The Potential of Agent Based Models for Testing City Evacuation Strategies Under a Flood Event

AbstractThis paper explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities under threat of an imminent flooding due to extreme hydro-meteorological events. The first part of the paper is an introduction to the field of complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. It is also presented the benefits and limitations of such models. The second part of the paper focuses on the theory used to build the ABM. For this study, theories and frameworks of human behaviour and disaster psychology were used. To feed the ABM model qualitative and quantitative attributes or characteristics of human beings are abstracted from literature review, fieldwork and expert's knowledge. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast Symphony, a Java based modelling system. The results of the initial experiments implemented in a region of the city of Marbella, southern Spain, are presented and discussed. The preliminary results are promising to further enhance the development of the model and its implementation and testing at full city scale

The Potential of Agent Based Models for Testing City Evacuation Strategies Under a Flood Event

AbstractThis paper explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities under threat of an imminent flooding due to extreme hydro-meteorological events. The first part of the paper is an introduction to the field of complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. It is also presented the benefits and limitations of such models. The second part of the paper focuses on the theory used to build the ABM. For this study, theories and frameworks of human behaviour and disaster psychology were used. To feed the ABM model qualitative and quantitative attributes or characteristics of human beings are abstracted from literature review, fieldwork and expert's knowledge. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast Symphony, a Java based modelling system. The results of the initial experiments implemented in a region of the city of Marbella, southern Spain, are presented and discussed. The preliminary results are promising to further enhance the development of the model and its implementation and testing at full city scale

Assessing Rehabilitation Strategies Of Urban Drainage Systems Based On Future Scenarios Of Urbanization

Population growth and urbanisation are creating a big need to improve the planning processes and management of urban infrastructures. Urban drainage networks are one of the vital services needed for any urban area, modelling its growth and expansion is a challenge because of the dynamics of the system. This work describes the integration of a cellular automata model, to simulate urban land use changes, with algorithms to deduct the future layout of the drainage network and with SWMM 5.0 as the hydraulic engine to assess the performance of the drainage systems in the current condition and in the future. The model was built using Dinamica EGO to simulate the land use changes in the future. The model was setup using a set of two land use maps for the municipality of Birmingham in the UK, for the year 2000 and 2006. The model was connected with the NSGAII algorithm to handle the calibration process. Once the model is calibrated three scenarios of future population growth and urbanization are run for the year 2040. The future generated map is then used to classified and cluster the areas of new developments that are suitable to expand the drainage network. Two algorithms are used to predict the future layout of the network. Once the new layout of the network is defined, the system can be connected to the existing urban drainage network and the performance of the expanded network can be assessed. To upgrade the system several rehabilitation strategies are tested to improve the capacity of the system. The integration of these models allows the exploration of several planning scenarios, in this way is possible to help the decision makers with tools and methods to anticipate bottlenecks and solutions in the urban drainage system

Merging Quantitative And Qualitative Analyses For Flood Risk Assessment At Heritage Sites, The Case Of Ayutthaya, Thailand

The present paper presents a flood risk assessment approach for urban areas with mixed land-use including cultural sites. Destruction of heritage properties through disasters creates a serious loss for the national and local communities, not only because of the cultural importance of heritage assets but also for their socio-economic value. At the same time, studies have shown that protecting heritage promotes resilience since heritage contributes to social cohesion, sustainable development and psychological well-being (Jigyasu et. al [3]). Although disaster risk management activities have been developed intensively, a very few methodologies are developed specifically for preservation of heritage sites. Economic as well as intrinsic values embodied within cultural assets require combination of both quantitative and qualitative analyses (i.e., holistic analysis) for flood risk assessment. Moreover, it has been acknowledged that community-based and active stakeholder participation approaches are needed to facilitate comprehensive flood risk assessment. The work presented in this paper aims to develop a framework for active stakeholder participation which combines qualitative and quantitative methods for flood risk assessment at heritage sites. It also seeks to provide a base overview of potential benefits from participatory planning process for both stakeholders and flood risk experts

A Warmin Up In Dixie

https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/mmb-ps/1321/thumbnail.jp

Flood Resilience Assessment In Urban Drainage Systems Through Multi-Objective Optimisation

In future years, economic development, urbanisation and heavy rainfall events are expected to increase in urban areas, in particular in developing countries. It is well known that urban development has a strong impact on the water cycle such as increase of flood peaks and volume, decrease of base flow, hydraulic stress and water pollution. Resilience measures are still needed to improve urban flood risk, the possibilities to provide indicators that could be used to characterize urban resilience related to flooding is outmost importance. The work described here presents an optimisation framework for urban drainage rehabilitation that incorporates in the decision space the concept of resilience in order to find an optimal rehabilitation strategy. The approach has been tested in the City of Dhaka, Bangladesh by coupling 1D/2D model of the drainage system and linked within the optimisation algorithm. The preliminary results obtained suggest that the proposed approach could be effective in order to reach acceptable level of flood resilience of urban drainage systems, balancing investment and risk within the systems. Further work is recommended to expand and generalize the methodology

Multi-Objective-Rehabilitation Of Urban Drainage Systems Within The Flood Risk Framework

Urban drainage systems are one of the most valuable public utilities in any community, which protects public health and the environment, nevertheless is one of the most overlooked infrastructures until considerable failures occurred. If there are not recurrent rehabilitation programs in place this vital infrastructure will decrease the level of service. This work presents an approach to find optimal rehabilitation measures based on the hydraulic performance of the system. To assess the performance of the urban drainage system a coupled 1D-2D model was developed. The model uses SWMM 5.0 for the 1D transport; to simulate the overland flow from the manholes when the capacity of the sewer pipes is exceeded a coupled 1D-2D non inertia model was used. The results are matrices composed of flood water depths and velocities values per each scenario of the flood event. These outputs are the main parameters to assess flood hazard. Furthermore, the vulnerability was assessed based on the socio-economic condition of the residents in the study area, located in a catchment area in Quito, Ecuador. The assessment of hazard and vulnerability were combined to estimate the flood risk damage. Several simulations were made for different flood events (10, 20, 50 and 100 year return period), obtaining Pareto sets per each event. However in order to have more realistic solutions the approach of expected annual flood risk cost were implemented to obtain integrated solutions for a number of flood events. Besides of these new solutions generated, the concept of cost-benefit analysis was applied to help in the identification of the most cost-effective solution. Keywords: Urban drainage systems, flood hazard, vulnerability, flood risk assessment, SWMM5, NSGAII, multi-objective-rehabilitation, genetic algorithms

Holistic Flood Risk Assessment In Coastal Areas - The PEARL Approach

Coastal floods are one of the most dangerous and harmful natural hazards affecting urban areas adjacent to shorelines. The present paper discusses the FP7-ENV-2013 EU funded PEARL (Preparing for Extreme And Rare events in coastaL regions) project which brings together world leading expertise in both the domain of hydro-engineering and risk reduction and management services to pool knowledge and practical experience in order to develop more sustainable risk management solutions for coastal communities focusing on present and projected extreme hydro-meteorological events. The PEARL approach draws upon the complexity theory and the use of complex adaptive system (CAS) models as tools to identify root causes of vulnerabilities and their multi-stressors and to analyze risk and the behavior of key actors

Combining machine learning and spatial data processing techniques for allocation of large-scale nature-based solutions

The escalating impacts of climate change trigger the necessity to deal with hydro-meteorological hazards. Nature-based solutions (NBSs) seem to be a suitable response, integrating the hydrology, geomorphology, hydraulic, and ecological dynamics. While there are some methods and tools for suitability mapping of small-scale NBSs, literature concerning the spatial allocation of large-scale NBSs is still lacking. The present work aims to develop new toolboxes and enhance an existing methodology by developing spatial analysis tools within a geographic information system (GIS) environment to allocate large-scale NBSs based on a multi-criteria algorithm. The methodologies combine machine learning spatial data processing techniques and hydrodynamic modelling for allocation of large-scale NBSs. The case studies concern selected areas in the Netherlands, Serbia, and Bolivia, focusing on three large-scale NBS: rainwater harvesting, wetland restoration, and natural riverbank stabilisation. Information available from the EC H2020 RECONECT project as well as other available data for the specific study areas was used. The research highlights the significance of incorporating machine learning, GIS, and remote sensing techniques for the suitable allocation of large-scale NBSs. The findings may offer new insights for decision-makers and other stakeholders involved in future sustainable environmental planning and climate change adaptation