Analyzing Child Mortality in Nigeria with Geoadditive Survival Models

Child mortality reflects a country's level of socio-economic development and quality of life. In developing countries, mortality rates are not only influenced by socio-economic, demographic and health variables but they also vary considerably across regions and districts. In this paper, we analyze child mortality in Nigeria with flexible geoadditive survival models. This class of models allows to measure small-area district-specific spatial effects simultaneously with possibly nonlinear or time-varying effects of other factors. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses recent Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. The application is based on the 1999 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey. Our method assesses effects at a high level of temporal and spatial resolution not available with traditional parametric models

Geoadditive latent variable modelling of count data on multiple sexual partnering in Nigeria

The 2005 National HIV/AIDS and Reproductive Health Survey in Nigeria provides evidence that multiple sexual partnering increases the risk of contracting HIV and other sexually transmitted diseases. Therefore, partner reduction is one of the prevention strategies to accomplish the Millenium development goal of halting and reversing the spread of HIV/AIDS. In order to explore possible association between sexual partnering and some risk factors, this paper utilizes a novel Bayesian geoadditive latent variable model for count outcomes. This allows us to simultaneously analyze linear and nonlinear effects of covariates as well as spatial variations of one or more latent variables, such as attitude towards multiple partnering, which in turn directly influences the multivariate observable outcomes or indicators. Influence of demographic factors such as age, gender, locality, state of residence, educational attainment, etc., and knowledge about HIV/AIDS on attitude towards multiple partnering is also investigated. Results can provide insights to policy makers with the aim of reducing the spread of HIV and AIDS among the Nigerian populace through partner reduction.factor loading; geographical variations; latent variable model; MCMC; Nigeria; semiparametric Poisson model

Bayesian Geoadditive Seemingly Unrelated Regression

Parametric seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) models are a common tool for multivariate regression analysis when error variables are reasonably correlated, so that separate univariate analysis may result in inefficient estimates of covariate effects. A weakness of parametric models is that they require strong assumptions on the functional form of possibly nonlinear effects of metrical covariates. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian semiparametric SUR model, where the usual linear predictors are replaced by more flexible additive predictors allowing for simultaneous nonparametric estimation of such covariate effects and of spatial effects. The approach is based on appropriate smoothness priors which allow different forms and degrees of smoothness in a general framework. Inference is fully Bayesian and uses recent Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques

Modeling fertility curves in Africa

The modeling of fertility patterns is an essential method researchers use to understand world-wide population patterns. Various types of fertility models have been reported in the literature to capture the patterns specific to developed countries. While much effort has been put into reducing fertility rates in Africa, models which describe the fertility patterns have not been adequately described. This article presents a flexible parametric model that can adequately capture the varying patterns of the age-specific fertility curves of African countries. The model has parameters that are interpretable in terms of demographic indices. The performance of this model was compared with other commonly used models and Akaike’s Information Criterion was used for selecting the model with best fit. The presented model was able to reproduce the empirical fertility data of 11 out of 15 countries better than the other models considered.African countries, age-specific fertility rates, Akaikes Information Criterion, complementary error function, cubic/quadratic spline, polynomial model

Development of A Newton Raphson Symmetrical Component Based Technique for Fault Analysis on Nigerian 330 KV Transmission Lines

Fault analysis is one of the basic problems of power system engineering. It plays a significant role in the power system security for supply of stable and economical operations of power systems. This study carried out fault analysis on Nigerian 330 kV, 28 bus system using Newton-Raphson analysis and symmetrical components method to determine the voltage magnitude and fault magnitude in the system. Newton-Raphson method was used to calculate the short circuit pre-fault voltages and currents on power system. This was used to check the weak buses that are out of acceptable voltage limit of ± 10%. After identifying the buses with problems, a three-phase fault on the power network was then calculated using symmetrical component analysis and was simulated using MATLAB to determine the post-fault voltage magnitudes, angles and fault magnitudes of the power network. The pre-fault result showed that buses 13 (New-Haven), 14 (Onitsha) 19 (Jos), 22 (Kano) and 25 (Markurdi) were the buses that fell out of tolerance range of ± 10% and were termed as weak buses. These buses with low voltage values were examined and post-fault calculations were carried out and the results of voltage magnitude and voltage angle were reduced to zeros.The results of pre-fault current magnitude showed that the selected weak buses namely; Makurdi, New-Haven, Kano, Onitsha and Jos have the current magnitude values of 10.4200 p.u, 9.4350 p.u, 8.4501 p.u, 7.5440 p.u and 5.3320 p.u respectively. The results also showed that Makurdi, had the highest fault magnitudes with a value of  25.1006 p.u followed by New-Haven with value of 23.9455, Kano with value of 22.4917, Jos with value of 21.4686 and Onitsha had the least fault magnitude value of 19.8765 p.u under post-fault condition. More so, it was observed that the voltage on the affected buses was reduced however current magnitudes of these buses when fault occurred were excessively high compared to the pre-fault currents.The result confirmed that symmetrical three phase fault is the most severe kind at the transmission lines. The result also revealed the abnormally high magnitude of current that flows through the Nigerian power network to the point of fault. Therefore, the Nigeria power regulator and policies are required to determine the flow of current regularly during faults occurrences in the power system so as to ensuring improvements in the country power sector. The study therefore recommendations that additional lines should be introduced into the network to assist in the strengthening and reduction of long lines to improve the voltage profile of the network, especially New-Haven, Kano, Onitsha and Markurdi lines. The study will assist the power regulators for selection of circuit breakers and rating of protective switchgears installed in power system to enhance the efficiency of the power supply in Nigeria. Keywords: Fault Analysis, Nigerian Power Network, Newton-Raphson, Symmetrical Components, Three-Phase Fault, Voltage Magnitude, Fault Magnitude. DOI: 10.7176/JNSR/9-16-02 Publication date: August 31st 201

HIV-related risk perception among female sex workers in Nigeria

Augustine Ankomah1, Godpower Omoregie1, Zacch Akinyemi2, Jennifer Anyanti1, Olaronke Ladipo1, Samson Adebayo11Society for Family Health, Abuja, Nigeria; 2Population Services International, Kigali, RwandaBackground: Over one-third of sex workers in Nigeria are infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), yet there is a lack of understanding of sex workers’ own perception of sexual risk-taking. Applying the theory of cognitive dissonance, this paper examined the personal HIV risk perception of brothel-based sex workers.Methods: The study is based on 24 focus group discussions held among brothel-based sex workers in four geographically and culturally dispersed cities in Nigeria.Results: It was found that sex workers underestimated their risk of infection and rationalized, defended, or justified their behaviors, a typical psychological response to worry, threat, and anxiety arising from the apparent discrepancies between beliefs and behaviors. To reduce dissonance, many sex workers had a strong belief in fatalism, predestination, and faith-based invulnerability to HIV infection. Many believed that one will not die of acquired immune deficiency syndrome if it is not ordained by God. The sex workers also had a high level of HIV-related stigma.Conclusion: From these findings, most sex workers considered risk reduction and in particular condom use as far beyond their control or even unnecessary, as a result of their strong beliefs in fatalism and predestination. Therefore, one critical area of intervention is the need to assist sex workers to develop accurate means of assessing their personal vulnerability and self-appraisal of HIV-related risk.Keywords: female sex workers, cognitive dissonance, risk perception, risky behavior, focus group discussions, Nigeri

Relationship between care-givers' misconceptions and non-use of ITNs by under-five Nigerian children

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Malaria has been a major public health problem in Nigeria and many other sub-Saharan African countries. Insecticide-treated nets have shown to be cost-effective in the prevention of malaria, but the number of people that actually use these nets has remained generally low. Studies that explore the determinants of use of ITN are desirable.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Structured questionnaires based on thematic areas were administered by trained interviewers to 7,223 care-givers of under-five children selected from all the six geo-political zones of Nigeria. Bivariate analysis and multinomial logit model were used to identify possible determinants of use of ITN.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Bivariate analysis showed that under-five children whose care-givers had some misconceptions about causes and prevention of malaria were significantly less likely to use ITN even though the household may own a net (p < 0.0001). Education and correct knowledge about modes of prevention of malaria, knowing that malaria is dangerous and malaria can kill were also significantly associated with use of ITN (p < 0.0001). Knowledge of symptoms of malaria did not influence use of ITN. Association of non-use of ITN with misconceptions about prevention of malaria persisted with logistic regression (Odds ratio 0.847; 95% CI 0.747 to 0.960).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Misconceptions about causes and prevention of malaria by caregivers adversely influence the use ITN by under-five children. Appropriate communication strategies should correct these misconceptions.</p

Chapter 21 - Utilization of nanochitosan in the sterilization of ponds and water treatment for aquaculture

Water pollution constitutes the leading cause of infant mortality, neonatal deformities, and shrinkage of man’s average life expectancy. Pollutants come from point and nonpoint sources; and water pollution arises from the discharge of wastewater containing undesirable impurities used for domestic, agricultural, and industrial purposes. More so, high nutrient and wastewater runoffs from fish production systems contribute to the fouling and eutrophication of recipient water bodies. Hence, aquaculture which is inextricably linked to the natural environment is challenged by the dearth of appropriate water quantity and quality, militating against fish, and fishery production. Nanochitosans as polysaccharides produced by the alkalescent deacetylation of chitin, comprise a series of 2-deoxy-2 (acetylamino) glucose linked by ß-(1-4) glycosidic linkages. They are naturally formed from the deacetylation of shellfish shells and exoskeletons of aquatic arthropods and crustaceans. The unique attributes of chitin confer a wide range of biotechnological applications on the polymer, observed in flocculation as a wastewater treatment and purification route initiated by chitosan. This chapter highlights nanochitosan properties of aquaculture relevance; and elucidates the purification potentials of nanochitosan, compared to inorganic coagulants and organic polymeric flocculants. Effects of chitosan on contaminants and microorganisms, as well as applications in fish pathogens detection, fish disease diagnosis, and control are discussed

Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49\ub74% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46\ub74–52\ub70). The TFR decreased from 4\ub77 livebirths (4\ub75–4\ub79) to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub75), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83\ub78 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197\ub72% (193\ub73–200\ub78) since 1950, from 2\ub76 billion (2\ub75–2\ub76) to 7\ub76 billion (7\ub74–7\ub79) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2\ub70%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1\ub71% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2\ub75% in 1963 to 0\ub77% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2\ub77%. The global average age increased from 26\ub76 years in 1950 to 32\ub71 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59\ub79% to 65\ub73%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1\ub70 livebirths (95% UI 0\ub79–1\ub72) in Cyprus to a high of 7\ub71 livebirths (6\ub78–7\ub74) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0\ub708 livebirths (0\ub707–0\ub709) in South Korea to 2\ub74 livebirths (2\ub72–2\ub76) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0\ub73 livebirths (0\ub73–0\ub74) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3\ub71 livebirths (3\ub70–3\ub72) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2\ub70% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation