% of survey respondents would elect for vaccination. A coupled financial incentive yields an 8-percentage-point increase in vaccine uptake relative to this baseline. The size of the cash transfer does not dramatically affect uptake rates. However, incentive responses differ dramatically by demographic group. Republicans were less responsive to financial incentives than the general population. For Black and Latino Americans especially, very large financial incentives may be counter-productive

International sourcing decisions in the wake of a food scandal

This research investigates whether and how the 2013 Horsemeat Scandal has altered European food retailers’ efforts to mitigate fraud in the international agri-food supply chain. We construct an econometric model that matches fraud alert data from the European Union (EU) Rapid Alert System for Food and Feed (RASFF) from 2006 to 2016 with annual data on bilateral trade flows. We find that—prior to the horsemeat scandal—detection of fraud along the supply chain induced a small amount of trade diversion toward third-country sources, but did not substantially affect total trade into the EU. In contrast, in the years after the scandal, the detection of fraud by international suppliers was substantially trade destructive. Detection of fraud reduced trade, not only with the country from which the fraudulent product originated, but also from third-country exporters of the same product. These findings extend beyond trade in meat products and to importing countries outside Western and Northern Europe

2016 International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) Workshop Report

As earth system models (ESMs) become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for comprehensive and multi-faceted evaluation of model projections. To advance understanding of terrestrial biogeochemical processes and their interactions with hydrology and climate under conditions of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, new analysis methods are required that use observations to constrain model predictions, inform model development, and identify needed measurements and field experiments. Better representations of biogeochemistryclimate feedbacks and ecosystem processes in these models are essential for reducing the acknowledged substantial uncertainties in 21st century climate change projections

Search for dijet resonances in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV and constraints on dark matter and other models

Correction: DOI:10.1016/j.physletb.2017.09.029Peer reviewe

Observation of Top Quark Production in Proton-Nucleus Collisions

Peer reviewe

Production of deuterons, tritons, He-3 nuclei, and their antinuclei in pp collisions at root s=0.9, 2.76, and 7 TeV

Invariant differential yields of deuterons and antideuterons in pp collisions at root s = 0.9, 2.76 and 7 TeV and the yields of tritons, He-3 nuclei, and their antinuclei at root s = 7 TeV have been measured with the ALICE detector at the CERN Large Hadron Collider. The measurements cover a wide transverse momentum (p(T)) range in the rapidity interval vertical bar y vertical bar <0.5, extending both the energy and the pT reach of previous measurements up to 3 GeV/c for A = 2 and 6 GeV/c for A = 3. The coalescence parameters of (anti) deuterons and 3 He nuclei exhibit an increasing trend with pT and are found to be compatible with measurements in pA collisions at low p(T) and lower energies. The integrated yields decrease by a factor of about 1000 for each increase of the mass number with one (anti) nucleon. Furthermore, the deuteron-to-proton ratio is reported as a function of the average charged particle multiplicity at different center-of-mass energies.Peer reviewe

Searches for pair production of third-generation squarks in root s=13 TeV pp collisions

Peer reviewe

J/psi Elliptic Flow in Pb-Pb Collisions at root s(NN)=5.02 TeV

We report a precise measurement of the J/ψ elliptic flow in Pb-Pb collisions at √sNN=5.02 TeV with the ALICE detector at the LHC. The J/ψ mesons are reconstructed at midrapidity (|y|<0.9) in the dielectron decay channel and at forward rapidity (2.5<y<4.0) in the dimuon channel, both down to zero transverse momentum. At forward rapidity, the elliptic flow v2 of the J/ψ is studied as a function of the transverse momentum and centrality. A positive v2 is observed in the transverse momentum range 2<pT<8  GeV/c in the three centrality classes studied and confirms with higher statistics our earlier results at √sNN=2.76 TeV in semicentral collisions. At midrapidity, the J/ψ  v2 is investigated as a function of the transverse momentum in semicentral collisions and found to be in agreement with the measurements at forward rapidity. These results are compared to transport model calculations. The comparison supports the idea that at low pT the elliptic flow of the J/ψ originates from the thermalization of charm quarks in the deconfined medium but suggests that additional mechanisms might be missing in the models

Anti-Malarial Biotechnology, Drug Resistance, and the Dynamics of Disease Management

In the presence of market imperfections, there is no guarantee that society will benefit from technological change. This research analyzes the impact of biotechnology designed to bypass agricultural processes in the production of pharmaceutical products. High quality pharmaceuticals often exist alongside less effective treatments with a common active phytochemical ingredient. In this context, antimicrobial resistance generated by the consumption of one product also affects the efficacy of the other product. These interdependencies fundamentally alter the effects of biotechnology on retail markets, agricultural input markets, and antimicrobial resistance. I construct a dynamic epidemiological-economic model of the global market for anti-malarials to analyze the potential economic and public health costs associated with the introduction of a recently developed semi-synthetic production technology by which to procure artemisinin for use in artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) used in the treatment of malaria. I find that in addition to decreasing the price of ACTs, semi-synthetic production technology also lowers the price of low quality monotherapy treatments and increases resistance to all forms of artemisinin. Despite these adverse effects, the development of semi-synthetic artemisinin leads to a present-value gain of approximately $2 billion in social welfare over a seven-year time horizon