9 research outputs found
Essays on term structure models
PhDEstimating risk premia has been at the forefront of the financial
economics’ literature due to their informational content. Risk premia are
of particular interest to academics, policymakers and practitioners given
the information they disclose on expected asset returns for a given level
of risk, their contribution in asset pricing and their ability to disentangle
the different sources of risk. However, risk premia are unobserved and
their estimates strongly differ from one study to another, as they are
highly sensitive to the specification of the underlying model, sparking
hence a strong interest in their analysis. The aim of the thesis is to
estimate risk premia in a dynamic term structure model setting. The
first part of the thesis comprises of an overview of a particular class of
dynamic term structure models, namely affine term structure models.
The overview will include important concepts and definitions. The
second part of the thesis uses a risk-averse formulation of the uncovered
interest rate parity to determine exchange rates through interest rate
differentials, and ultimately extract currency risk premia. The method
proposed consists of developing an affine Arbitrage-Free class of dynamic
Nelson-Siegel term structure models (AFNS) with stochastic volatility
to obtain the domestic and foreign discount rate variations, which in
turn are used to derive a representation of exchange rate depreciations
and risk premia. The third part of the thesis studies both the nominal
and real UK term structure of interest rates using a Gaussian dynamic
term structure model, which imposes the non-negativity of nominal short
maturity rates. Estimates of the term premia, inflation risk premia and
market-implied inflation expectations are provided.Economic and Social Research Council
[Grant reference: EF/I022619/1].
I further acknowledge the School of Economics and Finance at Queen
Mary, University of London
Evaluating the Macroeconomic Effects of the ECB's Unconventional Monetary Policies
We quantify the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank’s unconventional monetary policies using a DSGE model which includes a set of shadow interest rates. Extracted from the yield curve, these shadow rates provide unconstrained measures of the overall stance of monetary policy. Counterfactual analyses show that, without unconventional measures, the euro area would have suffered (i) a substantial loss of output since the Great Recession and (ii) a period of deflation from mid-2015 to early 2017. Specifically, year-on-year inflation and GDP growth would have been on average about 0.61% and 1.09% below their actual levels over the period 2014Q1-2017Q2, respectively
Disastrous Defaults
We define a disastrous default as the default of a systemic entity, which has a negative effect on the economy and is contagious. Bringing macroeconomic structure to a no-arbitrage asset pricing framework, we exploit prices of disaster-exposed assets (credit and equity derivatives) to extract information on the expected (i) influence of a disastrous default on consumption and (ii) probability of a financial meltdown. Using European data, we find that the returns of disaster-exposed assets are consistent with a systemic default being followed by a 2% decrease in consumption. The recessionary influence of disastrous defaults implies that financial instruments whose payoffs are exposed to such credit events carry substantial risk premiums. We also produce systemic risk indicators based on the probability of observing a certain number of systemic defaults or a sharp drop of consumption