Water resources of Kazakhstan in conditions of uncertainty

The exceptionally high spatial-temporal variability of the river runoff and the significance of its transboundary component considerably worsen the problem of the water supply of the republic. Due to the disadvantageous geographical location in the lower reaches of transboundary river basins, the Republic of Kazakhstan is largely dependent on water economy activities taking place in neighbouring countries. In the article the modern change of the resources of river runoff in Kazakhstan, taking into account climatic and anthropogenic influences is considered. For the assessment of the impact of economic activities on the river runoff and changes in climatic-related runoff, the complex of integral methods was used, and appropriate methodologies were developed. The obtained results of the modern influence of a complex of factors, as well as their significance for the future (till 2030), can be used for the development of scientifically based solutions for sustainable management and protection of water resources. An assessment of the anthropogenic activity of this study shows that the water resources of the river runoff of the Republic of Kazakhstan have decreased by 16.0 km3∙y-1. According to our forecasts, there will be a further decrease in the water resources of the republic due to the expected decrease in transboundary flow to 87.1 km3∙y-1 by 2030, in dry years less than 50.0 km3∙y-1. We propose a set of measures to prevent the negative impact of possible reduction of river runoff resources in the future in the water basins of Kazakhstan

The climatic and river runoff trends in Central Asia: The case of Zhetysu Alatau region, the south-eastern part of Kazakhstan

This study analyses, compares and correlates historical hydrometeorological data for the Zhetysu Alatau region and its main rivers (Lepsy, Sarykan, Koktal, Byzhy) to document characteristics and evidence of changes in climate change (temperature and precipitation) and its impact on annual and monthly river runoff. This study applies Andreyanov method for computation of runoff data and Mann-Kendall statistic method for assessing statistically significant or weak trends. The study reveals that the pattern of temperature for period of 1960–2020 and runoff for period of 1930–2019 has changed in the region. Mann-Kendall test result indicates a statistically significant increase in temperature at all meteorological stations (p0.05). Andreyanov method shows significant changes in intra-annual runoff trends, e.g., calculations for the period of 1965–2019 show a decrease of 5.3% in summer runoff in the Sarykan river, and the increase in runoff in the remaining months was 6.4% higher compared to the period of 1930–1965. Furthermore, the Mann-Kendall test confirms a significant positive trend in the change of seasonal runoff for the Sarykan, Byzhy, and Koktal rivers (p<0.02). The precipitation is one of the main factors influencing river runoff and the correlation coefficient between river runoff and precipitation for Lepsy river is r=0.81; for Byzhy river is r=0.70; for Koktal river is r=0.62; for Sarykan river is r=0.60