Projecting the 10-year costs of care and mortality burden of depression until 2032: a Markov modelling study developed from real-world data

Background Based on real-world data, we developed a 10-year prediction model to estimate the burden among patients with depression from the public healthcare system payer's perspective to inform early resource planning in Hong Kong. Methods We developed a Markov cohort model with yearly cycles specifically capturing the pathway of treatment-resistant depression (TRD) and comorbidity development along the disease course. Projected from 2023 to 2032, primary outcomes included costs of all-cause and psychiatric care, and secondary outcomes were all-cause deaths, years of life lived, and quality-adjusted life-years. Using the territory-wide electronic medical records, we identified 25,190 patients aged ≥10 years with newly diagnosed depression from 2014 to 2016 with follow-up until 2020 to observe the real-world time-to-event pattern, based on which costs and time-varying transition inputs were derived using negative binomial modelling and parametric survival analysis. We applied the model as both closed cohort, which studied a fixed cohort of incident patients in 2023, and open cohort, which introduced incident patients by year from 2014 to 2032. Utilities and annual new patients were from published sources. Findings With 9217 new patients in 2023, our closed cohort model projected the 10-year cumulative costs of all-cause and psychiatric care to reach US$309.0 million and US$58.3 million, respectively, with 899 deaths (case fatality rate: 9.8%) by 2032. In our open cohort model, 55,849–57,896 active prevalent cases would cost more than US$322.3 million and US$60.7 million, respectively, with more than 943 deaths annually from 2023 to 2032. Fewer than 20% of cases would live with TRD or comorbidities but contribute 31–54% of the costs. The greatest collective burden would occur in women aged above 40, but men aged above 65 and below 25 with medical history would have the highest costs per patient-year. The key cost drivers were relevant to the early disease stages. Interpretation A limited proportion of patients would develop TRD and comorbidities but contribute to a high proportion of costs, which necessitates appropriate attention and resource allocation. Our projection also demonstrates the application of real-world data to model long-term costs and mortality, which aid policymakers anticipate foreseeable burden and undertake budget planning to prepare for the care need in alternative scenarios

Depression risk among community-dwelling older people is associated with perceived COVID-19 infection risk: effects of news report latency and focusing on number of infected cases

Objectives: Awareness of COVID-19 infection risk and oscillation patterns (‘waves’) may affect older people’s mental health. Empirical data from populations experiencing multiple waves of community outbreaks can inform guidance for maintaining mental health. This study aims to investigate the effects of COVID-19 infection risk and oscillations on depression among community-dwelling older people in Hong Kong. Methods: A rolling cross-sectional telephone survey method was used. Screening for depression risk was conducted among 8,163 older people (age ≥ 60) using the Patient Health Questionnaire-2 (PHQ-2) from February to August 2020. The relationships between PHQ-2, COVID-19 infection risk proxies–change in newly infected cases and effective reproductive number (Rt), and oscillations–stage of a ‘wave’ reported in the media, were analysed using correlation and regression. Results: 8.4% of survey respondents screened positive for depression risk. Being female (β =.08), having a pre-existing mental health issue (β =.21), change in newly infected cases (β =.05), and screening during the latency period before the media called out new waves (β =.03), contributed to higher depression risk (R 2 =.06, all p <.01). Conclusion: While depression risk does not appear alarming in this sample, our results highlight that older people are sensitive to reporting of infection, particularly among those with existing mental health needs. Future public health communication should balance awareness of infection risks with mental health protection

Proceedings from an International Virtual Townhall: Reflecting on the COVID-19 Pandemic: Themes from Long-Term Care

Residents of long-term care (LTC) homes have suffered disproportionately during the COVID-19 pandemic, from the virus itself and often from the imposition of lockdown measures. Provincial Geriatrics Leadership Ontario, in collaboration with interRAI and the International Federation on Aging, hosted a virtual Town Hall on September 25, 2020. The purpose of this event was to bring together international perspectives from researchers, clinicians, and policy experts to address important themes potentially amenable to timely policy interventions. This article summarizes these themes and the ensuing discussions among 130 attendees from 5 continents. The disproportionate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on frail residents of LTC homes reflects a systematic lack of equitable prioritization by health system decision makers around the world. The primary risk factors for an outbreak in an LTC home were outbreaks in the surrounding community, high staff and visitor traffic in large facilities, and crowding of residents in ageing buildings. Infection control measures must be prioritized in LTC homes, though care must be taken to protect frail and vulnerable residents from their overly blunt application that deprives residents from appropriate physical and psychosocial support. Staffing, in terms of overall numbers, training, and leadership skills, was inadequate. The built environment of LTC homes can be configured for both optimal resident well-being and infection control. Infection control and resident wellness need not be mutually exclusive. Improving outcomes for LTC residents requires more staffing with proper training and interprofessional leadership. All these initiatives must be underpinned by an effective quality assurance system based on standardized, comprehensive, accessible, and clinically relevant data, and which can support broad communities of practice capable of effecting real and meaningful change for frail older persons, wherever they chose to reside