Computing Equilibria of Prediction Markets via Persuasion

We study the computation of equilibria in prediction markets in perhaps the most fundamental special case with two players and three trading opportunities. To do so, we show equivalence of prediction market equilibria with those of a simpler signaling game with commitment introduced by Kong and Schoenebeck (2018). We then extend their results by giving computationally efficient algorithms for additional parameter regimes. Our approach leverages a new connection between prediction markets and Bayesian persuasion, which also reveals interesting conceptual insights

Agreement among human and annotated transcriptions of global songs

Cross-cultural musical analysis requires standardized symbolic representation of sounds such as score notation. However, transcription into notation is usually conducted manually by ear, which is time-consuming and subjective. Our aim is to evaluate the reliability of existing methods for transcribing songs from diverse societies. We had 3 experts independently transcribe a sample of 32 excerpts of traditional monophonic songs from around the world (half a cappella, half with instrumental accompaniment). 16 songs also had pre-existing transcriptions created by 3 different experts. We compared these human transcriptions against one another and against 10 automatic music transcription algorithms. We found that human transcriptions can be sufficiently reliable (~90% agreement, κ ~.7), but current automated methods are not (<60% agreement, κ <.4). No automated method clearly outperformed others, in contrast to our predictions. These results suggest that improving automated methods for cross-cultural music transcription is critical for diversifying MIR

A computational study on outliers in world music

The comparative analysis of world music cultures has been the focus of several ethnomusicological studies in the last century. With the advances of Music Information Retrieval and the increased accessibility of sound archives, large-scale analysis of world music with computational tools is today feasible. We investigate music similarity in a corpus of 8200 recordings of folk and traditional music from 137 countries around the world. In particular, we aim to identify music recordings that are most distinct compared to the rest of our corpus. We refer to these recordings as ‘outliers’. We use signal processing tools to extract music information from audio recordings, data mining to quantify similarity and detect outliers, and spatial statistics to account for geographical correlation. Our findings suggest that Botswana is the country with the most distinct recordings in the corpus and China is the country with the most distinct recordings when considering spatial correlation. Our analysis includes a comparison of musical attributes and styles that contribute to the ‘uniqueness’ of the music of each country

The polygenic nature of telomere length and the anti-ageing properties of lithium

Telomere length is a promising biomarker for age-related disease and a potential anti-ageing drug target. Here, we study the genetic architecture of telomere length and the repositioning potential of lithium as an anti-ageing medication. LD score regression applied to the largest telomere length genome-wide association study to-date, revealed SNP-chip heritability estimates of 7.29%, with polygenic risk scoring capturing 4.4% of the variance in telomere length in an independent cohort (p = 6.17 × 10-5). Gene-enrichment analysis identified 13 genes associated with telomere length, with the most significant being the leucine rich repeat gene, LRRC34 (p = 3.69 × 10-18). In the context of lithium, we confirm that chronic use in a sample of 384 bipolar disorder patients is associated with longer telomeres (p = 0.03). As complementary evidence, we studied three orthologs of telomere length regulators in a Caenorhabditis elegans model of lithium-induced extended longevity and found all transcripts to be affected post-treatment (p  0.05). Consequently, this suggests that lithium may be catalysing the activity of endogenous mechanisms that promote telomere lengthening, whereby its efficacy eventually becomes limited by each individual's inherent telomere maintenance capabilities. Our work indicates a potential use of polygenic risk scoring for the prediction of adult telomere length and consequently lithium's anti-ageing efficacy

A primary care, multi-disciplinary disease management program for opioid-treated patients with chronic non-cancer pain and a high burden of psychiatric comorbidity

BACKGROUND: Chronic non-cancer pain is a common problem that is often accompanied by psychiatric comorbidity and disability. The effectiveness of a multi-disciplinary pain management program was tested in a 3 month before and after trial. METHODS: Providers in an academic general medicine clinic referred patients with chronic non-cancer pain for participation in a program that combined the skills of internists, clinical pharmacists, and a psychiatrist. Patients were either receiving opioids or being considered for opioid therapy. The intervention consisted of structured clinical assessments, monthly follow-up, pain contracts, medication titration, and psychiatric consultation. Pain, mood, and function were assessed at baseline and 3 months using the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI), the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale scale (CESD) and the Pain Disability Index (PDI). Patients were monitored for substance misuse. RESULTS: Eighty-five patients were enrolled. Mean age was 51 years, 60% were male, 78% were Caucasian, and 93% were receiving opioids. Baseline average pain was 6.5 on an 11 point scale. The average CESD score was 24.0, and the mean PDI score was 47.0. Sixty-three patients (73%) completed 3 month follow-up. Fifteen withdrew from the program after identification of substance misuse. Among those completing 3 month follow-up, the average pain score improved to 5.5 (p = 0.003). The mean PDI score improved to 39.3 (p < 0.001). Mean CESD score was reduced to 18.0 (p < 0.001), and the proportion of depressed patients fell from 79% to 54% (p = 0.003). Substance misuse was identified in 27 patients (32%). CONCLUSIONS: A primary care disease management program improved pain, depression, and disability scores over three months in a cohort of opioid-treated patients with chronic non-cancer pain. Substance misuse and depression were common, and many patients who had substance misuse identified left the program when they were no longer prescribed opioids. Effective care of patients with chronic pain should include rigorous assessment and treatment of these comorbid disorders and intensive efforts to insure follow up

The karyotype of three Brazilian Terrarana frogs (Amphibia, Anura) with evidence of a new Barycholos species

A recent substantial rearrangement of the 882 described eleutherodactyline frog species has considerably improved the understanding of their systematics. Nevertheless, many taxonomic aspects of the South American eleutherodactyline species remain unknown and require further investigation using morphological, cytogenetic and molecular approaches. In this work, the karyotypes of the Brazilian species Ischnocnema juipoca (Atibaia and Campos do Jordão, SP), Barycholos cf. ternetzi (Uberlândia, MG, and Porto Nacional, TO), and Pristimantis crepitans (Chapada dos Guimarães and São Vicente, MT) were analyzed using Giemsa staining, Ag-NOR labeling, and C-banding techniques. All individuals had a diploid number of 22 chromosomes, but the Fundamental Numbers were different among species. The herein described low chromosome number of Pristimantis crepitans is unique within this genus, suggesting that cytogenetically this species is not closely related either to its congeneric species or to Ischnocnema. In addition, karyotype differences, mainly in the NOR position, clearly distinguished the two Barycholos populations, besides indicating the existence of a so far undescribed species in this genus. A taxonomic review could clarify the systematic position of P. crepitans and verify the hypothetic new Barycholos species

Building Babies - Chapter 16

In contrast to birds, male mammals rarely help to raise the offspring. Of all mammals, only among rodents, carnivores, and primates, males are sometimes intensively engaged in providing infant care (Kleiman and Malcolm 1981). Male caretaking of infants has long been recognized in nonhuman primates (Itani 1959). Given that infant care behavior can have a positive effect on the infant’s development, growth, well-being, or survival, why are male mammals not more frequently involved in “building babies”? We begin the chapter defining a few relevant terms and introducing the theory and hypotheses that have historically addressed the evolution of paternal care. We then review empirical findings on male care among primate taxa, before focusing, in the final section, on our own work on paternal care in South American owl monkeys (Aotus spp.). We conclude the chapter with some suggestions for future studies.Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (HU 1746/2-1) Wenner-Gren Foundation, the L.S.B. Leakey Foundation, the National Geographic Society, the National Science Foundation (BCS-0621020), the University of Pennsylvania Research Foundation, the Zoological Society of San Dieg

Knowledge and utilization of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics in primary health care centers in rural southwest, Nigeria: a cross-sectional study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Intermittent preventive treatment for prevention of malaria in pregnancy (IPTp) is a key component of malaria control strategy in Nigeria and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is the drug of choice. Despite the evidence of the effectiveness of IPTp strategy using SP in reducing the adverse effects of malaria during pregnancy the uptake and coverage in Nigeria is low. This study set out to assess the use of IPTp among pregnant women attending primary health centres in the rural area and determine factors that influence the uptake.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was carried out between July and August 2007 among 209 pregnant women selected by systematic random sampling from antenatal care attendees at primary health care in a rural Local Government Area of Ekiti State, Nigeria. Information on knowledge of IPT, delivery, adherence and acceptability was obtained using an interviewer administered questionnaire. Descriptive statistics such as means, range, proportions were used. Chi-square test was used to examine association between categorical variables. All analyses were performed at 5% level of significance.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>One hundred and nine of 209 (52.2%) respondents have heard about IPTp but only 26 (23.9%) were able to define it. Fifty seven (27.3%) reported to have received at least one dose of IPTp during the index pregnancy and all were among those who have heard of IPTp (52.3%). Twenty one of the 57 (36.8%) took the SP in the clinic. Only three of the twenty-one (14.3%) were supervised by a health worker. Twenty two of the 36 women (61.1%) who did not take their drugs in the clinic would have liked to do so if allowed to bring their own drinking cups. Almost half (43.9%) of those who had used IPTp during the index pregnancy expressed concern about possible adverse effect of SP on their pregnancies. Periodic shortages of SP in the clinics were also reported.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In this study, IPTp use among pregnant women was very low and there was poor adherence to the Directly Observed Therapy (DOT) scheme. Concerted effort should be made to increase awareness of IPTp among the public especially women of child bearing age. Health workers should also be trained and monitored to ensure adherence.</p

Knowledge of risk factors, beliefs and practices of female healthcare professionals towards breast cancer in a tertiary institution in Lagos, Nigeria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Breast cancer is the leading female malignancy in Nigeria. Screening for early detection has led to reduction in mortality from the disease. It is known that attitudes of physicians and motivation by community nurses influence uptake of screening methods by women. This study aims to investigate knowledge of breast cancer risk factors, beliefs about treatment and practice of screening methods among a cohort of female healthcare professionals in Lagos, Nigeria.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A cross-sectional study was conducted using a self-administered questionnaire to assess the knowledge of breast cancer risk factors, beliefs about treatment and practice of screening methods among 207 female doctors, nurses and other healthcare professionals working in a university teaching hospital in Lagos, Nigeria. Stratified random sampling method was employed. Chi square test, analysis of variance and Mantel-Haenszel test were performed in data analysis using SPSS v10.0 and Epi Info version 6 statistical packages.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Female doctors obtained a mean knowledge score of 74% and were the only professional group that had satisfactory knowledge of risk factors. Majority (86%) believed that early breast cancer is curable while half of participants believed that prayer can make breast cancer disappear from the affected breast. Eighty three percent practice breast self-examination (BSE) once a month and only 8% have ever had a mammogram. Age, knowledge of risk factors, profession and beliefs were not significantly associated with rate of BSE in this study.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Results from this study suggest the need for continuing medical education programmes aimed at improving knowledge of breast cancer among female healthcare providers other than doctors.</p