Renewables-based decarbonization and relocation of iron and steel making: a case study

The article assesses the future role of hydrogen-based iron and steel making and its potential impact on global material flows, based on a combination of technology assessment, material flow analysis, and microeconomic analysis. Renewable hydrogen-based iron production can become the least-cost supply option at a carbon dioxide (CO2) price of around United States dollars (USD) 67 per tonne. Availability of low-cost renewable electricity is a precondition. Australia is the world's largest producer of iron ore and at the same time a country with significant low-cost renewable electricity potential. A shift to direct reduced iron (DRI) exports could reduce global CO2 emissions substantially and at the same time increase value added in Australia, while maintaining steel production in countries that are currently processing ore into iron and steel, such as China, South Korea, and Japan. The approach could be expanded to other parts of the world and other energy-intensive industry sectors. Such relocation analysis in a climate context can become a new industrial ecology research area. Iron and steel industry CO2 emissions can be reduced by nearly a third, around 0.7 gigatonnes (Gt) CO2 per year. To achieve these emission reductions, investment of USD 0.9 trillion, or 0.7% of the total energy sector investment needs, would be required, global DRI production would have to increase seven-fold from today's level, and the hydrogen energy used would equal 1% of global primary energy supply. Such a shift could develop from 2025 onward at scale, if the right policies are put in place

The role of energy efficiency obligations to accelerate Turkey's power system transformation

Compared to renewable energy sources, which have recently gained important ground in Turkey’s power system transformation, energy efficiency has long been at the centre of all strategies. Efficiency is one of the top-ranking local energy resources. The reason for this is the high diversity, low costs, and multiple secondary benefits of energy efficiency technologies and solutions. Our bottom-up analysis of Turkey’s power system shows potential for saving 10 % of total energy demand, equivalent to 49 terawatt-hours per year by 2030, compared to the government’s business-as-usual scenario which assumes significant energy efficiency improvements. Market-based policy mechanisms that include energy efficiency obligations (EEOs) and energy efficiency auctions can unlock an estimated 30 % of this potential by 2030. Such mechanisms are expected to result in net benefits ranging between EUR 1.1 and EUR 1.3 for each euro spent on improving energy efficiency. Turkey’s National Energy Efficiency Action Plan aims to implement market-based mechanisms before 2023, but they are currently at the policy design stage. In this process, Turkey can benefit significantly from the European Union’s (EU) experience with EEOs. Success factors in the EU include setting targets designed for specific end-use sectors, expanding the scope of mechanisms in line with experiences gained in their implementation, prioritising investments with short payback periods, maintaining consistency in how mechanisms are applied, developing processes for monitoring and verification and their management, and evaluation by independent national agencies. This study provides a first-order assessment of the impact of EEOs to improve the efficiency of electricity use in Turkey and outlines a framework for their design based on international experiences. The study concludes with recommendations for policy makers, electricity sector associations and financing institutions

Increasing Turkey's power system flexibility for grid integration of 50% renewable energy share

Secure and reliable operation of power systems with high wind and solar shares requires system flexibility. In this paper, an hourly-based market and grid simulation model is developed to assess security and reliability of a power system with high wind and solar energy share. The model is applied to Turkey as an emerging G20 country that aims to supply its rapidly growing electricity demand from local renewables and lignite as well as nuclear energy. The most ambitious scenario that covers the 2016–2026 period assumes half of all electricity demand is supplied from renewables (30% wind and solar and 20% other resources). This is achieved by ensuring system flexibility through system-friendly location of wind and solar capacity, energy storage, flexible thermal generators, and demand response. Without system flexibility, 3% of renewable power is curtailed and redispatch share required for system security and reliability doubles from current levels. Moreover, additional transmission grid investments are needed. Improving system flexibility ensures secure and reliable operation but increases system costs by 1%–5% with each flexibility option providing different scale benefits, indicating the need for system-wide planning. As gas-based generation declines below 10%, accounting for energy security benefits will be important. On the other hand, coal supply remains around 25% depending on nuclear energy development. At this crossroad, Turkey needs to make its choices to transition to a secure, clean and affordable energy system. The study addresses quantitatively how the flexibility options contribute to such a transition, providing learnings for countries with similar conditions

Transforming Türkiye's power system: an assessment of economic, social, and external impacts of an energy transition by 2030

Türkiye has the long-term goal of transforming its power system to one that is cleaner, more secure and more affordable. According to this paper's scenario analyses, low-cost renewables can supply 55% of Türkiye's total electricity demand. Coupled with the electrification of end-use sectors, energy efficiency can reduce total power demand by 10% compared to a business as usual scenario by 2030. The paper assesses the social, economic, and environmental impacts of this transformation by soft linking a power system model with an applied computable general equilibrium model, using an updated input and output dataset, and employing a novel analysis of job creation and fossil fuel externalities. The power system transformation significantly improves social welfare with net socioeconomic benefits estimated at 1% of GDP by 2030. Positive impacts include a reduction in human health and climate change externalities by a third, which are further enhanced by wage income growth that is driven by higher skilled and better paid jobs. A carbon tax emerges as a critical instrument to realize these benefits whilst reducing the power sector's emissions to 2030. The assessment should be expanded with more ambitious clean energy technology deployment for the entire energy system to operationalize Türkiye's Paris-aligned 2053 net-zero emission target and just transition policies

Planning the European power sector transformation: the REmap modelling framework and its insights

IRENA's renewable energy roadmap (REmap) programme enables the assessment of the renewable energy potential at sector and country level for the year 2030 based on a unique methodology that has been applied to 70 countries. This paper presents findings of REmap for the European power sector where the REmap methodology is complemented with a power system dispatch model, called the REpower Europe model. Results show that in 2030 under REmap, gross electricity demand in the EU-28 can be met with a renewable energy share of 50% and a variable renewable energy (VRE) share of 29%. This would achieve a 43% reduction in the EU power sector's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions relative to 2005 levels. Although achieving higher renewable electricity shares by 2030 is effective in reducing emissions, significant operational challenges would be encountered to realise the potential identified in REmap. Attention needs to be paid to interconnector congestion, curtailment of VRE and operation of dispatchable generators by power system planners to achieve this potential. While the strength of the REmap approach is transparency that allows engagement with energy planning stakeholders, the key to its effective application is the right balance of model complexity and operational ease. This paper shows the insights that can be gained by leveraging the approach and that valuable policy insights are drawn by using a suite of modelling approaches

Transport sector transformation: integrating electric vehicles in Turkey's distribution grids

This study investigates the impacts of integrating electrical vehicles to pilot distribution grids in Turkey to quantify technical concerns and solutions for the year 2030. Different charging loads that discern home, workplace and public charging are considered under two different cases; “home-charging-support” and “public-charging-support.” Random variables describing arrival time of electrical vehicles to the charging stations and associated state of charge at arrival time are modeled with a stochastic approach. Dependencies of electrical vehicle integration capacities of the pilot regions are investigated quantitatively based on several key performance indices. The study also analyzes effects on key performance indicators of demand response by electrical vehicle users, defined as smart charging. Key results show that there is sufficient capacity in the four selected Turkish distribution grids to integrate almost 10% electrical vehicles in the vehicle stock by 2030. Based on the results, priority areas are outlined for stakeholders including energy policymakers