Study protocol on prevalence of non-exudative macular neovascularisation and its contribution to prediction of exudation in fellow eyes with unilateral exudative AMD (EYE-NEON)

PURPOSE: Fellow eyes of patients with unilateral neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD) are at risk of developing macular neovascularisation (MNV). These eyes may first develop subclinical non-exudative MNV (neMNV) before they leak to form exudative MNV (eMNV). The EYE NEON study is a 2-year study aimed at estimating the prevalence and incidence of neMNV and evaluating its role as a predictor for conversion to neovascular AMD. METHODS: EYE NEON is a multicentre study that will run in retinal clinics across 25 National Health Service with the aim to recruit 800 patients with new onset nAMD in the first eye. The fellow-eye with no evidence of nAMD at baseline will be the study eye. All study eyes will have OCT and OCTA done at first and second year following first anti-VEGF treatment to the first eye (non-study eye), with new onset nAMD. We will estimate the prevalence and incidence of neMNV over 2 years, rate of conversion from neMNV to eMNV and numbers initiated on treatment for neovascular AMD in the study eye will be reported. Predictive models of conversion including neMNV with other demographic and imaging parameters will be developed. CONCLUSION: The study design with proposed target sample size is sufficient to evaluate the retinal imaging characteristics of the study eyes with and without neMNV and develop predictive models to inform risk of conversion to nAMD

Development and validation of resource-driven risk prediction models for incident chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetes

Prediction models for population-based screening need, for global usage, to be resource-driven, involving predictors that are affordably resourced. Here, we report the development and validation of three resource-driven risk models to identify people with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) at risk of stage 3 CKD defined by a decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to below 60 mL/min/1.73m2. The observational study cohort used for model development consisted of data from a primary care dataset of 20,510 multi-ethnic individuals with T2DM from London, UK (2007–2018). Discrimination and calibration of the resulting prediction models developed using cox regression were assessed using the c-statistic and calibration slope, respectively. Models were internally validated using tenfold cross-validation and externally validated on 13,346 primary care individuals from Wales, UK. The simplest model was simplified into a risk score to enable implementation in community-based medicine. The derived full model included demographic, laboratory parameters, medication-use, cardiovascular disease history (CVD) and sight threatening retinopathy status (STDR). Two less resource-intense models were developed by excluding CVD and STDR in the second model and HbA1c and HDL in the third model. All three 5-year risk models had good internal discrimination and calibration (optimism adjusted C-statistics were each 0.85 and calibration slopes 0.999–1.002). In Wales, models achieved excellent discrimination(c-statistics ranged 0.82–0.83). Calibration slopes at 5-years suggested models over-predicted risks, however were successfully updated to accommodate reduced incidence of stage 3 CKD in Wales, which improved their alignment with the observed rates in Wales (E/O ratios near to 1). The risk score demonstrated similar model performance compared to direct evaluation of the cox model. These resource-driven risk prediction models may enable universal screening for Stage 3 CKD to enable targeted early optimisation of risk factors for CKD

Development and validation of predictive risk models for sight threatening diabetic retinopathy in patients with type 2 diabetes to be applied as triage tools in resource limited settings.

Background: Delayed diagnosis and treatment of sight threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR) is a common cause of visual impairment in people with Type 2 diabetes. Therefore, systematic regular retinal screening is recommended, but global coverage of such services is challenging. We aimed to develop and validate predictive models for STDR to identify 'at-risk' population for retinal screening. Methods: Models were developed using datasets obtained from general practices in inner London, United Kingdom (UK) on adults with type 2 Diabetes during the period 2007-2017. Three models were developed using Cox regression and model performance was assessed using C statistic, calibration slope and observed to expected ratio measures. Models were externally validated in cohorts from Wales, UK and India. Findings: A total of 40,334 people were included in the model development phase of which 1427 (3·54%) people developed STDR. Age, gender, diabetes duration, antidiabetic medication history, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), and history of retinopathy were included as predictors in the Model 1, Model 2 excluded retinopathy status, and Model 3 further excluded HbA1c. All three models attained strong discrimination performance in the model development dataset with C statistics ranging from 0·778 to 0·832, and in the external validation datasets (C statistic 0·685 - 0·823) with calibration slopes closer to 1 following re-calibration of the baseline survival. Interpretation: We have developed new risk prediction equations to identify those at risk of STDR in people with type 2 diabetes in any resource-setting so that they can be screened and treated early. Future testing, and piloting is required before implementation. Funding: This study was funded by the GCRF UKRI (MR/P207881/1) and supported by the NIHR Biomedical Research Centre at Moorfields Eye Hospital NHS Foundation Trust and UCL Institute of Ophthalmology

Multicenter Evaluation of Diagnostic Circulating Biomarkers to Detect Sight-Threatening Diabetic Retinopathy

Importance: It is a global challenge to provide regular retinal screening for all people with diabetes to detect sight-threatening diabetic retinopathy (STDR). Objective: To determine if circulating biomarkers could be used to prioritize people with type 2 diabetes for retinal screening to detect STDR. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study collected data from October 22, 2018, to December 31, 2021. All laboratory staff were masked to the clinical diagnosis, assigned a study cohort, and provided with the database containing the clinical data. This was a multicenter study conducted in parallel in 3 outpatient ophthalmology clinics in the UK and 2 centers in India. Adults 40 years and older were categorized into 4 groups: (1) no history of diabetes, (2) type 2 diabetes of at least 5 years' duration with no evidence of DR, (3) nonproliferative DR with diabetic macular edema (DME), or (4) proliferative DR. STDR comprised groups 3 and 4. Exposures: Thirteen previously verified biomarkers were measured using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Main Outcomes and Measures: Severity of DR and presence of DME were diagnosed using fundus photographs and optical coherence tomography. Weighted logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (ROC) were performed to identify biomarkers that discriminate STDR from no DR beyond the standard clinical parameters of age, disease duration, ethnicity (in the UK) and hemoglobin A1c. Results: A total of 538 participants (mean [SD] age, 60.8 [9.8] years; 319 men [59.3%]) were recruited into the study. A total of 264 participants (49.1%) were from India (group 1, 54 [20.5%]; group 2, 53 [20.1%]; group 3, 52 [19.7%]; group 4, 105 [39.8%]), and 274 participants (50.9%) were from the UK (group 1, 50 [18.2%]; group 2, 70 [25.5%]; group 3, 55 [20.1%]; group 4, 99 [36.1%]). ROC analysis (no DR vs STDR) showed that in addition to age, disease duration, ethnicity (in the UK) and hemoglobin A1c, inclusion of cystatin C had near-acceptable discrimination power in both countries (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC], 0.779; 95% CI, 0.700-0.857 in 215 patients in the UK with complete data; AUC, 0.696; 95% CI, 0.602-0.791 in 208 patients in India with complete data). Conclusions and Relevance: Results of this cross-sectional study suggest that serum cystatin C had good discrimination power in the UK and India. Circulating cystatin-C levels may be considered as a test to identify those who require prioritization for retinal screening for STDR

Characterization of the Structural and Functional Alteration in Eyes with Diabetic Macular Ischemia

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the relative effect of disorganization of the retinal inner layers (DRIL) and ellipsoid zone (EZ) loss on visual function in diabetic macular ischemia (DMI). DESIGN: Prospective cross-sectional observational study. PARTICIPANTS: Patients with stable treated proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) without center-involved diabetic macular edema were recruited at the Moorfields Eye Hospital from December 2019 to November 2021. The main inclusion criteria were best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) of ≥ 40 ETDRS letters (Snellen equivalent 20/160) with OCT angiography (OCTA) evidence of DMI in ≥ 1 eye. METHODS: Each eligible eye of the recruited patients was assessed for BCVA, OCT, and OCTA metrics. The prespecified OCT parameters were DRIL and subfoveal EZ loss. Generalized estimating equations were used. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The frequency of DRIL and EZ loss, their relative contributions to vision loss, and their associations with microvascular alterations were evaluated. RESULTS: A total of 125 eyes of 86 patients with PDR were enrolled; 104 (83%) eyes had a BCVA of ≥ 70 letters. Disorganization of the retinal inner layers was more prevalent than EZ loss (46% [58 eyes] vs. 19% [24 eyes]). On average, the presence of DRIL had a more pronounced impact on vision, retinal thickness, and microvascular parameters than EZ loss. After multivariable adjustment, the odds of coexisting DRIL increased by 12% with every letter decrease in BCVA; however, there was no statistically significant association of subfoveal EZ loss with BCVA. In eyes with DRIL in the absence of EZ loss, the BCVA declined significantly by 6.67 letters compared with eyes with no DRIL nor EZ loss (95% confidence interval [CI], −9.92 to −3.41; P < 0.001). However, if DRIL and EZ loss coexisted, the resultant BCVA was 13.22 letters less than eyes without these structural abnormalities (95% CI, −18.85 to −7.59; P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In patients with DMI with a Snellen visual acuity of 20/160 or better, eyes with DRIL were associated with more visual function loss and retinal blood circulation alterations than those with subfoveal EZ loss only

Quantitative Autofluorescence in Non-Neovascular Age Related Macular Degeneration

Quantitative autofluorescence (qAF8) level is a presumed surrogate marker of lipofuscin content in the retina. We investigated the changes in the qAF8 levels in non-neovascular AMD. In this prospective cohort study, Caucasians aged ≥50 years with varying severity of non-neovascular AMD in at least one eye and Snellen visual acuity ≥6/18 were recruited. The qAF8 levels were analysed in the middle eight segments of the Delori pattern (HEYEX software, Heidelberg, Germany). The AMD categories were graded using both the Beckman classification and multimodal imaging (MMI) to include the presence of subretinal drusenoid deposits (SDD). A total of 353 eyes from 231 participants were analyzed. Compared with the age-matched controls, the qAF8 values decreased in the eyes with AMD (adjusted % difference = −19.7% [95% CI −28.8%, −10.4%]; p p = 0.04; intermediate AMD (iAMD), −22.9% (−32.3%, −13.1%), p p = 0.002). On MMI, the qAF8 was reduced in the AMD subgroups relative to the controls, (adjusted % differences; Early, −5.8% (−18.9%, 8.3%); p = 0.40; iAMD, −26.7% (−36.2%, −15.6%); p p p = 0.001). The qAF8 levels declined early in AMD and were not significantly different between the severity levels of non-neovascular AMD, suggesting the early and sustained loss of function of the retinal pigment epithelium in AMD

Correlation of Optical Coherence Tomography Angiography Characteristics with Visual Function to Define Vision-Threatening Diabetic Macular Ischemia

The thresholds of macular microvasculature parameters associated with mild visual impairment in diabetic macular ischemia (DMI) patients are unclear. Therefore, this prospective observational study is aimed at demonstrating the optical coherence tomography angiography parameters that best correlate with mild visual impairment (&lt;70 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study (ETDRS) letters, Snellen equivalent 20/40) in DMI. The study was completed at the Moorfields Eye Hospital from December 2019 to August 2021. A total of 123 eyes of 87 patients with stable-treated proliferative diabetic retinopathy following panretinal photocoagulation were recruited. DMI was defined as an irregular foveal avascular zone (FAZ) area &ge; 0.5 mm2 or a smaller FAZ area with parafoveal capillary dropout in at least one quadrant. The analysis showed that the whole image deep vascular complex vessel density (DVC VD) in the 3 &times; 3 mm area had the best discriminatory ability to identify participants with mild visual impairment at 41.9% (area under the curve = 0.77, sensitivity 94%, specificity 54%, likelihood ratio [LR] = 2.04), and the FAZ area had the greatest post-test LR = 4.21 at 0.64 mm2. The 3 &times; 3 mm whole image DVC VD and FAZ area cutoffs are useful for screening vision-threatening DMI, but DVC VD has low specificity