QBO influence on MJO amplitude over the Maritime Continent: Physical mechanisms and seasonality

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2019. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Monthly Weather Review 147(1), (2019): 389-406. doi: 10.1175/MWR-D-18-0158.1.The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is stratified by stratospheric zonal wind direction and height into four phase pairs [easterly midstratospheric winds (QBOEM), easterly lower-stratospheric winds, westerly midstratospheric winds (QBOWM), and westerly lower-stratospheric winds] using an empirical orthogonal function analysis of daily stratospheric (100–10 hPa) zonal wind data during 1980–2017. Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) events in which the MJO convective envelope moved eastward across the Maritime Continent (MC) during 1980–2017 are identified using the Real-time Multivariate MJO (RMM) index and the outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) MJO index (OMI). Comparison of RMM amplitudes by the QBO phase pair over the MC (RMM phases 4 and 5) reveals that boreal winter MJO events have the strongest amplitudes during QBOEM and the weakest amplitudes during QBOWM, which is consistent with QBO-driven differences in upper-tropospheric lower-stratospheric (UTLS) static stability. Additionally, boreal winter RMM events over the MC strengthen during QBOEM and weaken during QBOWM. In the OMI, those amplitude changes generally shift eastward to the eastern MC and western Pacific Ocean, which may result from differences in RMM and OMI index methodologies. During boreal summer, as the northeastward-propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) becomes the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability, these relationships are reversed. Zonal differences in UTLS stability anomalies are consistent with amplitude changes of eastward-propagating MJO events across the MC during boreal winter, and meridional stability differences are consistent with amplitude changes of northeastward-propagating BSISO events during boreal summer. Results remain consistent when stratifying by neutral ENSO phase.The authors are grateful for the funding provided by the Office of Naval Research Propagation of Intra-Seasonal Tropical Oscillations (ONR PISTON) Award N0001416WX01752 and the USNA Trident Scholar program. The authors also appreciate the helpful comments of the two external reviewers.2019-07-0

Development and testing of the AXBT real-time editing system (ARES)

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 38(1), (2021): 3-16, https://doi.org/10.1175/JTECH-D-20-0110.1.Airborne expendable bathythermographs (AXBTs) are air-launched, single-use temperature–depth probes that telemeter temperature observations as VHF-modulated frequencies. This study describes the AXBT Real-Time Editing System (ARES), which is composed of two components: the ARES Data Acquisition System, which receives telemetered temperature–depth profiles with no external hardware other than a VHF radio receiver, and the ARES Profile Editing System, which quality controls AXBT temperature–depth profiles. The ARES Data Acquisition System performs fast Fourier transforms on windowed segments of the demodulated signal transmitted from the AXBT. For each segment, temperature is determined from peak frequency and depth from elapsed time since profile start. Valid signals are distinguished from noise by comparing peak signal levels and signal-to-noise ratios to predetermined thresholds. When evaluated using 387 profiles, the ARES Data Acquisition System produced temperature–depth profiles nearly identical to those generated using a Sippican MK-21 processor, while reducing the amount of noise from VHF interference included in those profiles. The ARES Profile Editor applies a series of automated checks to identify and correct common profile discrepancies before displaying the profile on an editing interface that provides simple user controls to make additional corrections. When evaluated against 1177 tropical Atlantic and Pacific AXBT profiles, the ARES automated quality control system successfully corrected 87% of the profiles without any required manual intervention. Necessary future work includes improvements to the automated quality control algorithm and algorithm evaluation against a broader dataset of temperature–depth profiles from around the world across all seasons.This work was sponsored by the Office of Naval Research (Grants N000141812819 and N0001420WX00345) and the U.S. Navy’s Civilian Institution Office with the MIT–WHOI Joint Program

The air-sea response during Hurricane Irma's (2017) rapid intensification over the Amazon-Orinoco River plume as measured by atmospheric and oceanic observations

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2020. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125(18), (2020): e2019JD032368, doi:10.1029/2019JD032368.Hurricane Irma (2017) underwent rapid intensification (RI) while passing over the Amazon‐Orinoco River plume in the tropical Atlantic. The freshwater discharge from the plume creates a vertical salinity gradient that suppresses turbulent heat flux from the cool, ocean subsurface. The stability within the plume reduces sea surface temperature (SST) cooling and promotes energetic air‐sea fluxes. Hence, it is hypothesized that this ocean feature may have facilitated Irma's RI through favorable upper ocean conditions. This hypothesis is validated using a collection of atmospheric and oceanic observations to quantify how the ocean response influences surface flux and atmospheric boundary layer thermodynamics during Hurricane Irma's RI over the river plume. Novel aircraft‐deployed oceanic profiling floats highlight the detailed evolution of the ocean response during Irma's passage over the river plume. Analyses include quantifying the ocean response and identifying how it influenced atmospheric boundary layer temperature, moisture, and equivalent potential temperature (θE). An atmospheric boundary layer recovery analysis indicates that surface fluxes were sufficient to support the enhanced boundary layer θE (moist entropy) observed, which promotes inner‐core convection and facilitates TC intensification. The implicit influence of salinity stratification on Irma's intensity during RI is assessed using theoretical intensity frameworks. Overall, the findings suggest that the salinity stratification sustained SST during Irma's passage, which promoted energetic air‐sea fluxes that aided in boundary layer recovery and facilitated Irma's intensity during RI. Examination of the air‐sea coupling over this river plume, corresponding atmospheric boundary layer response, and feedback on TC intensity was previously absent in literature.This research was performed while the corresponding author held an NRC Research Associateship Award at the U.S. Naval Research Lab, Monterey. Chen is supported by Office of Naval Research (ONR) grant N0001416WX00470. Sanabia is sponsored by ONR grants N0001416WX01384 and N0001416WX01262. Jayne is supported by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) grant NA13OAR4830233.The authors gratefully acknowledge the HRD scientists, NOAA AOC crews, U.S. Air Force crews, and U.S. Navy crews who were involved in the collection of both atmospheric and oceanic data. This research would not be possible without your efforts. We are thankful for helpful discussion and pre‐RI AXBT data provided by Jun Zhang (NOAA/HRD).2020-12-1

Targeted ocean sampling guidance for tropical cyclones

This paper is not subject to U.S. copyright. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 122 (2017): 3505–3518, doi:10.1002/2017JC012727.A 3-D variational ocean data assimilation adjoint approach is used to examine the impact of ocean observations on coupled tropical cyclone (TC) model forecast error for three recent hurricanes: Isaac (2012), Hilda (2015), and Matthew (2016). In addition, this methodology is applied to develop an innovative ocean observation targeting tool validated using TC model simulations that assimilate ocean temperature observed by Airborne eXpendable Bathy Thermographs and Air-Launched Autonomous Micro-Observer floats. Comparison between the simulated targeted and real observation data assimilation impacts reveals a positive maximum mean linear correlation of 0.53 at 400–500 m, which implies some skill in the targeting application. Targeted ocean observation regions from these three hurricanes, however, show that the largest positive impacts in reducing the TC model forecast errors are sensitive to the initial prestorm ocean conditions such as the location and magnitude of preexisting ocean eddies, storm-induced ocean cold wake, and model track errors.ONR Grant Numbers: N0001416WX01949, N0001416WX01384, N0001416WX01262; NOAA Grant Number: NA13OAR483023

The air-launched autonomous micro observer

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2022. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of the Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 39(4), (2022): 491–502, https://doi.org/10.1175/jtech-d-21-0046.1.The Air-Launched Autonomous Micro Observer (ALAMO) is a versatile profiling float that can be launched from an aircraft to make temperature and salinity observations of the upper ocean for over a year with high temporal sampling. Similar in dimensions and weight to an airborne expendable bathythermograph (AXBT), but with the same capability as Argo profiling floats, ALAMOs can be deployed from an A-sized (sonobuoy) launch tube, the stern ramp of a cargo plane, or the door of a small aircraft. Unlike an AXBT, however, the ALAMO float directly measures pressure, can incorporate additional sensors, and is capable of performing hundreds of ocean profiles compared to the single temperature profile provided by an AXBT. Upon deployment, the float parachutes to the ocean, releases the air-deployment package, and immediately begins profiling. Ocean profile data along with position and engineering information are transmitted via the Iridium satellite network, automatically processed, and then distributed by the Global Telecommunications System for use by the operational forecasting community. The ALAMO profiling mission can be modified using the two-way Iridium communications to change the profiling frequency and depth. Example observations are included to demonstrate the ALAMO’s utility.This work was supported by the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration under Grants NA13OAR4830233 (as part of CINAR Sandy Supplemental funding from the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013) and NA14OAR4320158 and by Office of Naval Research under Grants N0001416WX01384, N0001416WX01262, and N000141512293. ALAMO floats are commercially available from MRV Systems, LLC (https://www.mrvsys.com)

Parent experiences with a nurse-supervised community health worker asthma home-visiting program.

OBJECTIVE: This study seeks to identify helpful components of a nurse-supervised Community Health Worker (CHW) asthma home-visiting program, obtain feedback from parents and families about their experiences, and receive suggestions for new services that the program could provide. METHODS: Likert scale ratings and semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with parents who were selected from a representative sample and previously participated in the program. Five-point Likert scale ratings from 1 (not helpful) to 5 (very helpful) were obtained for 11 program components. Interviews were analyzed using a grounded theory participatory approach. Data were analyzed and themes were identified by two different coders using Dedoose software. RESULTS: A total of 22 participants were enrolled and 20 participants completed Likert scale ratings and qualitative interviews. Likert scale ratings (mean standard deviation [SD]) show that program strengths include asthma education (4.75 [0.55]), supplies (4.65 [0.99]), help with housing conditions (3.94 [1.56], pest management (3.79 [1.69]) and greater access to community resources (3.70 [1.30]). The ratings suggest that families need more help with other social determinants of health, such as school, lack of enough money or food, and mental health and behavioral concerns (3.05 [1.78]). Interviews echoed these ratings and revealed several themes about family and parental stress, children's activity limitations, desire for outreach after the 12-month intervention, a need for help with other social determinants and more emotional support. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the program was well received and reveals the importance of addressing social determinants of health and behavioral health concerns

Autonomous and Lagrangian ocean observations for Atlantic tropical cyclone studies and forecasts

Author Posting. © The Oceanography Society, 2017. This article is posted here by permission of The Oceanography Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Oceanography 30, no. 2 (2017): 92–103, doi:10.5670/oceanog.2017.227.The tropical Atlantic basin is one of seven global regions where tropical cyclones (TCs) commonly originate, intensify, and affect highly populated coastal areas. Under appropriate atmospheric conditions, TC intensification can be linked to upper-ocean properties. Errors in Atlantic TC intensification forecasts have not been significantly reduced during the last 25 years. The combined use of in situ and satellite observations, particularly of temperature and salinity ahead of TCs, has the potential to improve the representation of the ocean, more accurately initialize hurricane intensity forecast models, and identify areas where TCs may intensify. However, a sustained in situ ocean observing system in the tropical North Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea dedicated to measuring subsurface temperature, salinity, and density fields in support of TC intensity studies and forecasts has yet to be designed and implemented. Autonomous and Lagrangian platforms and sensors offer cost-effective opportunities to accomplish this objective. Here, we highlight recent efforts to use autonomous platforms and sensors, including surface drifters, profiling floats, underwater gliders, and dropsondes, to better understand air-sea processes during high-wind events, particularly those geared toward improving hurricane intensity forecasts. Real-time data availability is key for assimilation into numerical weather forecast models.The NOAA/AOML component of this work was originally funded by the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013, also known as the Sandy Supplemental, and is currently funded through NOAA research grant NA14OAR4830103 by AOML and CARICOOS, as well as NOAA’s Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS). The TEMPESTS component of this work is supported by NOAA through the Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region (NA13OAR4830233) with additional analysis support from the WHOI Summer Student Fellowship Program, Nortek Student Equipment Grant, and the Rutgers University Teledyne Webb Graduate Student Fellowship Program. The drifter component of this work is funded through NOAA grant NA15OAR4320071(11.432) in support of the Global Drifter Program

Ocean observations in support of studies and forecasts of tropical and extratropical cyclones

© The Author(s), 2019. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Domingues, R., Kuwano-Yoshida, A., Chardon-Maldonado, P., Todd, R. E., Halliwell, G., Kim, H., Lin, I., Sato, K., Narazaki, T., Shay, L. K., Miles, T., Glenn, S., Zhang, J. A., Jayne, S. R., Centurioni, L., Le Henaff, M., Foltz, G. R., Bringas, F., Ali, M. M., DiMarco, S. F., Hosoda, S., Fukuoka, T., LaCour, B., Mehra, A., Sanabia, E. R., Gyakum, J. R., Dong, J., Knaff, J. A., & Goni, G. Ocean observations in support of studies and forecasts of tropical and extratropical cyclones. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, (2019): 446, doi:10.3389/fmars.2019.00446.Over the past decade, measurements from the climate-oriented ocean observing system have been key to advancing the understanding of extreme weather events that originate and intensify over the ocean, such as tropical cyclones (TCs) and extratropical bomb cyclones (ECs). In order to foster further advancements to predict and better understand these extreme weather events, a need for a dedicated observing system component specifically to support studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs has been identified, but such a system has not yet been implemented. New technologies, pilot networks, targeted deployments of instruments, and state-of-the art coupled numerical models have enabled advances in research and forecast capabilities and illustrate a potential framework for future development. Here, applications and key results made possible by the different ocean observing efforts in support of studies and forecasts of TCs and ECs, as well as recent advances in observing technologies and strategies are reviewed. Then a vision and specific recommendations for the next decade are discussed.This study was supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and JSPS KAKENHI (Grant Numbers: JP17K19093, JP16K12591, and JP16H01846)

A View of Tropical Cyclones from Above: The Tropical Cyclone Intensity Experiment

Tropical cyclone (TC) outflow and its relationship to TC intensity change and structure were investigated in the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field program during 2015 using dropsondes deployed from the innovative new High-Definition Sounding System (HDSS) and remotely sensed observations from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), both on board the NASA WB-57 that flew in the lower stratosphere. Three noteworthy hurricanes were intensively observed with unprecedented horizontal resolution: Joaquin in the Atlantic and Marty and Patricia in the eastern North Pacific. Nearly 800 dropsondes were deployed from the WB-57 flight level of ∼60,000 ft (∼18 km), recording atmospheric conditions from the lower stratosphere to the surface, while HIRAD measured the surface winds in a 50-km-wide swath with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. Dropsonde transects with 4–10-km spacing through the inner cores of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty depict the large horizontal and vertical gradients in winds and thermodynamic properties. An innovative technique utilizing GPS positions of the HDSS reveals the vortex tilt in detail not possible before. In four TCI flights over Joaquin, systematic measurements of a major hurricane’s outflow layer were made at high spatial resolution for the first time. Dropsondes deployed at 4-km intervals as the WB-57 flew over the center of Hurricane Patricia reveal in unprecedented detail the inner-core structure and upper-tropospheric outflow associated with this historic hurricane. Analyses and numerical modeling studies are in progress to understand and predict the complex factors that influenced Joaquin’s and Patricia’s unusual intensity changes

The Relative Roles of Diabatic and Dynamic Processes in Downstream Development Following the Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones Over the Western North Pacific

Extended AbstractNational Science Foundation Climate and Large-Scale DynamicsOffice of Naval Research, Marine Meteorology.National Science Foundation Climate and Large-Scale DynamicsOffice of Naval Research, Marine Meteorology