Forecasting Forest Vulnerability to Drought in Pyrenean Silver Fir Forests Showing Dieback

Forest dieback is manifested as widespread loss of tree vigor, growth decline and high mortality rates. Forest dieback is becoming increasingly frequent and extended, particularly in drought-prone regions. This is the case of the south-western Spanish Pyrenees, where keystone species such as Silver fir reach their xeric and southern distribution limits. While dieback of this species has been widely documented in this area, we still lack methodologies to forecast the vulnerability of these forests in response to increasing drought stress so as to anticipate their potential dieback in the future. Here we study multiple features of Silver fir forests and trees to evaluate whether previous growth rates and their growth trends are valid predictors of forest dieback. Further, we validate our methodology revisiting two Silver fir sites sampled two decades ago. The defoliation degree was strongly related with radial growth, and growth trends differed between moderately to highly defoliated trees and non-defoliated trees. Forests showing dieback, i.e., those in which 25% of the sampled trees showed defoliation > 50%, were located at low elevation and received less rainfall in summer than forests showing no dieback. Trees showing high defoliation presented lower growth rates than non-defoliated trees. Moreover, we ratified that defoliation has increased considerably over the last two decades in one of the two revisited sites, but we were unable to accurately forecast growth trends in both sites, particularly in the site not showing dieback. The retrospective assessment of growth rates and trends offers valuable information on the vulnerability of Silver fir trees to drought. However, we are still far from being able to forecast the vulnerability of Silver fir forests to increasing drought. A systematic monitoring of growth across a wide tree-ring network of sites might provide valuable information to advance in this direction

Delineating limits: Confronting predicted climatic suitability to field performance in mistletoe populations

1. Biotic stressors such as hemiparasites have a profound impact on forest functioning. However, predicting the future incidence of these stressors on forests remains challenging because climate-based distribution does not consider tree-hemiparasite interactions or the impacts of extreme climate events on stressors'' performance. 2. We use species distribution models (SDMs) and ecophysiological and demographic field data to assess whether climatic suitability is a proxy for the performance of the hemiparasite mistletoe (Viscum album) in two forests with contrasting climatic conditions. Two host tree species representing wet-cold (Scots pine) and dry-warm (Aleppo pine) conditions were selected. We fitted SDMs based on climate variables, and measured different ecophysiological variables capturing cold- (photoinhibition) and drought tolerance (intrinsic water-use efficiency, iWUE). We also assessed demographic variables related to seed germination and establishment rates of mistletoe through a translocation experiment. 3. Species distribution models showed a high climatic suitability of mistletoe in both forests. Mistletoes living in the Scots pines site presented a higher cold tolerance, while those inhabiting the Aleppo pine site showed a higher iWUE. Seedlings coming from local seeds showed a lower mortality than seedlings coming from translocated seeds. Germination and seedling establishment showed temporal mismatches when comparing local and translocated seeds. 4. Synthesis. Habitat suitability predicted by SDMs based on climate data and field performance were related in this mistletoe species. However, ecophysiological and demographic variables indicated a lower fitness of mistletoe in the dry-warm site associated with drought stress. In conclusion, predicted climate suitability based on SDMs forecasts should be refined using field data on actual performance and considering plant-to-plant interactions and extreme climate events

Long- and short-term impacts of a defoliating moth plus mistletoe on tree growth, wood anatomy and water-use efficiency

Climate warming and biotic stressors are expected to reduce tree radial growth and performance at short and long time scales. However, the impacts of different biotic stressors on performance throughout a tree's life are largely understudied. Here we assessed the effects of a past nun moth (Lymantria dispar) outbreak and related defoliation on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) trees, which were later severely infested by the hemiparasite mistletoe (Viscum album subsp. austriacum). We compared the responses of trees severely infested or not infested by mistletoe in a wet vs. a dry site to quantify the relative importance of biotic stressors under different climate conditions. We used dendrochronology to quantify: long- and short-term changes in radial growth (resilience), differences in wood anatomy during the outbreak, and recent changes in intrinsic water-use efficiency (WUEi). The outbreak caused a sharp growth reduction in 1953 (50% decrease in basal area increment –BAI) and the formation of tracheids of small transversal lumen diameter (33% decrease in diameter). Recent mistletoe infestation caused a difference in growth between infested and non-infested trees lasting 34 and 21 years in the wet and dry sites, respectively. Growth (BAI) decreased more steeply in severely infested than in non-infested trees, the post-drought resilience decreased in severely infested trees, and the WUEi increased, particularly in the dry site. The BAI of severely infested trees was more negatively impacted by warm and dry conditions during the growing season than in non-infested trees, particularly in the dry site. Tree rings recorded historical effects of biotic stressors (L. monacha outbreak), which may constrain responses to recent stressors (mistletoe)

Growing faster, longer or both? Modelling plastic response of Juniperus communis growth phenology to climate change

Aim: Plant growth and phenology respond plastically to changing climatic conditions in both space and time. Species-specific levels of growth plasticity determine biogeographical patterns and the adaptive capacity of species to climate change. However, a direct assessment of spatial and temporal variability in radial growth dynamics is complicated, because long records of cambial phenology do not exist. Location: Sixteen sites across European distribution margins of Juniperus communis L. (the Mediterranean, the Arctic, the Alps and the Urals). Time period: 1940\u20132016. Major taxa studied: Juniperus communis. Methods: We applied the Vaganov\u2013Shashkin process-based model of wood formation to estimate trends in growing season duration and growth kinetics since 1940. We assumed that J.\ua0communis would exhibit spatially and temporally variable growth patterns reflecting local climatic conditions. Results: Our simulations indicate regional differences in growth dynamics and plastic responses to climate warming. The mean growing season duration is the longest at Mediterranean sites and, recently, there has been a significant trend towards its extension of up to\ua00.44\ua0days/year. However, this stimulating effect of a longer growing season is counteracted by declining summer growth rates caused by amplified drought stress. Consequently, overall trends in simulated ring widths are marginal in the Mediterranean. In contrast, durations of growing seasons in the Arctic show lower and mostly non-significant trends. However, spring and summer growth rates follow increasing temperatures, leading to a growth increase of up to\ua00.32 %/year. Main conclusions: This study highlights the plasticity in growth phenology of widely distributed shrubs to climate warming: an earlier onset of cambial activity that offsets the negative effects of summer droughts in the Mediterranean and, conversely, an intensification of growth rates during the short growing seasons in the Arctic. Such plastic growth responsiveness allows woody plants to adapt to the local pace of climate change

Forest and woodland replacement patterns following drought-related mortality

Forest vulnerability to drought is expected to increase under anthropogenic climate change, and drought-induced mortality and community dynamics following drought have major ecological and societal impacts. Here,we showthat tree mortality concomitant with drought has led to short-term (mean 5 y, range 1 to 23 y after mortality) vegetation-type conversion in multiple biomes across the world (131 sites). Self-replacement of the dominant tree species was only prevalent in 21% of the examined cases and forests and woodlands shifted to nonwoody vegetation in 10% of them. The ultimate temporal persistence of such changes remains unknown but, given the key role of biological legacies in long-term ecological succession, this emerging picture of postdrought ecological trajectories highlights the potential for major ecosystem reorganization in the coming decades. Community changes were less pronounced under wetter postmortality conditions. Replacement was also influenced by management intensity, and postdrought shrub dominance was higher when pathogens acted as codrivers of tree mortality. Early change in community composition indicates that forests dominated by mesic species generally shifted toward more xeric communities, with replacing tree and shrub species exhibiting drier bioclimatic optima and distribution ranges. However, shifts toward more mesic communities also occurred and multiple pathways of forest replacement were observed for some species. Drought characteristics, species-specific environmental preferences, plant traits, and ecosystem legacies govern postdrought species turnover and subsequent ecological trajectories, with potential far-reaching implications for forest biodiversity and ecosystem services