When does more aid imply less democracy? An empirical examination

Foreign aid flows have increased considerably during the last decades, targeting, apart from development objectives, goals related to democracy. In this paper we investigate whether aid has affected the political regime of recipient countries. To this end, we use annual data on Net Official Development Assistance covering 64 aid-recipients. Because of data limitations, we cover the period 1967-2002. We find that aid flows decreased the likelihood of observing a democratic regime in a recipient country. This effect is sensitive to economic and social conditions. The negative relation between aid and democracy is moderated when aid flows are preceded by economic liberalization. Aid from the U.S. has a non-significant effect on the political regime of recipients.democratization; foreign aid; binary model; endogeneity

Public Capital Maintenance, Decentralization and U.s. Productivity Growth

Data published by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office show that over the last fifty years expenditures for infrastructure�s operations and maintenance (O&M) have roughly equalled those for new capital. We use this dataset to investigate the productive impact of public infrastructure spending taking into account its composition for each government level. We find that a rise (fall) in infrastructure expenditures by states and localities (the federal government) would enhance future productivity growth and that the rise in state and local spending should mainly come from additional O&M outlays in the transport sector.capital, maintenance, fiscal decentralization, private productivity

Estimating the Euler Equation for Aggregate Investment with Endogenous Capital Depreciation

This paper looks at the empirical consequences of introducing endogenous capital depreciation in the standard neoclassical model with quadratic adjustment costs. To this end, we formulate an empirical specification that accommodates capital maintenance and utilization in the Euler equations for aggregate investment. The empirical estimates with data from the Canadian survey on Capital and Repair Expenditures show that, in contrast to the existing literature, the performance of the Euler equations is improved when we account for the impact of variable capital depreciation.Euler equation; endogenous depreciation; maintenance expenditures

Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks on Cross Exchange Rates

This paper examines the impact of U.S. monetary policy shocks on the cross exchange rates of sterling, yen and mark. The main finding of the paper is a ‘delayed overshooting’ pattern for all currency cross rates examined (sterling/yen, yen/mark and mark/sterling) following an unexpected U.S. monetary policy change, which in turn generates excess returns. We also provide evidence that the ‘delayed overshooting’ pattern in cross exchange rates is accompanied by asymmetric interventions by central banks in the foreign exchange markets under consideration triggered by U.S. monetary policy shocks.Monetary Policy; Delayed Overshooting; Foreign Exchange Intervention

"Unwarranted" Wage Changes and the Return on Capital

Casual empiricism suggests that “unwarranted” wage changes, defined as the part of wage growth that is not explained by changes in labour productivity, are negatively associated with the return on capital. The main point of this paper is to show that “unwarranted” wage changes have no causal effect on capital return. To this end, we show that standard theoretical models, in which “unwarranted” wages changes and the return on capital are endogenously determined, do not necessarily predict a negative association between them. We then estimate aggregate net return on capital equations using panel data for 19 OECD countries for the period 1970-2000 in which we account for the endogeneity of “unwarranted” wage changes by exploiting variations in institutional and labour market characteristics. We find that “unwarranted” wage changes do not affect the return on capital. This result remains robust to alternative empirical specifications and to alternative definitions of profitability and “unwarranted” wage changes. An implication of our findings is that standard calls for reforms aiming at wage moderation following the appearance of “unwarranted” wage changes are not always justified.capital return, profits, “unwarranted” wages, productivity, endogeneity

Do Foreign Aid Transfers Distort Incentives and Hurt Growth? Theory and Evidence from 75 Aid-recipient Countries

In this paper, foreign aid transfers can distort individual incentives, and hence hurt growth, by encouraging rent-seeking as opposed to productive activities. We construct a model of a small growing open economy that distinguishes two effects from foreign transfers: (i) a direct positive effect, as higher transfers allow the financing of infrastructure; (ii) an indirect negative effect, as higher transfers induce rent-seeking competition on the part of self-interested individuals. In this framework, the growth impact of aid is examined jointly with the determination of rent-seeking behavior. We test the main predictions of the model for a cross-section of 75 aid-recipient countries between 1975 and 1995. There is evidence that aid has a direct positive effect on growth, which is however significantly mitigated by the adverse indirect effects of associated rent-seeking activities. This is especially the case in recipient countries with relatively large public sectors.foreign aid, incentives, growth

Excessive Wages and the Return on Capital

Received wisdom suggests that �excessive� wages, defined as the part of real wages that do not follow labour productivity developments, are adversely associated with the return on capital. This paper argues that excessive wages and profits are better thought as responses to changes in the economic, political and institutional environment and there is no a priori reason for a negative relationship between them. We thus investigate whether there is a causal effect of excessive wages on capital return using aggregate panel data for 19 OECD countries for the period 1970-2000. We account for the endogeneity of excessive wages by exploiting variations in institutional and labour market characteristics. Our main finding is that excessive wages do not affect the return on capital. This result remains robust to alternative empirical specifications and to alternative definitions of profitability and excessive wages, and questions the standard advice by international economic organizations on wage moderation.capital return, �excessive� wages, productivity, endogeneity.

Real Business Cycles with Capital Maintenance

We develop a stochastic general equilibrium model in which maintenance endogenously affects the capital depreciation rate. The model performs well in generating maintenance series that match closely existing survey-based measures for Canada. Maintenance is procyclical and comoves almost always with output. Investmentspecific shocks are the only disturbances that induce a negative correlation between output and maintenance. This feature is crucial for the identification of such shocks in the short run. We use Bayesian estimation to obtain the time profile of equipment capital depreciation in Canadian manufacturing. The depreciation rate has been quite volatile and procyclical over the last 50 years.real business cycle, technology shocks, endogenous capital depreciation, maintenance

Looking far in the past: Revisiting the growth-returns nexus with non-parametric tests

In this paper we reexamine the linkages between output growth and real stock price changes for the G7 countries using a battery of non-parametric procedures to account for the impact of long-lagged observations. We find that correlation between growth and returns is detected at larger horizons than those typically employed in parametric studies. The major feedbacks emerge from stock price changes to growth within the first 6 to 12 months, but we show that significant feedbacks may last for up to two or three years. Our evidence also suggests that the correlation patterns differ substantially between the countries at hand when the sectoral share indices are considered.real stock price changes, output growth, long-run covariance matrix