Development of an approach to forecast future takeaway outlet growth around schools and population exposure to takeaways in England

Background: Neighbourhood exposure to takeaways can contribute negatively to diet and diet-related health outcomes. Urban planners within local authorities (LAs) in England can modify takeaway exposure through denying planning permission to new outlets in management zones around schools. LAs sometimes refer to these as takeaway “exclusion zones”. Understanding the long-term impacts of this intervention on the takeaway retail environment and health, an important policy question, requires methods to forecast future takeaway growth and subsequent population-level exposure to takeaways. In this paper we describe a novel two-stage method to achieve this. Methods: We used historic data on locations of takeaways and a time-series auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, to forecast numbers of outlets within management zones to 2031, based on historical trends, in six LAs with different urban/rural characteristics across England. Forecast performance was evaluated based on root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) scores in time-series cross-validation. Using travel-to-work data from the 2011 UK census, we then translated these forecasts of the number of takeaways within management zones into population-level exposures across home, work and commuting domains. Results: Our ARIMA models outperformed exponential smoothing equivalents according to RMSE and MASE. The model was able to forecast growth in the count of takeaways up to 2031 across all six LAs, with variable growth rates by RUC (min–max: 39.4-79.3%). Manchester (classified as a non-London urban with major conurbation LA) exhibited the highest forecast growth rate (79.3%, 95% CI 61.6, 96.9) and estimated population-level takeaway exposure within management zones, increasing by 65.5 outlets per capita to 148.2 (95% CI 133.6, 162.7) outlets. Overall, urban (vs. rural) LAs were forecast stronger growth and higher population exposures. Conclusions: Our two-stage forecasting approach provides a novel way to estimate long-term future takeaway growth and population-level takeaway exposure. While Manchester exhibited the strongest growth, all six LAs were forecast marked growth that might be considered a risk to public health. Our methods can be used to model future growth in other types of retail outlets and in other areas

Changes in the number and outcome of takeaway food outlet planning applications in response to adoption of management zones around schools in England: A time series analysis

© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Physical exposure to takeaway food outlets (“takeaways”) is associated with poor diet and excess weight, which are leading causes of excess morbidity and mortality. At the end of 2017, 35 local authorities (LAs) in England had adopted takeaway management zones (or “exclusion zones”), which is an urban planning intervention designed to reduce physical exposure to takeaways around schools. In this nationwide, natural experimental study, we used interrupted time series analyses to estimate the impact of this intervention on changes in the total number of takeaway planning applications received by LAs and the percentage rejected, at both first decision and after any appeal, within management zones, per quarter of calendar year. Changes in these proximal process measures would precede downstream retail and health impacts. We observed an overall decrease in the number of applications received by intervention LAs at 12 months post-intervention (6.3 fewer, 95% CI -0.1, -12.5), and an increase in the percentage of applications that were rejected at first (additional 18.8%, 95% CI 3.7, 33.9) and final (additional 19.6%, 95% CI 4.7, 34.6) decision, the latter taking into account any appeal outcomes. This effect size for the number of planning applications was maintained at 24 months, although it was not statistically significant. We also identified three distinct sub-types of management zone regulations (full, town centre exempt, and time management zones). The changes observed in rejections were most prominent for full management zones (where the regulations are applied irrespective of overlap with town centres), where the percentage of applications rejected was increased by an additional 46.1% at 24 months. Our findings suggest that takeaway management zone policies may have the potential to curb the proliferation of new takeaways near schools and subsequently impact on population health.Peer reviewe

Changes in the number and outcome of takeaway food outlet planning applications in response to adoption of management zones around schools in England: A time series analysis

Physical exposure to takeaway food outlets (“takeaways”) is associated with poor diet and excess weight, which are leading causes of excess morbidity and mortality. At the end of 2017, 35 local authorities (LAs) in England had adopted takeaway management zones (or “exclusion zones”), which is an urban planning intervention designed to reduce physical exposure to takeaways around schools. In this nationwide, natural experimental study, we used interrupted time series analyses to estimate the impact of this intervention on changes in the total number of takeaway planning applications received by LAs and the percentage rejected, at both first decision and after any appeal, within management zones, per quarter of calendar year. Changes in these proximal process measures would precede downstream retail and health impacts. We observed an overall decrease in the number of applications received by intervention LAs at 12 months post-intervention (6.3 fewer, 95% CI -0.1, -12.5), and an increase in the percentage of applications that were rejected at first (additional 18.8%, 95% CI 3.7, 33.9) and final (additional 19.6%, 95% CI 4.7, 34.6) decision, the latter taking into account any appeal outcomes. This effect size for the number of planning applications was maintained at 24 months, although it was not statistically significant. We also identified three distinct sub-types of management zone regulations (full, town centre exempt, and time management zones). The changes observed in rejections were most prominent for full management zones (where the regulations are applied irrespective of overlap with town centres), where the percentage of applications rejected was increased by an additional 46.1% at 24 months. Our findings suggest that takeaway management zone policies may have the potential to curb the proliferation of new takeaways near schools and subsequently impact on population health

Changes in the number of new takeaway food outlets associated with adoption of management zones around schools: A natural experimental evaluation in England

© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/By the end of 2017, 35 local authorities (LAs) across England had adopted takeaway management zones (or “exclusion zones”) around schools as a means to curb proliferation of new takeaways. In this nationwide, natural experimental study, we evaluated the impact of management zones on takeaway retail, including unintended displacement of takeaways to areas immediately beyond management zones, and impacts on chain fast-food outlets. We used uncontrolled interrupted time series analyses to estimate changes from up to six years pre- and post-adoption of takeaway management zones around schools. We evaluated three outcomes: mean number of new takeaways within management zones (and by three identified sub-types: full management, town centre exempt and time management zones); mean number on the periphery of management zones (i.e. within an additional 100 m of the edge of zones); and presence of new chain fast-food outlets within management zones. For 26 LAs, we observed an overall decrease in the number of new takeaways opening within management zones. Six years post-intervention, we observed 0.83 (95% CI -0.30, −1.03) fewer new outlets opening per LA than would have been expected in absence of the intervention, equivalent to an 81.0% (95% CI -29.1, −100) reduction in the number of new outlets. Cumulatively, 12 (54%) fewer new takeaways opened than would have been expected over the six-year post-intervention period. When stratified by policy type, effects were most prominent for full management zones and town centre exempt zones. Estimates of intervention effects on numbers of new takeaways on the periphery of management zones, and on the presence of new chain fast-food outlets within management zones, did not meet statistical significance. Our findings suggest that management zone policies were able to demonstrably curb the proliferation of new takeaways. Modelling studies are required to measure the possible population health impacts associated with this change.Peer reviewe

Planning guidance to limit hot food takeaways: Understanding the possible economic impacts

Local and national policymakers are seeking innovative solutions to create healthier food environments around the world. Between 2009 and 2017, 35 local authorities across England (UK) adopted planning guidance designed to limit the proliferation of hot food takeaways near schools. Whilst these policies are intended to improve population health, they are also likely to have economic impacts. Often a decision to introduce such policies comes down to consideration of whether the short-term economic imperatives of allowing new takeaway outlets to open outweighs the potential long-term public health implications and associated economic consequences. These potential negative and positive economic impacts have not previously been clearly described and are summarised here. The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the potential economic impacts of takeaway management zones. In particular, we present a Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) that outlines the possible economic impacts of takeaway management zones based on researcher knowledge of the interventions and the industry. Potential negative impacts fall across sectors and may include a loss of employment opportunities and reductions in local and national tax receipts, and may impact the economic vitality of local communities. In the longer term, there is the potential for positive impacts such as reductions in healthcare resource utilisation, social care expenditure and sickness-related absence from work. Part of a robust case would a better economic understanding, that would enable local authorities to improve understanding of the trade-offs associated with the policy, such as short-versus long-term, and business-related versus society-related health benefits and costs

Development of an approach to forecast future takeaway outlet growth around schools and population exposure to takeaways in England

Acknowledgements: Not applicable.Background: Neighbourhood exposure to takeaways can contribute negatively to diet and diet-related health outcomes. Urban planners within local authorities (LAs) in England can modify takeaway exposure through denying planning permission to new outlets in management zones around schools. LAs sometimes refer to these as takeaway “exclusion zones”. Understanding the long-term impacts of this intervention on the takeaway retail environment and health, an important policy question, requires methods to forecast future takeaway growth and subsequent population-level exposure to takeaways. In this paper we describe a novel two-stage method to achieve this. Methods: We used historic data on locations of takeaways and a time-series auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, to forecast numbers of outlets within management zones to 2031, based on historical trends, in six LAs with different urban/rural characteristics across England. Forecast performance was evaluated based on root mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute scaled error (MASE) scores in time-series cross-validation. Using travel-to-work data from the 2011 UK census, we then translated these forecasts of the number of takeaways within management zones into population-level exposures across home, work and commuting domains. Results: Our ARIMA models outperformed exponential smoothing equivalents according to RMSE and MASE. The model was able to forecast growth in the count of takeaways up to 2031 across all six LAs, with variable growth rates by RUC (min–max: 39.4-79.3%). Manchester (classified as a non-London urban with major conurbation LA) exhibited the highest forecast growth rate (79.3%, 95% CI 61.6, 96.9) and estimated population-level takeaway exposure within management zones, increasing by 65.5 outlets per capita to 148.2 (95% CI 133.6, 162.7) outlets. Overall, urban (vs. rural) LAs were forecast stronger growth and higher population exposures. Conclusions: Our two-stage forecasting approach provides a novel way to estimate long-term future takeaway growth and population-level takeaway exposure. While Manchester exhibited the strongest growth, all six LAs were forecast marked growth that might be considered a risk to public health. Our methods can be used to model future growth in other types of retail outlets and in other areas

Changes in the number and outcome of takeaway food outlet planning applications in response to adoption of management zones around schools in England: A time series analysis.

Physical exposure to takeaway food outlets ("takeaways") is associated with poor diet and excess weight, which are leading causes of excess morbidity and mortality. At the end of 2017, 35 local authorities (LAs) in England had adopted takeaway management zones (or "exclusion zones"), which is an urban planning intervention designed to reduce physical exposure to takeaways around schools. In this nationwide, natural experimental study, we used interrupted time series analyses to estimate the impact of this intervention on changes in the total number of takeaway planning applications received by LAs and the percentage rejected, at both first decision and after any appeal, within management zones, per quarter of calendar year. Changes in these proximal process measures would precede downstream retail and health impacts. We observed an overall decrease in the number of applications received by intervention LAs at 12 months post-intervention (6.3 fewer, 95% CI -0.1, -12.5), and an increase in the percentage of applications that were rejected at first (additional 18.8%, 95% CI 3.7, 33.9) and final (additional 19.6%, 95% CI 4.7, 34.6) decision, the latter taking into account any appeal outcomes. This effect size for the number of planning applications was maintained at 24 months, although it was not statistically significant. We also identified three distinct sub-types of management zone regulations (full, town centre exempt, and time management zones). The changes observed in rejections were most prominent for full management zones (where the regulations are applied irrespective of overlap with town centres), where the percentage of applications rejected was increased by an additional 46.1% at 24 months. Our findings suggest that takeaway management zone policies may have the potential to curb the proliferation of new takeaways near schools and subsequently impact on population health

Public acceptability of proposals to manage new takeaway food outlets near schools: cross-sectional analysis of the 2021 International Food Policy Study

© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY), https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Global trends indicate that takeaway food is commonly accessible in neighbourhood food environments. Local governments in England can use spatial planning to manage the opening of new takeaway outlets in ?takeaway management zones around schools? (known sometimes as ?exclusion zones?). We analysed data from the 2021 International Food Policy Study to investigate public acceptability of takeaway management zones around schools. Among adults living in Great Britain (n?=?3323), 50.8% supported, 8.9% opposed, and 37.3% were neutral about the adoption of these zones. Almost three-quarters (70.4%) believed that these zones would help young people to eat better. Among 16-17?year olds (n?=?354), 33.3% agreed that young people would consume takeaway food less often if there were fewer takeaways near schools. Using adjusted logistic regression, we identified multiple correlates of public support for and perceived effectiveness of takeaway management zones. Odds of support were strongest among adults reporting that there were currently too many takeaways in their neighbourhood food environment (odds ratio: 2.32; 95% confidence intervals: 1.61, 3.35). High levels of support alongside limited opposition indicate that proposals for takeaway management zones around schools would not receive substantial public disapproval. Policy makers should not, therefore, use limited public support to rationalise policy inertia.Peer reviewe

Changes in the number and outcome of takeaway food outlet planning applications in response to adoption of management zones around schools in England: A time series analysis.

Physical exposure to takeaway food outlets ("takeaways") is associated with poor diet and excess weight, which are leading causes of excess morbidity and mortality. At the end of 2017, 35 local authorities (LAs) in England had adopted takeaway management zones (or "exclusion zones"), which is an urban planning intervention designed to reduce physical exposure to takeaways around schools. In this nationwide, natural experimental study, we used interrupted time series analyses to estimate the impact of this intervention on changes in the total number of takeaway planning applications received by LAs and the percentage rejected, at both first decision and after any appeal, within management zones, per quarter of calendar year. Changes in these proximal process measures would precede downstream retail and health impacts. We observed an overall decrease in the number of applications received by intervention LAs at 12 months post-intervention (6.3 fewer, 95% CI -0.1, -12.5), and an increase in the percentage of applications that were rejected at first (additional 18.8%, 95% CI 3.7, 33.9) and final (additional 19.6%, 95% CI 4.7, 34.6) decision, the latter taking into account any appeal outcomes. This effect size for the number of planning applications was maintained at 24 months, although it was not statistically significant. We also identified three distinct sub-types of management zone regulations (full, town centre exempt, and time management zones). The changes observed in rejections were most prominent for full management zones (where the regulations are applied irrespective of overlap with town centres), where the percentage of applications rejected was increased by an additional 46.1% at 24 months. Our findings suggest that takeaway management zone policies may have the potential to curb the proliferation of new takeaways near schools and subsequently impact on population health

Changes in the number of new takeaway food outlets associated with adoption of management zones around schools: A natural experimental evaluation in England.

By the end of 2017, 35 local authorities (LAs) across England had adopted takeaway management zones (or "exclusion zones") around schools as a means to curb proliferation of new takeaways. In this nationwide, natural experimental study, we evaluated the impact of management zones on takeaway retail, including unintended displacement of takeaways to areas immediately beyond management zones, and impacts on chain fast-food outlets. We used uncontrolled interrupted time series analyses to estimate changes from up to six years pre- and post-adoption of takeaway management zones around schools. We evaluated three outcomes: mean number of new takeaways within management zones (and by three identified sub-types: full management, town centre exempt and time management zones); mean number on the periphery of management zones (i.e. within an additional 100 m of the edge of zones); and presence of new chain fast-food outlets within management zones. For 26 LAs, we observed an overall decrease in the number of new takeaways opening within management zones. Six years post-intervention, we observed 0.83 (95% CI -0.30, -1.03) fewer new outlets opening per LA than would have been expected in absence of the intervention, equivalent to an 81.0% (95% CI -29.1, -100) reduction in the number of new outlets. Cumulatively, 12 (54%) fewer new takeaways opened than would have been expected over the six-year post-intervention period. When stratified by policy type, effects were most prominent for full management zones and town centre exempt zones. Estimates of intervention effects on numbers of new takeaways on the periphery of management zones, and on the presence of new chain fast-food outlets within management zones, did not meet statistical significance. Our findings suggest that management zone policies were able to demonstrably curb the proliferation of new takeaways. Modelling studies are required to measure the possible population health impacts associated with this change