TADPOLE Challenge: Accurate Alzheimer's disease prediction through crowdsourced forecasting of future data

The TADPOLE Challenge compares the performance of algorithms at predicting the future evolution of individuals at risk of Alzheimer's disease. TADPOLE Challenge participants train their models and algorithms on historical data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study. Participants are then required to make forecasts of three key outcomes for ADNI-3 rollover participants: clinical diagnosis, ADAS-Cog 13, and total volume of the ventricles -- which are then compared with future measurements. Strong points of the challenge are that the test data did not exist at the time of forecasting (it was acquired afterwards), and that it focuses on the challenging problem of cohort selection for clinical trials by identifying fast progressors. The submission phase of TADPOLE was open until 15 November 2017; since then data has been acquired until April 2019 from 219 subjects with 223 clinical visits and 150 Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) scans, which was used for the evaluation of the participants' predictions. Thirty-three teams participated with a total of 92 submissions. No single submission was best at predicting all three outcomes. For diagnosis prediction, the best forecast (team Frog), which was based on gradient boosting, obtained a multiclass area under the receiver-operating curve (MAUC) of 0.931, while for ventricle prediction the best forecast (team EMC1), which was based on disease progression modelling and spline regression, obtained mean absolute error of 0.41% of total intracranial volume (ICV). For ADAS-Cog 13, no forecast was considerably better than the benchmark mixed effects model (BenchmarkME), provided to participants before the submission deadline. Further analysis can help understand which input features and algorithms are most suitable for Alzheimer's disease prediction and for aiding patient stratification in clinical trials.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, 4 tables. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1805.0390

Methods to Determine Neutrino Flux at Low Energies:Investigation of the Low ν\nu Method

We investigate the "low-$\nu$" method (developed by the CCFR/NUTEV collaborations) to determine the neutrino flux in a wide band neutrino beam at very low energies, a region of interest to neutrino oscillations experiments. Events with low hadronic final state energy $\nu<\nu_{cut}$ (of 1, 2 and 5 GeV) were used by the MINOS collaboration to determine the neutrino flux in their measurements of neutrino ($\nu_\mu$) and antineutrino (\nub_\mu) total cross sections. The lowest $\nu_\mu$ energy for which the method was used in MINOS is 3.5 GeV, and the lowest \nub_\mu energy is 6 GeV. At these energies, the cross sections are dominated by inelastic processes. We investigate the application of the method to determine the neutrino flux for $\nu_\mu$, \nub_\mu energies as low as 0.7 GeV where the cross sections are dominated by quasielastic scattering and $\Delta$(1232) resonance production. We find that the method can be extended to low energies by using $\nu_{cut}$ values of 0.25 and 0.50 GeV, which is feasible in fully active neutrino detectors such as MINERvA.Comment: 25 pages, 32 figures, to be published in European Physics Journal

Constraints on the χ_(c1) versus χ_(c2) polarizations in proton-proton collisions at √s = 8 TeV

The polarizations of promptly produced χ_(c1) and χ_(c2) mesons are studied using data collected by the CMS experiment at the LHC, in proton-proton collisions at √s=8  TeV. The χ_c states are reconstructed via their radiative decays χ_c → J/ψγ, with the photons being measured through conversions to e⁺e⁻, which allows the two states to be well resolved. The polarizations are measured in the helicity frame, through the analysis of the χ_(c2) to χ_(c1) yield ratio as a function of the polar or azimuthal angle of the positive muon emitted in the J/ψ → μ⁺μ⁻ decay, in three bins of J/ψ transverse momentum. While no differences are seen between the two states in terms of azimuthal decay angle distributions, they are observed to have significantly different polar anisotropies. The measurement favors a scenario where at least one of the two states is strongly polarized along the helicity quantization axis, in agreement with nonrelativistic quantum chromodynamics predictions. This is the first measurement of significantly polarized quarkonia produced at high transverse momentum