Analysis of rolling group therapy data using conditionally autoregressive priors

Group therapy is a central treatment modality for behavioral health disorders such as alcohol and other drug use (AOD) and depression. Group therapy is often delivered under a rolling (or open) admissions policy, where new clients are continuously enrolled into a group as space permits. Rolling admissions policies result in a complex correlation structure among client outcomes. Despite the ubiquity of rolling admissions in practice, little guidance on the analysis of such data is available. We discuss the limitations of previously proposed approaches in the context of a study that delivered group cognitive behavioral therapy for depression to clients in residential substance abuse treatment. We improve upon previous rolling group analytic approaches by fully modeling the interrelatedness of client depressive symptom scores using a hierarchical Bayesian model that assumes a conditionally autoregressive prior for session-level random effects. We demonstrate improved performance using our method for estimating the variance of model parameters and the enhanced ability to learn about the complex correlation structure among participants in rolling therapy groups. Our approach broadly applies to any group therapy setting where groups have changing client composition. It will lead to more efficient analyses of client-level data and improve the group therapy research community's ability to understand how the dynamics of rolling groups lead to client outcomes.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS434 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Social Science at the Wildland-Urban Interface: A Compendium of Research Results to Create Fire-Adapted Communities

Over the past decade, a growing body of research has been conducted on the human dimensions of wildland fire. Building on a relatively small number of foundational studies, this research now addresses a wide range of topics including mitigation activities on private lands, fuels reduction treatments on public land, community impacts and resident behaviors during fire, acceptance of approaches to postfire restoration and recovery, and fire management policy and decisionmaking. As this research has matured, there has been a recognition of the need to examine the full body of resulting literature to synthesize disparate findings and identify lessons learned across studies. These lessons can then be applied to fostering fire-adapted communities—those communities that understand their risk and have taken action to mitigate their vulnerability and increase resilience. This compendium of social science research findings related to fire-adapted communities has resulted from a project funded by the Joint Fire Science Program (JFSP). As part of these efforts, the research team reviewed more than 200 publications of research results. Then the team convened a workshop with 16 scientists with extensive experience in the human dimensions of fire management issues. Workshop participants evaluated collective findings and discussed their application to support fire management activities. In addition to this compendium, project outputs were: 1) a synthesis of published literature specific to eight management questions identified by the JFSP, 2) a list of future research needs, 3) a bibliography, including abstracts, with accompanying subject area guide, and 4) a video featuring the experiences of agency personnel and community leaders in successful collaborative fire planning settings. This video is accompanied by a field guide for use by agency managers to more effectively participate in building fire-safe communities. In the sections that follow, we describe our approach to completing this review and present key findings from the literature. Our discussion is organized around five major topical areas: 1) homeowner/community mitigation, 2) public acceptance of fuels treatments on public lands, 3) homeowner actions during a fire, 4) postfire response and recovery, and 5) wildland fire policy and planning. The compendium concludes with a presentation of management implications and a bibliography of all material in this review

Science Basis for Changing Forest Structure to Modify Wildfire Behavior and Severity

This report describes the kinds, quality, amount, and gaps of scientific knowledge for making informed decisions on fuel treatments used to modify wildfire behavior and effects in dry forests of the interior Western United States (especially forests dominated by ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir). A review of scientific principles and applications relevant to fuel treatment primarily for the dry forests is provided for the following topics: fuels, fire hazard, fire behavior, fire effects, forest structure, treatment effects and longevity, landscape fuel patterns, and scientific tools useful for management and planning

Woody biomass utilization trends, barriers, and strategies : a survey of USDA Forest Service managers

16 pagesPublic and private forest managers, renewable energy advocates, and community leaders across the United States are increasingly in- terested in woody biomass for its potential to increase energy independence, mitigate climate change, off-set the costs of hazardous fuels and forest restoration projects, and create opportunities for community-economic development. Woody biomass derived from logging, fuels treatments, and forest products manufacturing can be utilized for heat and electrical energy as well as value-added wood products, although much of the current policy discussion in the United States around biomass has focused on using minimal value biomass for energy purposes.This study was made possible with funding from the USDA Forest Service’s Northern Research Station and the Ford Foundation

Science basis for changing forest structure to modify wildfire behavior and severity

Fire, other disturbances, physical setting, weather, and climate shape the structure and function of forests throughout the Western United States. More than 80 years of fire research have shown that physical setting, fuels, and weather combine to determine wildfire intensity (the rate at which it consumes fuel) and severity (the effect fire has on vegetation, soils, buildings, watersheds, and so forth). Millions of acres of forestlands (mainly in dry forests dominated by ponderosa pine and/or Douglas-fir) contain a high accumulation of flammable fuels compared to conditions prior to the 20th century. Forests with high stem density and fuel loading combined with extreme fire weather conditions have led to severe and large wildfires (such as those seen in the summers of 2000, 2002, and 2003) that have put a number of important values at risk. Although homes in the path of a wildfire are perhaps the most immediately recognized value, these wildfires also put numerous other human and ecological values at risk, such as power grids, drinking water supplies, firefighter safety, critical habitat, soil productivity, and air quality. For a given set of weather conditions, fire behavior is strongly influenced by stand and fuel structure. Crown fires in the dry forest types represent an increasing challenge for fire management as well as a general threat to the ecology of these forests and the closely associated human values. Crown fires are dependent on the sequence of available fuels starting from the ground surface to the canopy. Limiting crown fire in these forests can be accomplished by actions that manage in concert the surface, ladder, and crown fuels. Reducing crown fire and wildland fire growth across landscapes decreases the chances of developing large wildfires that affect human values adjacent to forested areas. However, a narrow focus on minimizing crown fire potential will not necessarily reduce the damage to homes and ecosystems when fires do occur. Homes are often ignited by embers flying far from the fire front, and by surface fires. Fire effects on ecosystems can also occur during surface fires where surface and understory fuels and deep organic layers are sufficient to generate high temperatures for long periods. Fuel treatments can help produce forest structures and fuel characteristics that then reduce the likelihood that wildfires will cause large, rapid changes in biophysical conditions. Fuel treatments can also help modify fire behavior sufficiently so that some wildfires can be suppressed more easily. Subsequent, sustained fuel treatments can maintain these conditions. Different fuel reduction methods target different components of the fuel bed. Thinning mainly affects standing vegetation, and other types of fuel treatments such as prescribed fire and pile burning woody fuels are needed to modify the combustion environment of surface fuels. In forests that have not experienced fire for many decades, multiple fuel treatments—that is, thinning and surface fuel reduction—may be required to significantly affect crown fire and surface fire hazard. Fuel treatments cannot guarantee benign fire behavior but can reduce the probability that extreme fire behavior will occur. Fuel treatments can be designed to restore forest conditions to a more resilient and resistant condition than now exists in many forests, and subsequent management could maintain these conditions, particularly in dry forests (ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir) where crown fires were historically infrequent. The degree of risk reduction will depend to some degree on the level of investment, social and economic acceptability of treatments, and concurrent consideration of other resource values (for example, wildlife). This report describes the kinds, quality, amount, and gaps of scientific knowledge for making informed decisions on fuel treatments used to modify wildfire behavior and effects in dry forests of the interior Western United States (especially forests dominated by ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir). A review of scientific principles and applications relevant to fuel treatment primarily for the dry forests is provided for the following topics: fuels, fire hazard, fire behavior, fire effects, forest structure, treatment effects and longevity, landscape fuel patterns, and scientific tools useful for management and planning.Key words: Thinning, fuel treatments, prescribed fire, dry forest

Public Acceptance of Wildland Fire and Fuel Management: Panel Responses in Seven Locations

Wildland fire affects both public and private resources throughout the United States. A century of fire suppression has contributed to changing ecological conditions and accumulated fuel loads. Managers have used a variety of approaches to address these conditions and reduce the likelihood of wildland fires that may result in adverse ecological impacts and threaten communities. Public acceptance is a critical component of developing and implementing successful management programs. This study examines the factors that influence citizen support for agency fuel reduction treatments over time—particularly prescribed fire and mechanical vegetation removal. This paper presents findings from a longitudinal study examining resident beliefs and attitudes regarding fire management and fuels treatments in seven states: Arizona, Colorado, Oregon, Utah, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. The study was implemented in two phases over a 6-year period using mail surveys to residents of communities adjacent to federal lands in each location. Questions replicated measures from the original project as well as some new items to allow a more in-depth analysis of key concepts. The study design enables comparisons over time as well as between locations. We also assess the factors that influence acceptance of both prescribed fire and mechanical vegetation removal. Findings demonstrate a relative stability of attitudes toward fuels management approaches over time and suggest that this acceptance is strongly influenced by confidence in resource managers and beliefs that the treatments would result in positive outcomes.Keywords: Wildland fire management, Public acceptance, Fuels reductio

Collaborating for Healthy Forests and Communities: A Guide for Building Partnerships Among Diverse Interests

There are many reasons for building an alliance among agencies and citizens in forest and rangeland communities. In the big picture, the purpose is primarily to reach decisions that are objectively better. Essentially, the quality of decisions is improved by a multi-agency effort that includes a role for citizens and an environment in which all can interact. From a practical standpoint, a collaborative approach provides the best strategy for restoring and maintaining healthy landscapes. Partnerships offer opportunities to experiment with management approaches, capitalize on local knowledge, and build support for decisions. Examples of working partnerships can be found in a wide-range of management settings. There is no single formula for building a partnership and partnerships per se are not a panacea; however, through extensive research, we have found a set of characteristics that are common to most partnership success stories. They are described in this guide to be used as a practical reference for agency personnel and citizens who seek to improve collaborative efforts in local communities.This field guide is a companion to the video program Collaborating for Healthy Forests and Communities: Building Partnerships Among Diverse Interests. The video showcases on-the-ground experiences of federal and state land managers, as well as community leaders, who are working together to overcome barriers, find agreement, and build partnerships. The field guide provides more detail and a practical approach that managers and local citizens can use to adapt the most useful tools and strategies to the needs of their own community.Keywords: Communication, Science Delivery, Citizen-Agency Interactions, Fire and Fuels Management, Partnerships, Collaboratio

Policy tools to encourage community-level defensible space in the United States: A tale of six communities

Within the wildland-urban interface (WUI), wildfire risk contains both individual and collective components. The likelihood that a particular home will be threatened by wildfire in any given year is low, but at a broader scale the likelihood that a home somewhere in the WUI will be threatened is substantially higher. From a risk mitigation perspective, individuals may take a number of actions to reduce risk exposure, but their risk is lowered even further when neighboring properties also take mitigation measures. Collectively, risk mitigation on individual properties lowers both individual and community-level risk. Multiple factors contribute to whether or not an individual will take action to reduce their risk; when an individual opts to not implement risk mitigation measures that would be beneficial from a community standpoint, community leaders can use a variety of policy tools to encourage the individual to adopt an action or change their behavior. As proposed by Schneider and Ingram in 1990, these include passing rules or regulations, building capacity, providing incentives, and establishing community norms. As part of a larger longitudinal study on WUI communities in the western United States, we reviewed approaches used by six communities in Idaho, Oregon and Utah to mitigate interdependent wildfire risk at two points in time. Each community’s approach was different, being well suited to meet the community’s specific needs. The most consistent policy tool utilized across communities was capacity-building, primarily through raising awareness of fire hazards and potential mitigation behaviors and leveraging external resources. Another commonality was the involvement of a central group or individual that provided leadership by initiating and championing the mitigation effort and serving as a link to external resources. There are a number of other communities in the WUI that are also at risk for wildfire; these findings can be useful to community members and agency personnel who are seeking to engage residents to reduce individual and collective risk. Within our communities, several different approaches have been effective at encouraging homeowners to adopt and maintain mitigation activities ranging from collective efforts organized locally to others developed externally to provide incentives or potential punishments for not adopting treatments. Understanding the diversity of approaches and activities that have fostered mitigation can help managers identify what will work best for their specific communities.Keywords: Mitigation, Community risk, Wildfire, Diffusion of Innovation

Social science research related to wildfire management: an overview of recent findings and future research needs

As with other aspects of natural-resource management, the approach to managing wildland fires has evolved over time as scientific understanding has advanced and the broader context surrounding management decisions has changed. Prior to 2000 the primary focus of most fire research was on the physical and ecological aspects of fire; social science research was limited to a small number of studies. However, as more people moved into fire-prone areas interest grew in understanding relevant social dynamics. This growing interest was supported by increased funding for fire research overall with the creation of the Joint Fire Science Program in 1998 and the National Fire Plan in 2000. In subsequent years, a significant body of research has developed on the human dimensions of wildland fire covering diverse topics including: attitudes towards pre-fire mitigation, social acceptability of fire and fuels management, community preparedness, public response during fires, citizen–agency communications and post-fire recovery. This paper reports on two aspects of a Joint Fire Science Program project intended to take stock of the key social science lessons provided to date: a basic review of findings in the non-economic fire social science literature and identification of future research needs.Keywords: Communication and outreach, Fuels management, Homeowner mitigation, Community preparedness, Risk perception, trust, Public acceptance, Citizen–agency interaction