Anthrax in the East Kazakhstan Region

Almost every year in Kazakhstan, cases of diseases of animals and people with anthrax are recorded. The incidence rate of people with anthrax in the period from 2000 to 2018 ranged from 0.01 to 0.24 per 100 thousand people. In the territory of the East Kazakhstan region, the incidence rate is higher than in the republic.Objective: a retrospective analysis of anthrax outbreaks in the East Kazakhstan region from 2000 to 2018.Methods: a retrospective analysis using statistical, cadastral data, archival funds, the results of participation in the investigation of outbreaks of infection.Results. Since 1938, cases of animal and human disease of anthrax have been recorded in East Kazakhstan. Infection of humans occurs during the slaughter of animals. In Zharma, Urjar, and Ayagozskiy areas most of all are anthrax foci of soil. In 67 % of cases, outbreaks of anthrax were recorded in these areas.Conclusion. The relative incidence rate of anthrax in people in East Kazakhstan is from 0.07 to 0.27, since 2001 it is higher than the republican indicator.In the East Kazakhstan region from 1997 to 2018, 37 people fell ill with anthrax. The form of the disease is skin, in 8.1 % secondary sepsis. In the remaining patients, the diseases were mild (70.3 %), ended in recovery. The source of human infection is mainly cattle. The isolated strains of B. anthracis have typical properties, they are included in cluster A1a, A3b (MLVA-8). The strains isolated in 2016 are similar to the strains isolated in the Almaty region (MLVA-25). Grouped with a number of European, Asian and African strains from France, Germany, Italy, Tajikistan, Pakistan, Korea and Namibia. The presence of a significant number of soil foci of anthrax in the territory of the East Kazakhstan region, not fully the implementation of veterinary and sanitary preventive measures leads to an exacerbation of the situation for anthrax

Accuracy of EIDSS Software Prognosis on CCHF Natural Foci Activity in Kazakhstan

Based on the actual situation in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for the first half of 2013, the authors, using EIDSS version 4, evaluated the accuracy of the earlier prognosis of situation development in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for 2013 (EIDSS Application for CCHF Foci Activity Epi-Analysis and Prediction in Kazakhstan). The prognosis of situation development in 2013 for 11 districts of Kazakhstan (estimated in 2012 as the districts with a high risk of CCHF) proved to be accurate in 90.9% of cases.

Accuracy of EIDSS Software Prognosis on CCHF Natural Foci Activity in Kazakhstan

Based on the actual situation in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for the first half of 2013, the authors, using EIDSS version 4, evaluated the accuracy of the earlier prognosis of situation development in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for 2013 (EIDSS Application for CCHF Foci Activity Epi-Analysis and Prediction in Kazakhstan). The prognosis of situation development in 2013 for 11 districts of Kazakhstan (estimated in 2012 as the districts with a high risk of CCHF) proved to be accurate in 90.9% of cases.