Postural fall in systolic blood pressure is a useful warning sign in dengue fever [version 2; peer review: 2 approved]

Background Capillary leak is the hallmark of development of severe dengue. A rise in haematocrit has been a major warning sign in WHO guidelines. Postural hypotension, which could reflect the intravascular volume reduction in capillary leak has been noted as warning sign in CDC and Pan American Health Organisation guidelines. We evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of postural hypotension as a marker of development of severe dengue. Methods 150 patients admitted with dengue fever were recruited in this prospective observational study. Diagnostic accuracy of conventional warning signs (abdominal pain, persistent vomiting, fluid accumulation, mucosal bleeding, lethargy, liver enlargement, increasing hematocrit with decreasing platelets) and postural hypotension was evaluated. Results 23 (15.3%) subjects developed severe dengue. Multiple logistic regression analysis showed that ascites/pleural effusion and postural fall in systolic blood pressure of >10.33% had odds ratio of 5.024(95%CI:1.11 – 22.75) and 11.369 (95% CI:2.27 – 56.87), respectively. Other parameters did not reach statistical significance. Sensitivity and specificity of ascites/pleural effusion were 82.6% and 88.2% for development of severe dengue whereas postural fall in systolic blood pressure had sensitivity and specificity of 87% and 82.7%. Conclusions These findings present a strong case for including postural hypotension as a warning sign in patients with dengue fever, especially in resource limited settings