Employment Pacts in Italy 1992 to 2002

Beschäftigungspolitik, Sozialpakt, Zeitgeschichte, Italien, Employment policy, Social pact, Contemporary history, Italy

Introducing Time-to-Educate in a Job Search Model

Transition patterns from school to work differ considerably across OECD countries. Some countries exhibit high youth unemployment rates, which can be considered an indicator of the difficulty facing young people trying to integrate into the labor market. At the same time, education is a time-consuming process, and enrolment and dropout decisions depend on expected duration of studies, as well as on job prospects with and without completed degrees. One way to model entry into the labor market is by means of job search models, where the job arrival hazard is a key parameter in capturing the ease or difficulty in finding a job. Standard models of job search and education assume that skills can be upgraded instantaneously (and mostly in the form of on-the-job training) at a fixed cost. This paper models education as a time-consuming process, a concept which we call time-to-educate, during which an individual faces the trade-off between continuing education and taking up a job.job search, education, enrollment, dropouts

Does Parental Education Affect Fertility? Evidence from Pre-Demographic Transition Prussia

While  women’s  employment  opportunities,  relative  wages,  and  the child quantity quality trade-off have been studied as factors underlying historical fertility limitation, the role of parental education has received little  attention.  We  combine  Prussian  county  data  from  three censuses—1816,  1849,  and  1867—to  estimate  the  relationship between women’s education and their fertility before the demographic transition.  Despite  controlling  for  several  demand  and  supply  factors, we  find  a  negative  residual  effect  of  women’s  education  on  fertility. Instrumental variable estimates, using exogenous variation in women's education driven by differences in landownership inequality, suggest that the effect of women's education on fertility is casual.Demographic transition; female education; fertitility; Nineteenth Century Prussia

Prussia disaggregated : the demography of its universe of localities in 1871

We provide, for the first time, a detailed and comprehensive overview of the demography of more than 50,000 towns, villages, and manors in 1871 Prussia. We study religion, literacy, fertility, and group segregation by location type (town, village, and manor). We find that Jews live predominantly in towns. Villages and manors are substantially segregated by denomination, whereas towns are less segregated. Yet, we find relatively lower levels of segregation by literacy. Regression analyses with county-fixed effects show that a larger share of Protestants is associated with higher literacy rates across all location types. A larger share of Jews relative to Catholics is not significantly associated with higher literacy in towns, but it is in villages and manors. Finally, a larger share of Jews is associated with lower fertility in towns, which is not explained by differences in literacy

The political economy of the Prussian three-class franchise

How did the Prussian three-class franchise, which politically over-represented the economic elite, affect policies? Contrary to the predominant and simplistic view that the system allowed the landed elites to capture most political rents, we find that members of parliament from constituencies with a higher vote inequality support more liberal policies, gauging their political orientation from the universe of roll call votes cast in parliament during Prussia’s rapid industrialization (1867–1903). Consistent with the characteristics of German liberalism that aligned with economic interests of business, the link between vote inequality and liberal voting is stronger in regions with large-scale industry

International risk sharing in the short run and in the long run

Using a panel of 23 industrialised countries, the paper investigates how short-run and long-run income risks are shared and how the source of uncertainty matters for the way this risk gets insured. Surprisingly, short-term and long-term output risks are found to be equally well insured. Transitory shocks get smoothed almost completely whereas permanent shocks remain 80 percent uninsured. We find a somewhat more important role for international capital markets than earlier studies. Whereas our results tie in with some recent theoretical insights and are consistent with empirical findings on home bias in international portfolios, they raise the question why permanent shocks are so hard to insure internationally. Keywords; international consumption risk sharing, European integration, panel data, panel vector autoregressions

Equity Fund Ownership and the Cross-Regional Diversification of Household Risk

We explore the link between portfolio home bias and consumption risk sharing among Italian regions using aggregated household level information on consumption, income and portfolio holdings. We propose to use data on equity fund ownership to proxy for regional home bias: equity funds are typically diversified at the national or international level and will therefore provide interregional diversification. In assessing the impact of equity fund ownership on interregional risk sharing we distinguish between two dimensions: variation in the share of equity funds in fund-holder's wealth (the intensive margin) and variation in the fraction of households that hold funds (the extensive margin). We find that equity fund ownership is an important determinant of interregional risk sharing. First, diversification incentives qualitatively line up with actually observed portfolio choices: fund holders in regions where households are particularly exposed to region-specific labor income risk hold a larger fraction of their wealth in (out-of-region) funds. Secondly, for a region as a whole, risk sharing increases in both the intensive and the extensive margins of diversification and the two margins reinforce each other. The marginal effect of wider equity fund participation seems particularly strong, suggesting that policies aimed at increasing equity market participation could help foster better interregional risk sharing.consumption risk sharing, regional home bias, survey of household income and wealth, labor income risk, portfolio choice, stock market participation

Intra-and International Risk-Sharing in the Short Run and the Long Run

We investigate empirically how industrialized countries and U.S. states share consumption risk at horizons between one and thirty years. U.S. federal states share about 50 percent of their permanent idiosyncratic risk through cross-state capital income flows. While insurance against transitory fluctuations in output is virtually complete, OECD countries do not share any of their permanent idiosyncratic risk. Our results suggest that purely transaction cost based theories cannot explain the home bias, since the potential welfare gains from insurance against permanent shocks would by far outweigh that of insuring against transitory variation. We conclude that permanent and transitory shocks constitute two qualitatively different kinds of risk and that various forms of endogenous market incompleteness may render permanent shocks a lot harder to insure, in particular at the international level.consumption risk sharing, home bias, international business cycles, panel vector autoregressions

Not the opium of the people : income and secularization in a panel of Prussian counties

The interplay between religion and the economy has occupied social scientists for long. We construct a unique panel of income and Protestant church attendance for six waves of up to 175 Prussian counties spanning 1886-1911. The data reveal a marked decline in church attendance coinciding with increasing income. The cross-section also shows a negative association between income and church attendance. But the association disappears in panel analyses, including firstdifferenced models of the 1886-1911 change, panel models with county and time fixed effects, and panel Granger-causality tests. The results cast doubt on causal interpretations of the religioneconomy nexus in Prussian secularization