Analyzing E-Learning Adoption via Recursive Partitioning

The paper analyzes factors that influence the adoption of e-learning and gives an example of how to forecast technology adoption based on a post-hoc predictive segmentation using a classification and regression tree (CART). We find strong evidence for the existence of technological interdependencies and organizational learning effects. Furthermore, we find different paths to elearning adoption. The results of the analysis suggest a growing "digital divide" among firms. We use cross-sectional data from a European survey about e-business in June 2002, covering almost 6,000 enterprises in 15 industry sectors and 4 countries. Comparing the predictive quality of CART, we find that CART outperforms a traditional logistic regression. The results are more parsimonious, i. e. CARTs use less explanatory variables, better interpretable since different paths of adoption are detected, and from a statistical standpoint, because interactions between the covariates are taken into account.Technology Adoption, Path Dependence, Interaction between Different Technologies, Regression Trees, Predictive Segmentation, Logistic Regression, E-Learning, E-Business

Endogenous Acceleration of Technological Change

Our study shows that the technological development of a firm can be subject to an endogenous acceleration mechanism. The more advanced a firm is in using a particular set of technologies, the more likely will it adopt additional, related technologies. This acceleration mechanism implies that marginal differences in early adoption decisions lead to substantial differences in technology endowment later. This hypothesis is tested in a dataset that records the adoption times of various e-business technologies in a sample of 7,302 firms from 10 different industry sectors and 25 European countries. Estimation is carried out with a semi-parametric hazard rate model that controls for unobserved heterogeneity. The results show that the probability to adopt strictly increases with the number of previously adopted e-business technologies. Evidence for a growing digital divide among the companies in the sample is demonstrated for the period from 1994-2002. The endogenous acceleration mechanism is a possible source of early mover advantages, if technological uncertainty and technological improvements over time are not very large and if the price of the new technologies remains roughly constant.Technology adoption, Technological competition, Complementarity, Hazard rate models, IT

Adoption of e-business: patterns and consequences of network externalities

The paper analyzes the adoption of various e-business technologies. Strong empirical evidence is found for the existence of increasing returns to adoption due to indirect network externalities between related technologies. If a company is close to the technological frontier, its probability of adoption increases. The empirical analysis is based on more than 5,000 observations from a cross-sectional European enterprise survey conducted in June 2002. A classification and regression tree (CART) is used to illustrate technological complementarities and their effect for the adoption probability of a firm. --Technology Adoption,Path Dependence,Classification Trees

"I Think I Can, I Think I Can": Overconfidence and Entrepreneurial Behavior

Many firms fail shortly after inception. Yet individuals continue starting businesses. Prewar economists such as Keynes invoked animal spirits and stressed psychological factors in their explanations of economic behavior. Using a large sample obtained from surveys conducted in 18 countries, we study what variables have a significant impact on an individual's decision to start a business. We find strong evidence that subjective, and often biased, perceptions have a crucial impact on new business creation across all countries in our sample. Our findings are consistent with the idea that individuals rely significantly on their perceptions rather than on objective probabilities, evaluate their businesses prospects by taking an overconfident "inside view" of their situation, and, as a result, overestimate their likelihood of success.Entrepreneurship; Self-employment; Perceptions; Perceptual variables; Overconfidence

Entrepreneurial Overconfidence: Evidence from a C.A.R.T. Approach

We use a sample of 18 countries to study what variables have a significant impact on an individual's decision to start a new business and classification and regression trees for an accurate interpretation of the data. Our results support existing literature suggesting the existence of strong country effects. In addition, we find strong evidence that perceptual variables, such as one's belief about her own skills and ability and about the risk involved in the venture, have a crucial impact on new business creation across all countries in our sample. Our findings are consistent with the idea that entrepreneurs evaluate their businesses by taking an "inside view" of their situation, overestimate their likelihood of success, and, as a result, rely significantly on perceptions rather than on objective expectations of success.CARTs; Entrepreneurship; Overconfidence; Self-employment