Problems from including technospheric parameters in characterization factors for natural resources

The life cycle inventory (LCI) analysis generally considers a product system in the technosphere, whereas the life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) is generally concerned with impacts in nature. However, in LCIA methods for natural resources, we have noticed a tendency to include technospheric parameters. This practise, which deviates from the predominant use of parameters related to environmental processes in characterization factors for emissions, has not received much attention in the LCA community. Here, we discuss a number of problems arising from such inclusions. Three types of technospheric parameters found in characterization factors for natural resources were analysed: (i) extraction rates, (ii) recycled contents, and (iii) prices. Extraction rates vary over time, and frequent updating is therefore needed to avoid outdated characterization factors. Furthermore, the inclusion of extraction rates in the characterization factors creates an interdependency between the LCI analysis and the LCIA, since extraction rates are also part of the inventory modelling. We show that such interdependencies can potentially lead to counterproductive information. Regarding recycled contents, when inventory data with recycled content are matched with characterization factors also taking recycled content into account, the benefit of recycling is double counted. Furthermore, it introduces a risk of inconsistency: the recycled contents in the characterization factors may not match those in the LCI analysis. In addition, characterization factors based on recycled contents are also time sensitive. Prices are commonly used in economic allocation in the LCI analysis. When they are also used in characterization factors, there is a risk of inconsistency if these prices are not the same as those used in the allocation. In addition, prices are very time sensitive, potentially fluctuating notably even on a daily basis. There are possible solutions to some of these problems, such as frequent updating of characterization factors and avoiding economic allocation. However, these solutions come at a cost. For example, frequent updating of characterization factors is work intensive, and economic allocation may be otherwise recommendable in some studies. For the LCI-LCIA interdependency, we see no obvious solution. Considering the identified problems, we recommend further critical discussions on the inclusion of technospheric parameters in characterization factors for natural resources

Photovoltaics in Sweden – Success or failure?

Promoting global energy transitions while stimulating domestic industrialization requires national policymaking that shapes technological innovation towards specific outcomes. Although this is inherently difficult, historical case studies may bring a better understanding of innovation dynamics and thereby guide the design of future policy interventions. The purpose of this paper is to review and analyze the emergence of Swedish photovoltaics technology from a policy perspective. Our main aim is to provide a retrospective account of historical developments, but we also derive more general insights about technological innovation and related policy challenges. The paper departs from an adapted analytical framework based on the technological innovation systems approach. Our review identifies four decades of Swedish research that has largely failed to drive domestic commercialization, the rise and fall of an industry that mainly served international markets, and a rapidly growing domestic market based on imported products. This situation is the result of mismatches and fragmentation among key innovation processes, which have not been addressed by strategic policy interventions. We suggest that policymakers should promote a full range of innovation processes and consider making innovation support subject to a payback mechanism that delivers a return on public investments even if industries and markets emerge abroad. Our study also demonstrates how the technological innovation systems approach can be extended to include the function commercialization and emphasizes the importance of paying attention to the directionality of technological innovation processes

The outcomes of directionality: Towards a morphology of sociotechnical systems

The sustainability transitions literature departs from the idea that grand challenges such as climate change and rising inequality call for far-reaching changes in sociotechnical systems of production and consumption. This implies a dual interest in the directionality of innovation; some directions of change can be perceived as more desirable, while others may be more plausible due to the path dependent nature of sociotechnical change. The specific characteristics of the potential outcomes of directionality have, however, received little attention. Our aim is therefore to unpack and conceptualize the multidimensional space in which sociotechnical systems may adopt different shapes and configurations. We also provide three illustrative empirical examples where directionality has resulted in systems with different technical, social and spatial characteristics. The ideas put forward in this paper can be seen as a contribution to a morphology of sociotechnical systems and thereby support efforts to investigate or promote specific directions of change

A global super-grid: sociotechnical drivers and barriers

Background One way to design an electricity system wholly based on renewables is referred to as the global Super-grid, a vision of a transmission network of unprecedented geographical scope that uses advanced technology to balance spatially and temporally varying supply and demand across the globe. While proponents, since the 1960s, have argued that a global Super-grid is technologically possible and socially desirable, and significant technical progress has been made since the 1990s, development is slow with new transmission lines being built predominantly with established technology and within the boundaries of single countries. The aim of this study is to explore sociotechnical drivers and barriers of global Super-grid development. Results A main driver is the century old ideas that larger grids are more efficient and contribute to cooperation and peace. Over the last decades, the level of technical knowledge and networks of proponent have grown. The Super-grid also benefits from the potential opportunity of building on existing grids. Barriers stem from the scale of investments needed to experiment, path dependences in established industry and competition from novel smaller scale solutions based on local production, energy storage and smart grid technology. Other barriers originate in the organisational and institutional complexities of international electricity trade, and in the lack of trust at local and global levels, which hinder the development of necessary coordination. Conclusions The analysis suggests that if the Super-grid is to become part of a future electricity system, the discourse needs to open up, move beyond simplistic ideas of efficiency and \u27technocratic internationalism\u27, and take into account a broader set of social benefits, risks and trade-offs

Prospective, Anticipatory and Ex-Ante – What’s the Difference? Sorting Out Concepts for Time-Related LCA

Most life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have considered technologies as they are at the time of the study, often in a mature state. Increasingly, LCA studies attempt to assess emerging technologies in imagined states at future points in time, often referred to as prospective, anticipatory or ex-ante. However, a clear distinction between these LCA types is lacking. We aim to sort these concepts into a typology of time-related LCAs, contributing to more purposeful methodological choices. Existing frameworks for time-realted LCA types were reviewed and typology consisting of three dimensions was found to capture the most important differences. The first dimension is real time, which captures the time difference between the functional unit and the LCA. If the technology is modelled at approximately the same time as when the LCA is conducted, it can be called contemporary LCA. If the technology is modelled at a future point in time relative to the analysis, it can be called prospective LCA, and retrospective LCA if it is modelled at a past point in time relative to the study. Dynamic LCA accounts for that a technology can be “stretched out” along the real time dimension. The second dimension is technology maturity, which can be measured by technology readiness levels (TRLs). Ex-ante LCA considers technologies that are immature at the time of the study but model them in a future when they are assumed to have become mature, and is thus a specific type of prospective LCA. In contrast, ex-post LCA refers to studies of technologies that have reached maturity at the time of the study. Anticipatory LCA is effectively similar to ex-ante LCA but also entails the inclusion of numerous stakeholders in shaping the LCA study. Lab-scale LCA is a contemporary LCA of an immature technology with the aim of suggesting improvements to technology developers. The third dimension is causality. Some LCA studies mainly consider causes of a functional unit, which is often referred to as attributional LCA. Other LCA studies mainly consider effects of a functional unit, which can be called consequential LCA. While the former can be said to look backwards in time, the latter can be said to look forward in time from the perspective of the functional unit. Both types can, however, be retrospective, contemporary, or prospective LCAs as defined above. It is also possible to consider different types of causality, which relate differently to real time and technology maturity

Challenges of recycling multiple scarce metals: The case of Swedish ELV and WEEE recycling

Cars and electronic products are characterised by high metal complexity. Meanwhile, recycling industries are not fully aligned with this complexity, leading to losses of unique scarce metal resources. By utilising the technological innovation system framework we identify, and discuss implications of, factors that impact on recycling of some precious (gold, palladium, silver) and minor metals (gallium, tantalum) in printed circuit boards (PCBs) present in Swedish end-of-life cars (ELVs) and waste electrical and electronic equipment (WEEE). We conclude that while precious metals from WEEE PCBs are currently recycled, recycling precious metals from ELV PCBs will likely remain a challenge in the near-term due to recycling being blocked by the material composition of ELV waste, design of waste legislation, and by accumulated capabilities and business models in current recycling industries. However, some of these blocking factors are open to direct influence from national policymakers or industry actors and may thus be alleviated more easily. In contrast, recycling minor metals from ELV or WEEE PCBs will likely remain challenging also in the long-term due to a larger set of blocking factors. Alleviating these may require a substantial portfolio of metal-specific policies at national and supra national levels supporting the build-up of entirely new recycling value chains

Shaping factors in the emergence of technological innovations: The case of tidal kite technology

The technological innovation systems (TIS) literature offers a detailed and dynamic understanding of factors that enable successful innovation. However, few studies analyze what determines where in space value chain elements are developed as a new technology is diffused on a large scale. The purpose of this paper is to show how the TIS approach can be used to identify and analyze factors that shape spatial trajectories of emerging technologies. It proposes an adapted analytical framework that expands the conventional focus on one-dimensional supporting and blocking factors, to shaping factors that incorporate the spatiality of innovation. The approach is illustrated by examining innovation in tidal kite technology. The analysis finds that a supportive local context in western Sweden during the infancy of tidal kite technology, together with the availability of competent engineers and business development professionals, promoted the formation of locally embedded knowledge and competence. This in turn created a spatial path dependency that made developments gravitate towards Sweden, although the lack of domestic markets has also increasingly driven an expansion of activity to other regions, in particular the UK. Moreover, the analysis shows that shaping, and not only stimulating, the growth of emerging TIS is an important challenge for regional policymakers, and highlights the need for international policy coordination. The paper concludes that analyzing shaping factors in the emergence of new TISs can yield important insights, some of which may be overlooked with a narrow analytical focus on supporting and blocking factors

Life-cycle impact assessment methods for physical energy scarcity: considerations and suggestions

Purpose: Most approaches for energy use assessment in life cycle assessment do not consider the scarcity of energy resources. A few approaches consider the scarcity of fossil energy resources only. No approach considers the scarcity of both renewable and non-renewable energy resources. In this paper, considerations for including physical energy scarcity of both renewable and non-renewable energy resources in life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) are discussed. Methods: We begin by discussing a number of considerations for LCIA methods for energy scarcity, such as which impacts of scarcity to consider, which energy resource types to include, which spatial resolutions to choose, and how to match with inventory data. We then suggest three LCIA methods for physical energy scarcity. As proof of concept, the use of the third LCIA method is demonstrated in a well-to-wheel assessment of eight vehicle propulsion fuels. Results and discussion: We suggest that global potential physical scarcity can be operationalized using characterization factors based on the reciprocal physical availability for a set of nine commonly inventoried energy resource types. The three suggested LCIA methods for physical energy scarcity consider the following respective energy resource types: (i) only stock-type energy resources (natural gas, coal, crude oil and uranium), (ii) only flow-type energy resources (solar, wind, hydro, geothermal and the flow generated from biomass funds), and (iii) both stock- and flow-type resources by introducing a time horizon over which the stock-type resources are distributed. Characterization factors for these three methods are provided. Conclusions: LCIA methods for physical energy scarcity that provide meaningful information and complement other methods are feasible and practically applicable. The characterization factors of the three suggested LCIA methods depend heavily on the aggregation level of energy resource types. Future studies may investigate how physical energy scarcity changes over time and geographical locations

Prospective inventory modelling of emerging chemicals: The case of photonic materials

Prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), or ex-ante LCA, has been defined as an assessment of a product system modeled at a future time, before its commercialization. Such assessments bring the promise of altering emerging technologies in a more environmentally benefitial direction before they become difficult to change. Since the future cannot be known with certainty, prospective modeling need to rely on scenarios of various kinds. However, how to conduct such prospective scenario modeling in practice still has to be clarified. In this study, we have modeled two emerging chemicals that can be used for a technology called photon upconversion, which converts low-energy light into higher-energy light harvestable by solar photovoltaics, thereby increasing their efficiency. Two chemicals currently considered for this purpose are ruthenium bipyridine chloride (RBC) and diphenylanthracene (DPA). These novel, emerging chemicals have not been studied regarding environmental performance before and are consequently not present in any LCA databases. The aim of this study is to present a generic procedure for prospective inventory modeling of emerging chemicals and apply that to the cases of RBC and DPA by developing unit processes for these two chemicals. An industrial synthesis scenario was adopted as our main scenario, reflecting a possible future time when RBC and DPA are produced at an industrial scale. The modeling was conducted in six steps: (1) Identify likely chemical syntheses. (2) Calculate inputs stoichiometrically based on the chemical synthesis reactions. (3) Modify inputs based on available yields for reactants and solvents (e.g. obtained from patents or estimated). (4) Categorize outputs as by-products or waste depending on their likely subsequent fate. (5)Calculate process emissions. (6) Model energy flows. Unit processes for the two emerging chemicals are thusly developed. The procedure is considered particularly strong for estimating inputs and output materials related to the stoichiometric reaction, but weaker regarding the estimation of emissions and energy requrement. Further research into the modeling of energy flows for high-temperature processes is therefore recommended, as well as estimation procedures for emissions from emerging chemicals production

Prospective Life-Cycle Modeling of Quantum Dot Nanoparticles for Use in Photon Upconversion Devices

Quantum dot nanoparticles (NPs) can be used in several applications, for example, photon upconversion devices that increase the electricity output of solar modules. In order to facilitate life cycle assessment (LCA) studies of such applications, this study provides ready-to-use LCA unit process data for four NPs suitable for photon upconversion applications: cadmium selenide, cadmium sulfide, lead selenide, and lead sulfide. The data is provided for two prospective scenarios: one optimistic and one pessimistic. An impact assessment is conducted in order to assess the NPs’ climate change performance, where solvent-related processes such as steam production for recycling and hazardous waste treatment are shown to be hotspots. To show the applicability of the data, a prospective assessment of a solar module with an upconversion layer is conducted to investigate whether it is preferable from a climate perspective to install more solar modules or equip existing ones with upconversion devices, leading to more electricity produced in both cases. The assessment shows that solar modules need to become 0.05–2 percentage points more efficient per gram of NPs applied, depending on the scenario, in order for the upconversion layer to be preferable