Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2010-2030

We generated Low, Medium, and High case fuel price projections for the years 2010-2030 for the following fuels: Incremental natural gas in Southcentral Alaska delivered to a utility-scale customer Incremental diesel delivered to a PCE community utility tank Incremental diesel delivered to a home in a PCE community Incremental home heating oil purchased in Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, Kenai, Ketchikan, Palmer, and Wasilla This memorandum provides documentation of the assumptions and methods that we used. A companion Excel workbook contains the detailed projectionsAlaska Energy AuthorityIntroduction / General methods and assumptions / Natural Gas / Fuel Oil / Reference

Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2010-2030

We generated Low, Medium, and High case fuel price projections for the years 2010-2030 for the following fuels: Incremental natural gas in Southcentral Alaska delivered to a utility-scale customer Incremental diesel delivered to a PCE community utility tank Incremental diesel delivered to a home in a PCE community Incremental home heating oil purchased in Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, Kenai, Ketchikan, Palmer, and Wasilla This memorandum provides documentation of the assumptions and methods that we used. A companion Excel workbook contains the detailed projectionsAlaska Energy AuthorityIntroduction / General methods and assumptions / Natural Gas / Fuel Oil / Reference

The Value of Evidence-Based Computer Simulation of Oral Health Outcomes for Management Analysis of the Alaska Dental Health Aide Program

Objectives: To create an evidence‐based research tool to inform and guide policy and program managers as they develop and deploy new service delivery models for oral disease prevention and intervention. Methods: A village‐level discrete event simulation was developed to project outcomes associated with different service delivery patterns. Evidence‐ based outcomes were associated with dental health aide activities, and projected indicators (DMFT, F+ST, T‐health, SiC, CPI, ECC) were proxy for oral health outcomes. Model runs representing the planned program implementation, a more intensive staffing scenario, and a more robust prevention scenario, generated 20‐year projections of clinical indicators; graphs and tallies were analyzed for trends and differences. Results: Outcomes associated with alternative patterns of service delivery indicate there is potential for substantial improvement in clinical outcomes with modest program changes. Not all segments of the population derive equal benefit when program variables are altered. Children benefit more from increased prevention, while adults benefit more from intensive staffing. Conclusions: Evidence‐ based simulation is a useful tool to analyze the impact of changing program variables on program outcome measures. This simulation informs dental managers of the clinical outcomes associated with policy and service delivery variables. Simulation tools can assist public health managers in analyzing and understanding the relationship between their policy decisions and long‐term clinical outcomes.The Ford Foundation

Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2009-2030

Alaska Energy AuthorityIntroduction / General Methods and Assumptions / Natural Gas / Fuel Oil / Reference

Alaska Fuel Price Projections 2008 - 2030

We generated Low, Medium, and High case fuel price projections for the years 2008-2030 for the following fuels: • Incremental natural gas in Southcentral Alaska delivered to a utility-scale customer • Incremental diesel delivered to a PCE community utility tank • Incremental diesel delivered to a home in a PCE community • Incremental home heating oil purchased in Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, Kenai, Ketchikan, Palmer, and Wasilla This memorandum provides documentation of the assumptions and methods that we used. Two companion Excel workbooks contain the detailed projectionsAlaska Energy AuthorityIntroduction / General methods and assumptions / Natural Gas / Fuel Oil / Reference

Study of the Components of Delivered Fuel Costs in Alaska: January 2009 Update

This is an update of our previous report titled “Components of Delivered Fuel Prices in Alaska.”1 We provide more recent data on actual fuel prices in ten rural communities that we first examined in fall 2007. Rural communities across Alaska face extremely high fuel prices. People in these remote, cold places need large quantities of fuel for heat, electricity, and transportation. The estimated household cost for energy use in remote rural Alaska has increased significantly since 2000—increasing from approximately 16% of total household income to 47% in 2008 for the lowest income households. It is a higher portion of income for all income levels in remote rural Alaska as compared to Anchorage.2 In addition to the high price of fuel in rural Alaska, villages and communities have high unemployment rates, limited local economic bases, and local governments that are struggling to provide basic services to residents and businesses.3 A 2008 report done by the Alaska Division of Community Advocacy stated that the price of gasoline in 100 Alaska communities ranged from $2.75 (Fairbanks) to$9.00 (Arctic Village) per gallon with a mean of $5.80.4 In many areas of Alaska, transporting bulk fuel by air, barge, truck or a combination of these methods increases the price of fuel, most of which must be purchased prior to “freeze up” in cold winter months in order to allow time for delivery to remote villages. High remote rural fuel prices appear to be the result of a number of factors. These include high transportation costs to remote locations, limited and costly storage, small market size, and the financing costs associated with holding large inventories. The main purpose of this research is to identify the components of the cost of delivered fuel across rural Alaska. By understanding these cost components, it may be possible to identify opportunities to address them and reduce the overall cost of fuel

Components of Delivered Fuel Prices in Alaska

This is a systematic analysis of components of delivered fuel prices in Alaska. Data for the analysis include limited publicly available Alaska fuel prices (fall 2007 prices), as well as information the authors gathered from extensive interviews with fuel retailers and transporters, communities, and agencies. We identify the individual components of delivered fuel costs—including world price of crude oil, refining costs, transportation costs, storage and distribution costs, taxes and financing costs—and investigate how these factors influence the final retail prices of home heating fuel and gasoline. Transportation, storage, and distribution costs appear to be the most variable factors driving the large retail fuel price differentials among Alaska communities. Therefore, we investigate how factors such as seasonal icing, the number of fuel transfers enroute to specific communities, local storage and delivery infrastructure, marine and river characteristics, and distance from refineries or fuel hubs influence fuel prices. We did an in-depth analysis of how those factors influence prices in ten case study communities around the state—Allakaket/Alatna, Angoon, Bethel, Chitina, False Pass, Fort Yukon, Lime Village, Mountain Village, Unalakleet, and Yakutat. Together, the quantitative data and information on Alaska fuel logistics provide a comprehensive analysis of Alaska’s fuel prices.Alaska Energy AuthorityIntroduction / Crude oil prices / Refining / Fuel Product Transportation / Alaska Oil Taxes and Royalties / Subsidies and Assistance Programs / Comparative Case Study Results / Summary and Policy Implications / References / Appendix. Community Case Study Summarie

Alaska Energy Statistics 1960-2008

Prior to 1985, the federal Alaska Power Administration published the Alaska Electric Power Statistics. Then, the Alaska Energy Authority (formerly the Alaska Power Authority) began gathering statistical data and publishing this annual report. In 1988, the Alaska Electric Power Statistics report became a combined effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Energy Authority. Beginning in 1993, the report became a joint effort between the Alaska Systems Coordinating Council and the Alaska Department of Community and Regional Affairs, Division of Energy. After the 1995 report, no further reports were published until 2003 when a report was prepared by the Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER), University of Alaska Anchorage (UAA), with funding provided by the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA), the Regulatory Commission of Alaska (RCA), and the Denali Commission. This twenty-third edition of the Alaska Electric Energy Statistics was prepared by the Institute of Social and Economic Research. Information on utility, industry, and military electricity capacity, generation, and other characteristics was gathered primarily from reports filed with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Energy Information Administration (EIA) and made available on their website. This was supplemented by data collected by the Alaska Energy Authority through the Power Cost Equalization (PCE) program and a limited number of direct contacts with electric power producers in the state. This is a similar methodology used to develop information for the 2003 report.Alaska Energy AuthorityIntroduction / Report Highlights / Electric Power Statistics / Alaska Railbelt / Alaska Renewable Energy / Alaska Energy Balance / Appendice

Alaska Community Fuel Use

The goal of this project was to estimate the amount of fuel used for space heating and electricity production by communities in Alaska. No comprehensive Alaska fuel use data exist at the community level. Community fuel consumption by type of fuel and end use is needed to estimate the potential economic benefits from demand- and supply-side investments in fuel use reduction projects. These investments include weatherization and housing stock improvements; improved lighting, appliance and space heating efficiencies; waste heat capture; electric interties, and alternative energy supply options such as wind and hydroelectric generation. Ultimately the Alaska Energy Authority (AEA) and others can use this information to rank and select a suite of projects that provide the largest gains in fuel reductions at the lowest long-term costs and the highest returns on investment over the life of the projects. Study communities consisted of Power Cost Equalization (PCE) eligible communities. Communities in the North Slope Borough were excluded because fuel subsidies offered by the borough result in different patterns of energy use by households.Alaska Energy Authorit

Alaska Energy Data Gateway Provides New Services

This short news release outlines the contributors and content of the Alaska Energy Data Gateway website