How to Compute Equilibrium Prices in 1891

Irving Fisher's Ph.D. thesis, submitted to Yale University in 1891, contains a fully articulated general equilibrium model presented with the broad scope and formal mathematical clarity associated with Walras and his successors. In addition, Fisher presents a remarkable hydraulic apparatus for calculating equilibrium prices and the resulting distribution of society's endowments among the agents in the economy. In this paper we provide an analytical description of Fisher's apparatus, and report the results of simulating the mechanical/hydraulic "machine," illustrating the ability of the apparatus to "compute" equilibrium prices and also to find multiple equilibria.Fisher, general equilibrium, hydraulic apparatus, equilibrium prices, computable general equilibrium, algorithms

Local action to support knowledge-based development

This paper elaborates on a conceptual toolkit to support understanding and offer assistance to policymakers to plan knowledge cities based around existing efforts to support learning in localised settings. We start with a conceptual framework of the learning region that was applied to a regional development programme in the northern metropolitan region of Melbourne, Australia. In setting out the key features of a learning region, we show how the framework supports the identification of policy gaps and programme needs, drawing on case data from Melbourne's North. The analysis reveals that there can be significant local action to support learning that contributes to the broader goals of knowledge cities, which leverages but is not entirely reliant on government support. To ensure this contribution is not lost when it comes to government policy and programme planning, we argue that a focus on networked governance is needed to improve cooperation between relatively autonomous local learning networks and different levels of government

Imperfect inspection of a system with unrevealed failure and an unrevealed defective state

This paper proposes a model of inspection of a protection system in which the inspection outcome provides imperfect information of the state of the system. The system itself is required to operate on demand typically in emergency situations. The purpose of inspection is to determine the functional state of the system and consequently whether the system requires replacement. The system state is modeled using the delay time concept in which the failed state is preceded by a defective state. Imperfect inspection is quantified by a set of probabilities that relate the system state to the outcome of the inspection. The paper studies the effect of these probabilities on the efficacy of inspection. The analysis indicates that preventive replacement mitigates low quality inspection and that inspection is cost-effective provided the imperfect-inspection probabilities are not too large. Some derivative policies in which replacement is “postponed” following a positive inspection are also studied. An isolation valve in a utility network motivates the modeling

Knowledge sharing for development: online networks and the dual dynamics of inclusion and exclusion

This dissertation explores the extent to which donor-funded online networks support participation by Southern stakeholders in aspects of the development project over which they previously had limited influence or control. The potential of the Internet to facilitate a more inclusive model of support for international development is well recognised in the literature. However, critics argue that most online networks that have been established by donor agencies or rely on their patronage, exclude local knowledge from the South. This research contributes to this debate through an empirical investigation of online networks at three different stages of the ‘aid delivery chain’. This is conceptualised as a chain of individuals and organisations extending from Northern donors to Southern beneficiaries, and incorporating macro-level decision-making processes and micro-level program implementation. The research centres around three case studies of the United Nations Development Programme, the Association for Progressive Communications, and the Open Knowledge Network. Although each case experience is unique, they each demonstrate that online networks can play a valuable role in putting local knowledge at the fore. They have enabled frontline development workers to play a more influential role in shaping aid programs; grassroots organisations to have greater voice in public policy debates; and poor and marginalised communities to generate much-needed income from local solutions to local problems. However these positive outcomes are by no means inevitable. A major finding of this research is the crucial role of incentives in shaping network participation. Although at the highest level, participants may be driven by a shared commitment to improve development performance; in reality, their choices about whether to share their knowledge are usually far more self-interested. Thus, aspirations of active participation cannot be taken for granted. On the contrary, this research indicates that many local knowledge actors view the donor preoccupation with knowledge sharing as placing demands on their time which would be better spent on more pressing activities. This research also identifies factors that limit the ability of many local knowledge actors to contribute to online networks, regardless of their desire to do so. These usually manifested as obstacles to the benefits of participation and were borne out of the power relations in which participants are enmeshed. In each case, the dominance of the English language was a limiting factor which was compounded by tensions and constraints ranging from managerial opposition to local knowledge, resource dependencies, and social and cultural norms that limited mobility and social connections. Beyond internal dynamics, this research also points to notable divergences in the extent to which donor-funded online networks draw on local knowledge from outside their network borders, which are often quite rigid. A related issue is the tendency for many to broadcast contributions to external audiences over the web, rather than leveraging that technology to support knowledge sharing between insider and outsider groups. To ensure that online networks fulfil their promise to strengthen development performance, Web 2.0 platforms are proposed as a means to promote dialogue between insider and outsider groups with divergent interests and worldviews

Women Taking a Folic Acid Supplement in Countries with Mandatory Food Fortification Programs May Be Exceeding the Upper Tolerable Limit of Folic Acid: A Systematic Review.

BACKGROUND: In preconception and pregnancy, women are encouraged to take folic acid-based supplements over and above food intake. The upper tolerable limit of folic acid is 1000 mcg per day; however, this level was determined to avoid masking a vitamin B12 deficiency and not based on folic acid bioavailability and metabolism. This review's aim is to assess the total all-source intake of folate in women of childbearing age and in pregnancy in high-income countries with folate food fortification programs. METHODS: A systematic search was conducted in five databases to find studies published since 1998 that reported folate and folic acid intake in countries with a mandatory fortification policy. RESULTS: Women of childbearing age do not receive sufficient folate intake from food sources alone even when consuming fortified food products; however, almost all women taking a folic acid-based supplement exceed the upper tolerable limit of folic acid intake. CONCLUSIONS: Folic acid supplement recommendations and the upper tolerable limit of 1000 mcg set by policy makers warrant careful review in light of potential adverse effects of exceeding the upper tolerable limit on folic acid absorption and metabolism, and subsequent impacts on women's health during their childbearing years

The ResQu Index: A new instrument to appraise the quality of research on birth place

© 2017 Vedam et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Objective: Place of birth is a known determinant of health care outcomes, interventions and costs. Many studies have examined the maternal and perinatal outcomes when women plan to give birth in hospitals compared with births in birth centres or at home. However, these studies vary substantially in rigour; assessing their quality is challenging. Existing research appraisal tools do not always capture important elements of study design that are critical when comparing outcomes by planned place of birth. To address this deficiency, we aimed to develop a reliable instrument to rate the quality of primary research on maternal and newborn outcomes by place of birth. Study design: The instrument development process involved five phases: 1) generation of items and a weighted scoring system; 2) content validation via a quantitative survey and a modified Delphi process with an international, multi-disciplinary panel of experts; 3) inter-rater consistency; 4) alignment with established research appraisal tools; and 5) pilot-testing of instrument usability. Results: A Birth Place Research Quality Index (ResQu Index) was developed comprising 27 scored items that are summed to generate a weighted composite score out of 100 for studies comparing planned place of birth. Scale content validation indices were .89 for clarity, .94 for relevance and .90 for importance. The Index demonstrated substantial inter-rater consistency; pilot-testing confirmed feasibility and user-friendliness. Conclusion: The ResQu Index is a reliable instrument to evaluate the quality of design, methods and interpretation of reported outcomes from research about place of birth. Higher-scoring studies have greater potential to inform evidence-based selection of birth place by clinicians, policy makers, and women and their families. The Index can also guide the design of future research on place of birth

Birth models of care and intervention rates: The impact of birth centres.

Birth centres offer a midwifery-led model of care which supports a non-medicalised approach to childbirth. They are often reported as having low rates of birth intervention, however the precise impact is obscured because less disadvantaged mothers with less complex pregnancies, and who prefer and often select little intervention, are more likely to choose a birth centre. In this paper, we use a methodology that purges the impact of these selection effects and provides a causal interpretation of the impact of birth centres on intervention outcomes. Using administrative birth data on over 364,000 births in Australia's most populous state between 2001 and 2012, we implement an instrumental variables framework to address confounding factors influencing choice of birth setting. We find that giving birth in a birth centre results in significantly lower probabilities of intervention, and that critically, this impact has been increasing over time. Our estimates are larger than those in existing studies, reflecting our newer data, diverging intervention rates across birth settings, and our accounting for important selection effects. The results emphasise the greater role of birth centres in delivering on policy priorities which include greater maternal autonomy, lower intervention rates, and lower health system costs

United States and Western Europe cooperation in planetary exploration

A framework was sought for U.S.-European cooperation in planetary exploration. Specific issues addressed include: types and levels of possible cooperative activities in the planetary sciences; specific or general scientific areas that seem most promising as the main focus of cooperative efforts; potential mission candidates for cooperative ventures; identification of special issues or problems for resolution by negotiation between the agencies, and possible suggestions for their resolutions; and identification of coordinated technological and instrumental developments for planetary missions

How to Compute Equilibrium Prices in 1891

Irving Fisher’s Ph.D. thesis, submitted to Yale University in 1891, contains a fully articulated general equilibrium model presented with the broad scope and formal mathematical clarity associated with Walras and his successors. In addition, Fisher presents a remarkable hydraulic apparatus for calculating equilibrium prices and the resulting distribution of society’s endowments among the agents in the economy. In this paper we provide an analytical description of Fisher’s apparatus, and report the results of simulating the mechanical/hydraulic “machine,” illustrating the ability of the apparatus to “compute” equilibrium prices and also to find multiple equilibria