Air quality and health implications of 1.5–2°C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: A multi-model scenario analysis

Low-carbon pathways consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C long-term climate goals defined in the Paris Agreement are likely to induce substantial co-benefits for air pollution and associated health impacts. In this analysis, using five global integrated assessment models, we quantify the emission reductions in key air pollutants resulting from the decarbonization of energy systems and the resulting changes in premature mortality attributed to the exposure to ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter. The emission reductions differ by sectors. Sulfur emissions are mainly reduced from power plants and industry, cuts in nitrogen oxides are dominated by the transport sector, and the largest abatement of primary fine particles is achieved in the residential sector. The analysis also shows that health benefits are the largest when policies addressing climate change mitigation and stringent air pollution controls are coordinated. We decompose the key factors that determine the extent of health co-benefits, focusing on Asia: changes in emissions, urbanization rates, population growth and ageing. Demographic processes, particularly due to ageing population, counteract in many regions the mortality reductions realized through lower emissions

Future Trends in Air Pollution

The face of air pollution will inevitably change over the course of time. In general, the important driving forces of air pollution, such as population growth, economic development, increased energy consumption and higher agricultural production, are expected to aggravate throughout the world in the coming decades. Additionally, societies have begun to be concerned about the impairment of their living conditions due to poor air quality and have started to take measures to control emissions. Thus, many of the present local and regional air quality problems will improve in the future, especially in industrialised countries. However, we have little reason to assume that these traditional air quality problems will disappear altogether. Overall, the presently decided control measures do not appear to be sufficient to reach environmentally sustainable conditions in industrialised countries. In the developing world the combined effect of higher pollution levels, caused by the fast economic development and increased population, could lead to unprecedented levels of air pollution damage. To what extent their air quality will be kept at acceptable levels will depend on the preparedness of the societies in developing countries to allocate sufficient resources for air pollution control. Powerful technologies for controlling emissions are on the market, and many developing nations have taken the first steps to limit air pollution, at least for the worst polluted places. While we might be modestly optimistic that local pollution hotspots will eventually be under control, there is reason for concern about the increasing levels of global background air pollution. Current background concentrations alone exceed in many cases the sustainable levels, and their continuing growth counteracts the effectiveness of local and regional emission control efforts.JRC.H.2-Climate chang

GIS-based assessment of the district heating potential in the USA

A methodology for the GIS (Geographic Information System) based analysis of DH (District Heating) potentials is introduced and applied to the continental United States. The energy demand for space heating and hot water in the residential and commercial sector is assessed and spatially allocated using high resolution population distribution and land use data. Demand centers are identified and the overall heat demand and its density are extracted. For each of some 4800 agglomerations, average heat distribution costs are calculated and a CHP (combined heat and power) plant suitable in technology and capacity is selected. The results suggest that there is substantial potential for an extension of DH in the United States. Especially in the north eastern part of the country, a significant share of the demand is located in areas of high demand density. Heat distribution costs vary considerably, and are on average slightly lower in greater agglomerations and regions with high specific heat demands. The overall potential, its distribution to geographical regions and CHP technologies, as well as the average heat distribution costs are found to be strongly dependent on the assumed minimum heat demand density applied to classify the grid cells according their suitability for DH

Technical opportunities to reduce global anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide

We describe a consistent framework developed to quantify current and future anthropogenic emissions of nitrous oxide and the available technical abatement options by source sector for 172 regions globally. About 65% of the current emissions derive from agricultural soils, 8% from waste, and 4% from the chemical industry. Low-cost abatement options are available in industry, wastewater, and agriculture, where they are limited to large industrial farms. We estimate that by 2030, emissions can be reduced by about 6% ±2% applying abatement options at a cost lower than 10 €/t CO2-eq. The largest abatement potential at higher marginal costs is available from agricultural soils, employing precision fertilizer application technology as well as chemical treatment of fertilizers to suppress conversion processes in soil (nitrification inhibitors). At marginal costs of up to 100 €/t CO2-eq, about 18% ±6% of baseline emissions can be removed and when considering all available options, the global abatement potential increases to about 26% ±9%. Due to expected future increase in activities driving nitrous oxide emissions, the limited technical abatement potential available means that even at full implementation of reduction measures by 2030, global emissions can be at most stabilized at the pre-2010 level. In order to achieve deeper reductions in emissions, considerable technological development will be required as well as non-technical options like adjusting human diets towards moderate animal protein consumption

Simultaneous Optimization of Abatement Strategies for Ground-Level Ozone and Acidification

An updated Protocol on emissions of nitrogen oxides, under the UN/ECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution, is now at a preparatory stage. An effectbased approach is to be applied to the environmental problems to which nitrogen oxides contribute, either singly or in combination with other pollutants. One such multi-pollutant problem is ground-level ozone. In order to assist the negotiations on the forthcoming NO x Protocol, IIASA has developed an integrated assessment tool that can be used to support the development of cost-effective European emission control strategies targeted at ground-level ozone. This report presents a number of scenarios to illustrate the main features of ozonerelated emission control strategies. One crucial element is the selection of appropriate environmental targets. Some alternative approaches are described to illustrate the problems involved and the implications of particular solutions. The target-setting process is, however, a genuinely poli..

Cost-Effective Sulphur Emission Reduction Under Uncertainty

The problem of reducing SO 2 emissions in Europe is considered. The costs of reduction are assumed to be uncertain and are modeled by a set of possible scenarios. A meanvariance model of the problem is formulated and a specialized computational procedure is developed. The approach is applied to the transboundary air pollution model with real-world data. Keywords: Environment, Probabilistic programming, Interior point methods. iii iv Cost-Effective Sulphur Emission Reduction Under Uncertainty Anna Altman, Markus Amann, Ger Klaassen, Andrzej Ruszczy'nski, Wolfgang Schopp 1 Introduction Reducing the pollution in the environment has become one of the challenges of the present time in industrial countries, and especially in Europe. It is commonly agreed that action should be undertaken to stop the growth of emissions and eventually achieve a substantial reduction of depositions. One of the issues that attracts the attention of researchers and decision-makers is the emission of sulphu..

A Model for Optimizing Strategies for Controlling Ground-Level Ozone in Europe

In the preparation process for the Second Sulfur Protocol of the Convention on Longrange Transboundary Air Pollution, integrated assessment models have played an important role in identifying cost-effective strategies for reducing SO 2 emissions in Europe. Applying this effect-based approach to other environmental problems (e.g., photo-oxidants) seems appealing. In view of the timetable adopted for the current preparation of an updated Protocol on emissions of nitrogen oxides, an integrated assessment tool for ozone is required in the near future. The paper presents some core elements of an integrated assessment model for tropospheric ozone in Europe, with elements on emissions, emission control technologies and costs, ozone formation and environmental impacts. The focus of the paper is on a `reduced-form' model describing the relationships between the precursor emissions and long-term concentrations of ground-level ozone. This reduced-form model has been developed from a l..