Produção de sideróforo pela bactéria Bacillus megaterium

Os agentes quelantes, como é o caso do EDTA, são utilizados numa ampla variedade de indústrias como a indústria têxtil, da pasta de papel, alimentar, de cosméticos ou de detergentes. Contudo, os agentes complexantes sintéticos, habitualmente usados, não são biodegradáveis, pelo que a sua acumulação no meio ambiente constitui motivo de preocupação. Deste modo, existe um interesse crescente na substituição destes compostos por compostos similares biodegradáveis sendo, deste modo, ambientalmente amigáveis. Alguns microrganismos são capazes de produzir moléculas com capacidade de captar metais. Um desses exemplos são os sideróforos: compostos produzidos por bactérias, fungos e plantas gramíneas, com capacidade de formar quelatos muito estáveis com o ferro. A presente dissertação teve como objetivo estudar o efeito de diferentes condições culturais e nutricionais na produção de sideróforo pela bactéria Bacillus megaterium. A avaliação da produção de sideróforo, utilizando o método colorimétrico Chrome Azurol S (CAS), durante o crescimento da bactéria, em meio de cultura deficiente em ferro, na presença de 5 ou de 20 g/L de glucose, mostrou que o início da sua produção ocorre, durante a fase exponencial de crescimento, não está relacionada com a esporulação e não é afetada pela concentração de glucose. Contudo, o crescimento da bactéria na presença de diferentes fontes de carbono (glicerol, frutose, galactose, glucose, manose, lactose, maltose ou sacarose) evidenciou que a produção de sideróforo é afetada pelo tipo de fonte de carbono. O crescimento na presença de glicerol promoveu a maior produção de sideróforo; efeito inverso foi observado na presença de manose. A bactéria B. megaterium, quando crescida na presença de frutose, galactose, glucose, lactose, maltose ou sacarose, produziu concentrações similares de sideróforo. O aumento da concentração de arginina, no meio de cultura, não aumentou a produção de sideróforo. A agitação apresentou um efeito positivo na produção de sideróforo; o crescimento em condições estáticas atrasou e diminuiu a produção de sideróforo. Em conclusão, o glicerol parece constituir uma fonte de carbono alternativa, aos monossacáridos e dissacáridos, para a produção de sideróforo. A agitação apresenta um efeito positivo na produção de sideróforo pela bactéria B. megaterium ATCC 19213.The chelating agents, such as EDTA, are used in a wide variety of industries, for instance, textile, pulp and paper, food, cosmetic or detergent industries. However, the commonly used synthetic complexing agents are not biodegradable. By this reason, they are accumulated in the environment, which is a matter of concern. Thus, there is a growing interest in replacing these compounds by similar, biodegradable and environment- friendly chelating compounds. Some microorganisms are able to produce molecules with ability to capture metals. Siderophores are one of these types of molecules. Siderophores are compounds produced by bacteria, fungi and grass plants, able of forming very stable complexes with iron. This work aimed to study the effect of different cultural and nutritional conditions in siderophore production by the bacterium Bacillus megaterium. The production of siderophore was evaluated using the colorimetric method Chrome Azurol S (CAS). The growing of the bacteria, in a culture medium iron-deficient, in the presence of 5 or 20 g/L glucose, showed that the initiation of siderophore production occurred during the exponential growth phase, was not related with sporulation and was not affected by glucose concentration. However, growth of bacteria in the presence of various carbon sources (glycerol, fructose, galactose, glucose, mannose, lactose, maltose or sucrose) showed that siderophore production is affected by the type of carbon source. The growth on glycerol promoted an increased production of siderophore; opposite effect was observed in the presence of mannose. B. megaterium, when grown in the presence of fructose, galactose, glucose, lactose, maltose or sucrose, produced similar concentrations of siderophore. The increase of arginine concentration, in the culture medium, did not increase the production of siderophore. Stirring had a positive effect on the production of siderophore; growth under static conditions delayed and reduced the production of siderophore. In conclusion, glycerol appears to be an alternative carbon source, to monosaccharides and disaccharides, for the production of siderophore. Stirring has a positive effect on siderophore production by the bacterium B. megaterium ATCC 19213

Constituição Anotada da República Democrática de Timor-Leste

A independência de Timor-Leste, proclamada pela Frente Revolucionária do Timor-Leste Independente (FRETILIN) em 28 de novembro de 1975, vê-se internacionalmente reconhecida a 20 de maio de 2002, uma vez concretizada a libertação do povo timorense da colonização e da ocupação ilegal da Pátria Maubere por potências estrangeiras. A elaboração e adoção da Constituição da República Democrática de Timor- -Leste culminam a secular resistência do povo timorense, intensificada com a invasão de 7 de dezembro de 1975. A luta travada contra o inimigo, inicialmente sob a liderança da FRETILIN, deu lugar a formas mais abrangentes de participação política, com a criação sucessiva do Conselho Nacional de Resistência Maubere (CNRM), em 1987, e do Conselho Nacional de Resistência Timorense (CNRT), em 1998. A Resistência desdobrou-se em três frentes. A frente armada foi protagonizada pelas gloriosas Forças Armadas de Libertação Nacional de Timor-Leste (FALINTIL), cuja gesta histórica cabe exaltar. A ação da frente clandestina, astutamente desencadeada em território hostil, envolveu o sacrifício de milhares de vidas de mulheres e homens, em especial jovens, que lutaram com abnegação em prol da liberdade e independência. A frente diplomática, conjugadamente desenvolvida em todo o Mundo, permitiu abrir caminho para a libertação definitiva. Na sua vertente cultural e humana, a Igreja Católica em Timor-Leste sempre soube assumir com dignidade o sofrimento de todo o Povo, colocando-se ao seu lado na defesa dos seus mais elementares direitos. Esta Constituição representa, finalmente, uma sentida homenagem a todos os mártires da Pátria. Assim, os Deputados da Assembleia Constituinte, legítimos representantes do Povo eleitos a 30 de agosto de 2001; Alicerçados ainda no ato referendário de 30 de agosto de 1999, que, concretizado sob os auspícios da Organização das Nações Unidas, confirmou a vontade autodeterminada de independência; Plenamente conscientes da necessidade de se erigir uma cultura democrática e institucional própria de um Estado de Direito onde o respeito pela Constituição, pelas leis e pelas instituições democraticamente eleitas sejam a sua base inquestionável; Interpretando o profundo sentimento, as aspirações e a fé em Deus do povo de Timor-Leste; Reafirmam solenemente a sua determinação em combater todas as formas de tirania, opressão, dominação e segregação social, cultural ou religiosa, defender a independência nacional, respeitar e garantir os direitos humanos e os direitos fundamentais do cidadão, assegurar o princípio da separação de poderes na organização do Estado e estabelecer as regras essenciais da democracia pluralista, tendo em vista a construção de um país justo e próspero e o desenvolvimento de uma sociedade solidária e fraterna. A Assembleia Constituinte, reunida na sessão plenária de 22 de março de 2002, aprova e decreta a seguinte Constituição da República Democrática de Timor-Leste

Nationwide access to endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke in portugal

Publisher Copyright: Copyright Ordem dos M dicos 2021.Introduction: Since the publication of endovascular treatment trials and European Stroke Guidelines, Portugal has re-organized stroke healthcare. The nine centers performing endovascular treatment are not equally distributed within the country, which may lead to differential access to endovascular treatment. Our main aim was to perform a descriptive analysis of the main treatment metrics regarding endovascular treatment in mainland Portugal and its administrative districts. Material and Methods: A retrospective national multicentric cohort study was conducted, including all ischemic stroke patients treated with endovascular treatment in mainland Portugal over two years (July 2015 to June 2017). All endovascular treatment centers contributed to an anonymized database. Demographic, stroke-related and procedure-related variables were collected. Crude endovascular treatment rates were calculated per 100 000 inhabitants for mainland Portugal, and each district and endovascular treatment standardized ratios (indirect age-sex standardization) were also calculated. Patient time metrics were computed as the median time between stroke onset, first-door, and puncture. Results: A total of 1625 endovascular treatment procedures were registered. The endovascular treatment rate was 8.27/100 000 inhabitants/year. We found regional heterogeneity in endovascular treatment rates (1.58 to 16.53/100 000/year), with higher rates in districts closer to endovascular treatment centers. When analyzed by district, the median time from stroke onset to puncture ranged from 212 to 432 minutes, reflecting regional heterogeneity. Discussion: Overall endovascular treatment rates and procedural times in Portugal are comparable to other international registries. We found geographic heterogeneity, with lower endovascular treatment rates and longer onset-to-puncture time in southern and inner regions. Conclusion: The overall national rate of EVT in the first two years after the organization of EVT-capable centers is one of the highest among European countries, however, significant regional disparities were documented. Moreover, stroke-onset-to-first-door times and in-hospital procedural times in the EVT centers were comparable to those reported in the randomized controlled trials performed in high-volume tertiary hospitalspublishersversionpublishe

Acesso a Tratamento Endovascular para Acidente Vascular Cerebral Isquémico em Portugal

Introduction: Since the publication of endovascular treatment trials and European Stroke Guidelines, Portugal has re-organized stroke healthcare. The nine centers performing endovascular treatment are not equally distributed within the country, which may lead to differential access to endovascular treatment. Our main aim was to perform a descriptive analysis of the main treatment metrics regarding endovascular treatment in mainland Portugal and its administrative districts. Material and Methods: A retrospective national multicentric cohort study was conducted, including all ischemic stroke patients treated with endovascular treatment in mainland Portugal over two years (July 2015 to June 2017). All endovascular treatment centers contributed to an anonymized database. Demographic, stroke-related and procedure-related variables were collected. Crude endovascular treatment rates were calculated per 100 000 inhabitants for mainland Portugal, and each district and endovascular treatment standardized ratios (indirect age-sex standardization) were also calculated. Patient time metrics were computed as the median time between stroke onset, first-door, and puncture. Results: A total of 1625 endovascular treatment procedures were registered. The endovascular treatment rate was 8.27/100 000 inhabitants/year. We found regional heterogeneity in endovascular treatment rates (1.58 to 16.53/100 000/year), with higher rates in districts closer to endovascular treatment centers. When analyzed by district, the median time from stroke onset to puncture ranged from 212 to 432 minutes, reflecting regional heterogeneity. Conclusion: The overall national rate of EVT in the first two years after the organization of EVT-capable centers is one of the highest among European countries, however, significant regional disparities were documented. Moreover, stroke-onset-to-first-door times and in-hospital procedural times in the EVT centers were comparable to those reported in the randomized controlled trials performed in high-volume tertiary hospitals.Introdução: A aprovação do tratamento endovascular para o acidente vascular cerebral isquémico obrigou à reorganização dos cuidados de saúde em Portugal. Os nove centros que realizam tratamento endovascular não estão distribuídos equitativamente pelo território, o que poderá causar acesso diferencial a tratamento. O principal objetivo deste estudo é realizar uma análise descritiva da frequência e métricas temporais do tratamento endovascular em Portugal continental e seus distritos. Material e Métodos: Estudo de coorte nacional multicêntrico, incluindo todos os doentes com acidente vascular cerebral isquémico submetidos a tratamento endovascular em Portugal continental durante um período de dois anos (julho 2015 a junho 2017). Foram colhidos dados demográficos, relacionados com o acidente vascular cerebral e variáveis do procedimento. Taxas de tratamento endovascular brutas e ajustadas (ajuste indireto a idade e sexo) foram calculadas por 100 000 habitantes/ano para Portugal continental e cada distrito. Métricas de procedimento como tempo entre instalação, primeira porta e punção foram também analisadas. Resultados: Foram registados 1625 tratamentos endovasculares, indicando uma taxa bruta nacional de tratamento endovascular de 8,27/100 000 habitantes/ano. As taxas de tratamento endovascular entre distritos variaram entre 1,58 e 16,53/100 000/ano, com taxas mais elevadas nos distritos próximos a hospitais com tratamento endovascular. O tempo entre sintomas e punção femural entre distritos variou entre 212 e 432 minutos. Conclusão: Portugal continental apresenta uma taxa nacional de tratamento endovascular elevada, apresentando, contudo, assimetrias regionais no acesso. As métricas temporais foram comparáveis com as observadas nos ensaios clínicos piloto

Height and body-mass index trajectories of school-aged children and adolescents from 1985 to 2019 in 200 countries and territories: a pooled analysis of 2181 population-based studies with 65 million participants

Summary Background Comparable global data on health and nutrition of school-aged children and adolescents are scarce. We aimed to estimate age trajectories and time trends in mean height and mean body-mass index (BMI), which measures weight gain beyond what is expected from height gain, for school-aged children and adolescents. Methods For this pooled analysis, we used a database of cardiometabolic risk factors collated by the Non-Communicable Disease Risk Factor Collaboration. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends from 1985 to 2019 in mean height and mean BMI in 1-year age groups for ages 5–19 years. The model allowed for non-linear changes over time in mean height and mean BMI and for non-linear changes with age of children and adolescents, including periods of rapid growth during adolescence. Findings We pooled data from 2181 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in 65 million participants in 200 countries and territories. In 2019, we estimated a difference of 20 cm or higher in mean height of 19-year-old adolescents between countries with the tallest populations (the Netherlands, Montenegro, Estonia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina for boys; and the Netherlands, Montenegro, Denmark, and Iceland for girls) and those with the shortest populations (Timor-Leste, Laos, Solomon Islands, and Papua New Guinea for boys; and Guatemala, Bangladesh, Nepal, and Timor-Leste for girls). In the same year, the difference between the highest mean BMI (in Pacific island countries, Kuwait, Bahrain, The Bahamas, Chile, the USA, and New Zealand for both boys and girls and in South Africa for girls) and lowest mean BMI (in India, Bangladesh, Timor-Leste, Ethiopia, and Chad for boys and girls; and in Japan and Romania for girls) was approximately 9–10 kg/m2. In some countries, children aged 5 years started with healthier height or BMI than the global median and, in some cases, as healthy as the best performing countries, but they became progressively less healthy compared with their comparators as they grew older by not growing as tall (eg, boys in Austria and Barbados, and girls in Belgium and Puerto Rico) or gaining too much weight for their height (eg, girls and boys in Kuwait, Bahrain, Fiji, Jamaica, and Mexico; and girls in South Africa and New Zealand). In other countries, growing children overtook the height of their comparators (eg, Latvia, Czech Republic, Morocco, and Iran) or curbed their weight gain (eg, Italy, France, and Croatia) in late childhood and adolescence. When changes in both height and BMI were considered, girls in South Korea, Vietnam, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and some central Asian countries (eg, Armenia and Azerbaijan), and boys in central and western Europe (eg, Portugal, Denmark, Poland, and Montenegro) had the healthiest changes in anthropometric status over the past 3·5 decades because, compared with children and adolescents in other countries, they had a much larger gain in height than they did in BMI. The unhealthiest changes—gaining too little height, too much weight for their height compared with children in other countries, or both—occurred in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa, New Zealand, and the USA for boys and girls; in Malaysia and some Pacific island nations for boys; and in Mexico for girls. Interpretation The height and BMI trajectories over age and time of school-aged children and adolescents are highly variable across countries, which indicates heterogeneous nutritional quality and lifelong health advantages and risks

Contributions of mean and shape of blood pressure distribution to worldwide trends and variations in raised blood pressure: A pooled analysis of 1018 population-based measurement studies with 88.6 million participants

© The Author(s) 2018. Background: Change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure could be due to both shifts in the entire distribution of blood pressure (representing the combined effects of public health interventions and secular trends) and changes in its high-blood-pressure tail (representing successful clinical interventions to control blood pressure in the hypertensive population). Our aim was to quantify the contributions of these two phenomena to the worldwide trends in the prevalence of raised blood pressure. Methods: We pooled 1018 population-based studies with blood pressure measurements on 88.6 million participants from 1985 to 2016. We first calculated mean systolic blood pressure (SBP), mean diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and prevalence of raised blood pressure by sex and 10-year age group from 20-29 years to 70-79 years in each study, taking into account complex survey design and survey sample weights, where relevant. We used a linear mixed effect model to quantify the association between (probittransformed) prevalence of raised blood pressure and age-group- and sex-specific mean blood pressure. We calculated the contributions of change in mean SBP and DBP, and of change in the prevalence-mean association, to the change in prevalence of raised blood pressure. Results: In 2005-16, at the same level of population mean SBP and DBP, men and women in South Asia and in Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would have the highest prevalence of raised blood pressure, and men and women in the highincome Asia Pacific and high-income Western regions would have the lowest. In most region-sex-age groups where the prevalence of raised blood pressure declined, one half or more of the decline was due to the decline in mean blood pressure. Where prevalence of raised blood pressure has increased, the change was entirely driven by increasing mean blood pressure, offset partly by the change in the prevalence-mean association. Conclusions: Change in mean blood pressure is the main driver of the worldwide change in the prevalence of raised blood pressure, but change in the high-blood-pressure tail of the distribution has also contributed to the change in prevalence, especially in older age groups

Worldwide trends in underweight and obesity from 1990 to 2022: a pooled analysis of 3663 population-representative studies with 222 million children, adolescents, and adults

Background Underweight and obesity are associated with adverse health outcomes throughout the life course. We estimated the individual and combined prevalence of underweight or thinness and obesity, and their changes, from 1990 to 2022 for adults and school-aged children and adolescents in 200 countries and territories. Methods We used data from 3663 population-based studies with 222 million participants that measured height and weight in representative samples of the general population. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in the prevalence of different BMI categories, separately for adults (age ≥20 years) and school-aged children and adolescents (age 5–19 years), from 1990 to 2022 for 200 countries and territories. For adults, we report the individual and combined prevalence of underweight (BMI <18·5 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m2). For schoolaged children and adolescents, we report thinness (BMI <2 SD below the median of the WHO growth reference) and obesity (BMI >2 SD above the median). Findings From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity in adults decreased in 11 countries (6%) for women and 17 (9%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 that the observed changes were true decreases. The combined prevalence increased in 162 countries (81%) for women and 140 countries (70%) for men with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. In 2022, the combined prevalence of underweight and obesity was highest in island nations in the Caribbean and Polynesia and Micronesia, and countries in the Middle East and north Africa. Obesity prevalence was higher than underweight with posterior probability of at least 0·80 in 177 countries (89%) for women and 145 (73%) for men in 2022, whereas the converse was true in 16 countries (8%) for women, and 39 (20%) for men. From 1990 to 2022, the combined prevalence of thinness and obesity decreased among girls in five countries (3%) and among boys in 15 countries (8%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80, and increased among girls in 140 countries (70%) and boys in 137 countries (69%) with a posterior probability of at least 0·80. The countries with highest combined prevalence of thinness and obesity in school-aged children and adolescents in 2022 were in Polynesia and Micronesia and the Caribbean for both sexes, and Chile and Qatar for boys. Combined prevalence was also high in some countries in south Asia, such as India and Pakistan, where thinness remained prevalent despite having declined. In 2022, obesity in school-aged children and adolescents was more prevalent than thinness with a posterior probability of at least 0·80 among girls in 133 countries (67%) and boys in 125 countries (63%), whereas the converse was true in 35 countries (18%) and 42 countries (21%), respectively. In almost all countries for both adults and school-aged children and adolescents, the increases in double burden were driven by increases in obesity, and decreases in double burden by declining underweight or thinness. Interpretation The combined burden of underweight and obesity has increased in most countries, driven by an increase in obesity, while underweight and thinness remain prevalent in south Asia and parts of Africa. A healthy nutrition transition that enhances access to nutritious foods is needed to address the remaining burden of underweight while curbing and reversing the increase in obesit

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. Methods: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. Findings: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. Interpretation: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic

Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950–2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020–21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5–65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020–21; 5·1% [0·9–9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98–5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50–6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126–137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7–17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8–24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7–51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9–72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0–2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67–8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4–52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0–44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation