Methodology of Epidemic Risk Management in Kazakhstan with Open-Source EIDSS

In order to transition the forecasting, estimation and management of epidemic risks to individual administrative areas, the Agency for Consumer Rights Protection of Kazakhstan has developed the Regional Sanitary-Epidemiological Passport (RSEP). The RSEP will contain information on the infectious incidence rate dynamics according to the main infections (7 nosologies) with a forecast for 2-3 years, and natural and soil foci GIS maps for especially dangerous pathogens with their activity forecast for 3-5 years. Approbation of RSEP was conducted for the Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. Planned work includes estimation method adjustment, retrospective databank formation, GIS archive creation and Open-source EIDSS system application

Accuracy of EIDSS Software Prognosis on CCHF Natural Foci Activity in Kazakhstan

Based on the actual situation in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for the first half of 2013, the authors, using EIDSS version 4, evaluated the accuracy of the earlier prognosis of situation development in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for 2013 (EIDSS Application for CCHF Foci Activity Epi-Analysis and Prediction in Kazakhstan). The prognosis of situation development in 2013 for 11 districts of Kazakhstan (estimated in 2012 as the districts with a high risk of CCHF) proved to be accurate in 90.9% of cases.

Accuracy of EIDSS Software Prognosis on CCHF Natural Foci Activity in Kazakhstan

Based on the actual situation in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for the first half of 2013, the authors, using EIDSS version 4, evaluated the accuracy of the earlier prognosis of situation development in the CCHF natural foci of Kazakhstan for 2013 (EIDSS Application for CCHF Foci Activity Epi-Analysis and Prediction in Kazakhstan). The prognosis of situation development in 2013 for 11 districts of Kazakhstan (estimated in 2012 as the districts with a high risk of CCHF) proved to be accurate in 90.9% of cases.