Changes in social security eligibility and the international mobility of New Zealand citizens in Australia

This paper is concerned with the international mobility of New Zealanders who migrate to Australia. One in ten New Zealand citizens lives in Australia and their settlement and subsequent mobility is important from demographic, socio-economic and policy perspectives in both countries. Using a unique longitudinal dataset on New Zealand citizens arriving for a stay of 12 months or longer between 1 August 1999 and 31 July 2002, we track all subsequent moves of these migrants out of and back into Australia, up to July 2005. This allows us to assess the impact of the removal of labour market-related social security eligibility and some other policy changes affecting New Zealand migrants to Australia, implemented between February and June 2001. United Kingdom migrants to Australia, who were not affected by the policy changes, provide a ‘control group’. Using hazard models, we find that the policy changes increased the probability of remigration from Australia among those who had intended to settle permanently. Competing risk models suggested no difference between the impact of the policy changes on onward or return moves. Settlers arriving after the policy changes spend less time Australia and make more trips away than earlier migrants

Changes in social security eligibility and the international mobility of New Zealand citizens in Australia

This paper is concerned with the international mobility of New Zealanders who migrate to Australia. One in ten New Zealand citizens lives in Australia and their settlement and subsequent mobility is important from demographic, socio-economic and policy perspectives in both countries. Using a unique longitudinal dataset on New Zealand citizens arriving for a stay of 12 months or longer between 1 August 1999 and 31 July 2002, we track all subsequent moves of these migrants out of and back into Australia, up to July 2005. This allows us to assess the impact of the removal of labour market-related social security eligibility and some other policy changes affecting New Zealand migrants to Australia, implemented between February and June 2001. United Kingdom migrants to Australia, who were not affected by the policy changes, provide a "control group". Using hazard models, we find that the policy changes increased the probability of remigration from Australia among those who had intended to settle permanently. Competing risk models suggested no difference between the impact of the policy changes on onward or return moves. Settlers arriving after the policy changes spend less time Australia and make more trips away than earlier migrants.International Migration, International Travel, New Zealand, Australia,United Kingdom, Social Welfare, Immigration Policy, Selectivity

Migration, Relationship Capital and International Travel: Theory and Evidence

In this paper we consider how international migration is related to the frequency and duration of trips to the home country. For many migrants, international migration triggers a series of trips to visit the home country that allow for a replenishment of the depleted relationship capital with family and friends back home, but these trips incur travel costs and foregone earnings. Given plausible assumptions about the depreciation and replenishment of home country relationship capital, a steady-state level of average maintained relationship capital implies that the optimized travel frequency is inversely related to the distance and the transportation costs, and positively related to the psychological costs of separation. The total time spent at home is increasing in the trip frequency, but with an elasticity that is decreasing in cultural proximity. Empirical evidence in support of these theoretical predictions is found in a unique longitudinal sample of international travel of 13,674 New Zealand citizens and 6,882 UK citizens who migrated to Australia between 1 August 1999 and 31 July 2000.International Migration; Trip Frequency, Relationship Capital

Migration, relationship capital and international travel: Theory and evidence

In this paper we consider how international migration is related to the frequency and duration of trips to the home country. For many migrants, international migration triggers a series of trips to visit the home country that allow for a replenishment of the depleted relationship capital with family and friends back home, but these trips incur travel costs and foregone earnings. Given plausible assumptions about the depreciation and replenishment of home country relationship capital, a steady-state level of average maintained relationship capital implies that the optimized travel frequency is inversely related to the distance and the transportation costs, and positively related to the psychological costs of separation. The total time spent at home is increasing in the trip frequency, but with an elasticity that is decreasing in cultural proximity. Empirical evidence in support of these theoretical predictions is found in a unique longitudinal sample of international travel of 13,674 New Zealand citizens and 6,882 UK citizens who migrated to Australia between 1 August 1999 and 31 July 2000

International Engagement and Performance of New Zealand Firms

This thesis examines the determinants and consequences of international engagement by New Zealand firms, with a particular focus on the relationship between international activities and firm performance. The thesis is based around two central questions: 1. How do characteristics of the firm and the economic environment influence the ability and incentives of New Zealand firms to become internationally engaged? 2. What effect does international engagement have on firm performance? In order to examine the causal relationships between firm performance and international activities, four analyses are conducted using longitudinal firm-level data from the prototype Longitudinal Business Database. This database provides detailed information on the performance and behaviour of New Zealand firms from a wide range of administrative and survey data sources. The four empirical chapters of the thesis investigate the relationships amongst firm performance, merchandise exporting and inward foreign direct investment. In Chapters 3 and 4, firm-level comparisons identify the types of firms that export and the factors driving those firms to expand into additional export markets and relationships. A range of determinants are considered including firm characteristics, destination market characteristics and localised spillovers. Having identified and controlled for the key firm-level factors which predict export market entry, subsequent performance outcomes are considered in Chapter 4. Chapter 5 examines the impact of new port infrastructure on the export behaviour and performance of local firms, while Chapter 6 turns attention to inward foreign direct investment, examining the pre-acquisition characteristics of foreign acquisition targets and their post-acquisition performance outcomes. The analysis in Chapters 3 and 4 suggests that firm characteristics both influence, and are influenced by, initial entry into exporting and subsequent expansion into new export relationships. While self-selection into exporting by high performing firms explains much of the performance differential between exporters and non-exporters in New Zealand, entry into exporting and subsequent expansion into new markets lead to increases in scale and capital intensity, with attendant effects on both firm-level and aggregate labour productivity. In turn, the choices that firms make regarding expansion into new export relationships are characterised by substantial path dependence. Firms tend to expand their export horizons sequentially, building on their existing experience and networks. Moreover, there is evidence of path dependence across firms, with entry into new export relationships reflecting demonstration effects from the export activities of other firms in the local area. Analysis of the uptake of new port infrastructure in Auckland in Chapter 5 suggests that the main determinants of uptake are product- and firm-related, rather than location specific. Firms use the new inland port in conjunction with the existing port in order to mitigate capacity constraints and/or access a greater range of transport options. However, there is no evidence that uptake of the new infrastructure is associated with improved export performance. Finally, the analysis in Chapter 6 suggests that foreign acquisition targets tend to be positively selected. Unlike export market entry, there is no strong evidence for firm-level performance improvements following from foreign acquisition. However, there is suggestive evidence that outcomes of foreign acquisition may differ according to the initial characteristics of the acquired firm, with initially weak performers being more likely to experience positive effects from acquisition

Estimating Firm-Level Effective Tax Rates and the User Cost of Capital in New Zealand

Effective marginal tax rates can be very different from the statutory rate and vary across firms, reflecting such factors as the extent and nature of taxable deductions (losses, depreciation), asset and ownership structures, and debt/equity financing. We estimate firm-specific EMTRs and related user cost of capital (UCC) measures allowing for shareholder-level taxation using data for 2000-2010 from the Longitudinal Business Database. Examining distributions of various UCC measures we find substantial firm-level heterogeneity; systematic changes as a result of tax reforms between 2004 and 2011; and systematic differences between foreignowned and domestically-owned firms. Choices among alternative UCC measures make a difference to interpretations

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

Introduction: The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures. Methods: In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025. Findings: Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2–6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p<0·0001) and independently associated with COVID-19 status (odds ratio [OR] 2·9 [95% CI 1·5–5·8]; padjusted=0·0023) after adjusting for relevant confounders. Compared with controls, patients were more likely to have MRI evidence of lung abnormalities (p=0·0001; parenchymal abnormalities), brain abnormalities (p<0·0001; more white matter hyperintensities and regional brain volume reduction), and kidney abnormalities (p=0·014; lower medullary T1 and loss of corticomedullary differentiation), whereas cardiac and liver MRI abnormalities were similar between patients and controls. Patients with multiorgan abnormalities were older (difference in mean age 7 years [95% CI 4–10]; mean age of 59·8 years [SD 11·7] with multiorgan abnormalities vs mean age of 52·8 years [11·9] without multiorgan abnormalities; p<0·0001), more likely to have three or more comorbidities (OR 2·47 [1·32–4·82]; padjusted=0·0059), and more likely to have a more severe acute infection (acute CRP >5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23–11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation. Interpretation: After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification

Effect of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor and angiotensin receptor blocker initiation on organ support-free days in patients hospitalized with COVID-19

IMPORTANCE Overactivation of the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) may contribute to poor clinical outcomes in patients with COVID-19. Objective To determine whether angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ARB) initiation improves outcomes in patients hospitalized for COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS In an ongoing, adaptive platform randomized clinical trial, 721 critically ill and 58 non–critically ill hospitalized adults were randomized to receive an RAS inhibitor or control between March 16, 2021, and February 25, 2022, at 69 sites in 7 countries (final follow-up on June 1, 2022). INTERVENTIONS Patients were randomized to receive open-label initiation of an ACE inhibitor (n = 257), ARB (n = 248), ARB in combination with DMX-200 (a chemokine receptor-2 inhibitor; n = 10), or no RAS inhibitor (control; n = 264) for up to 10 days. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was organ support–free days, a composite of hospital survival and days alive without cardiovascular or respiratory organ support through 21 days. The primary analysis was a bayesian cumulative logistic model. Odds ratios (ORs) greater than 1 represent improved outcomes. RESULTS On February 25, 2022, enrollment was discontinued due to safety concerns. Among 679 critically ill patients with available primary outcome data, the median age was 56 years and 239 participants (35.2%) were women. Median (IQR) organ support–free days among critically ill patients was 10 (–1 to 16) in the ACE inhibitor group (n = 231), 8 (–1 to 17) in the ARB group (n = 217), and 12 (0 to 17) in the control group (n = 231) (median adjusted odds ratios of 0.77 [95% bayesian credible interval, 0.58-1.06] for improvement for ACE inhibitor and 0.76 [95% credible interval, 0.56-1.05] for ARB compared with control). The posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitors and ARBs worsened organ support–free days compared with control were 94.9% and 95.4%, respectively. Hospital survival occurred in 166 of 231 critically ill participants (71.9%) in the ACE inhibitor group, 152 of 217 (70.0%) in the ARB group, and 182 of 231 (78.8%) in the control group (posterior probabilities that ACE inhibitor and ARB worsened hospital survival compared with control were 95.3% and 98.1%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this trial, among critically ill adults with COVID-19, initiation of an ACE inhibitor or ARB did not improve, and likely worsened, clinical outcomes. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT0273570

Exchange rates and export performance: evidence from micro-data

This article presents a summary of early results from an ongoing Reserve Bank research programme on the impact of exchange rates on firm-level export behaviour. Understanding responses to exchange rate movements at the level of individual firms is key to a deeper understanding of the channels through which economic and policy changes are transmitted through the economy. Results suggest that New Zealand firms have limited ability to respond to exchange rate changes through price-setting. Rather, explicit hedging is common and firms’ trade behaviour reflects a desire to avoid the risk associated with exchange rate volatility.