Autonomous and Financial Mortgage Prepayment

Using individual data from Freddie Mac's portfolio of conventional mortgages, this paper estimates prepayment probabilities as a function of characteristics pertaining to the borrower, the loan, regional, and economic variables. Distinction is made between induced and autonomous prepayments. Based on the curvature of the underlying termination pattern, nonparametric methods are derived to estimate the prepayment probabilities and to predict a mortgage life under various scenarios. The findings point to a response asymmetry with respect to the level and trend of interest rates. Non-interest effects reveal the significance of the borrower's characteristics, property age, and regional mobility rates on mortgage termination.

On the Integration of Emerging Stock Markets in the Middle East

Results from the Johansen-Juselius test suggest that the Middle East emerging stock markets are segmented globally, but appear highly integrated within the region. Moreover, the Gonzalo- Granger test, in conjunction with error-correction models, indicates that the market in Egypt is a dominant force driving other markets in the region. The apparent segmentation of the markets in the Middle East from the global market implies that these emerging markets provide international investors with potential diversification gains.

Quantifying the Effects of Known Unknowns on Inferred High-redshift Galaxy Properties: Burstiness, the IMF, and Nebular Physics

The era of the James Webb Space Telescope ushers stellar populations models into uncharted territories, particularly at the high-redshift frontier. In a companion paper, we apply the \texttt{Prospector} Bayesian framework to jointly infer galaxy redshifts and stellar populations properties from broad-band photometry as part of the UNCOVER survey. Here we present a comprehensive error budget in spectral energy distribution (SED) modeling. Using a $z_{\rm phot}>9$ sample, we quantify the systematic shifts stemming from various model choices in inferred stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), and age. These choices encompass different timescales for changes in the star formation history (SFH), non-universal stellar initial mass functions (IMF), and the inclusion of variable nebular abundances, gas density and ionizing photon budget. We find that the IMF exerts the strongest influence on the inferred properties: the systematic uncertainties can be as much as 1 dex, 2--5 times larger than the formal reported uncertainties in mass and SFR; and importantly, exceed the scatter seen when using different SED fitting codes. This means that a common practice in the literature of assessing uncertainties in SED-fitting processes by comparing multiple codes is substantively underestimating the true systematic uncertainty. Highly stochastic SFHs change the inferred SFH by much larger than the formal uncertainties, and introduce $\sim 0.8$ dex systematics in SFR and $\sim 0.3$ dex systematics in average age. Finally, employing a flexible nebular emission model causes $\sim 0.2$ dex systematic increase in mass, comparable to the formal uncertainty. This paper constitutes one of the initial steps toward a complete uncertainty estimate in SED modeling.Comment: Submitted to ApJ. 18 pages, 8 figures, 2 table

UNCOVER: Illuminating the Early Universe -- JWST/NIRSpec Confirmation of z>12z > 12 Galaxies

Observations of high-redshift galaxies provide a critical direct test to the theories of early galaxy formation, yet to date, only four have been spectroscopically confirmed at $z>12$. Due to strong gravitational lensing over a wide area, the galaxy cluster field Abell~2744 is ideal for searching for the earliest galaxies. Here we present JWST/NIRSpec observations of two galaxies: a robust detection at $z_{\rm spec} = 12.393^{+0.004}_{-0.001}$, and a plausible candidate at $z_{\rm spec} = 13.079^{+0.013}_{-0.001}$. The galaxies are discovered in JWST/NIRCam imaging and their distances are inferred with JWST/NIRSpec spectroscopy, all from the JWST Cycle 1 UNCOVER Treasury survey. Detailed stellar population modeling using JWST NIRCam and NIRSpec data corroborates the primeval characteristics of these galaxies: low mass ($\sim 10^8~{\rm M_\odot}$), young, rapidly-assembling, metal-poor, and star-forming. Interestingly, both galaxies are spatially resolved, having lensing-corrected rest-UV effective radii on the order of 300-400 pc, which are notably larger than other spectroscopically confirmed $z \gtrsim 12$ systems. The observed dynamic range of $z \gtrsim 12$ size spans over an order of magnitude, implying a significant scatter in the size-mass relation at early times. Deep into the epoch of reionization, these discoveries elucidate the emergence of the first galaxies.Comment: submitted to ApJL; 13 pages, 4 figures, 2 table

UNCOVER: The growth of the first massive black holes from JWST/NIRSpec -- spectroscopic confirmation of an X-ray luminous AGN at z=10.1

The James Webb Space Telescope is now detecting early black holes (BHs) as they transition from "seeds" to supermassive BHs. Recently Bogdan et al. (2023) reported the detection of an X-ray luminous supermassive BH, UHZ-1, with a photometric redshift at $z > 10$. Such an extreme source at this very high redshift provides new insights on seeding and growth models for BHs given the short time available for formation and growth. Harnessing the exquisite sensitivity of JWST/NIRSpec, here we report the spectroscopic confirmation of UHZ-1 at $z = 10.073 \pm 0.002$. We find that the NIRSpec/Prism spectrum is typical of recently discovered z~10 galaxies, characterized primarily by star-formation features. We see no clear evidence of the powerful X-ray source in the rest-frame UV/optical spectrum, which may suggest heavy obscuration of the central BH, in line with the Compton-thick column density measured in the X-rays. We perform a stellar population fit simultaneously to the new NIRSpec spectroscopy and previously available photometry. The fit yields a stellar mass estimate for the host galaxy that is significantly better constrained than prior photometric estimates ($M_*\sim 1.4^{+0.3}_{-0.4} \times 10^8 M_\odot$). Given the predicted BH mass ($M_{\rm BH}\sim10^7-10^8 M_\odot$), the resulting ratio of $M_{\rm BH}/M_*$ remains two to three orders of magnitude higher than local values, thus lending support to the heavy seeding channel for the formation of supermassive BHs within the first billion years of cosmic evolution.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, submitted to ApJL. Minor text correction

UNCOVER: A NIRSpec Identification of a Broad-line AGN at z = 8.50

Deep observations with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) have revealed an emerging population of red pointlike sources that could provide a link between the postulated supermassive black hole seeds and observed quasars. In this work, we present a JWST/NIRSpec spectrum from the JWST Cycle 1 UNCOVER Treasury survey of a massive accreting black hole at z = 8.50 displaying a clear broad-line component as inferred from the Hβ line with FWHM = 3439 ± 413 km s−1, typical of the broad-line region of an active galactic nucleus (AGN). The AGN nature of this object is further supported by high ionization, as inferred from emission lines, and a point-source morphology. We compute a black hole mass of and a bolometric luminosity of Lbol ∼ 6.6 × 1045 erg s−1. These values imply that our object is accreting at ∼40% of the Eddington limit. Detailed modeling of the spectral energy distribution in the optical and near-infrared, together with constraints from ALMA, indicate an upper limit on the stellar mass of , which would lead to an unprecedented ratio of black hole to host mass of at least ∼30%. This is orders of magnitude higher compared to the local QSOs but consistent with recent AGN studies at high redshift with JWST. This finding suggests that a nonnegligible fraction of supermassive black holes either started out from massive seeds and/or grew at a super-Eddington rate at high redshift. Given the predicted number densities of high-z faint AGN, future NIRSpec observations of larger samples will allow us to further investigate galaxy–black hole coevolution in the early Universe

UNCOVER:A NIRSpec Identification of a Broad-line AGN at z = 8.50

Deep observations with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) have revealed an emerging population of red pointlike sources that could provide a link between the postulated supermassive black hole seeds and observed quasars. In this work, we present a JWST/NIRSpec spectrum from the JWST Cycle 1 UNCOVER Treasury survey of a massive accreting black hole at z = 8.50 displaying a clear broad-line component as inferred from the Hβ line with FWHM = 3439 ± 413 km s−1, typical of the broad-line region of an active galactic nucleus (AGN). The AGN nature of this object is further supported by high ionization, as inferred from emission lines, and a point-source morphology. We compute a black hole mass of log 10 ( M BH / M ⊙ ) = 8.17 ± 0.42 and a bolometric luminosity of L bol ∼ 6.6 × 1045 erg s−1. These values imply that our object is accreting at ∼40% of the Eddington limit. Detailed modeling of the spectral energy distribution in the optical and near-infrared, together with constraints from ALMA, indicate an upper limit on the stellar mass of log 10 ( M * / M ⊙ ) &lt; 8.7 , which would lead to an unprecedented ratio of black hole to host mass of at least ∼30%. This is orders of magnitude higher compared to the local QSOs but consistent with recent AGN studies at high redshift with JWST. This finding suggests that a nonnegligible fraction of supermassive black holes either started out from massive seeds and/or grew at a super-Eddington rate at high redshift. Given the predicted number densities of high-z faint AGN, future NIRSpec observations of larger samples will allow us to further investigate galaxy-black hole coevolution in the early Universe.</p

DUALZ: Deep UNCOVER-ALMA Legacy High-Z Survey

We present the survey design and initial results of the ALMA Cycle 9 program of DUALZ, which aims to establish a joint ALMA and JWST public legacy field targeting the massive galaxy cluster Abell 2744. DUALZ features a contiguous $4'\times6'$ ALMA 30-GHz-wide mosaic in Band 6, covering areas of $\mu>2$ down to a sensitivity of $\sigma=32.7~\mu$Jy. Through a blind search, we identified 69 dust continuum sources at S/N $\gtrsim5.0$ with median redshift and intrinsic 1.2-mm flux of $z=2.30$ and $S_{\rm 1.2mm}^{\rm int}=0.24$~mJy. Of these, 27 have been spectroscopically confirmed, leveraged by the latest NIRSpec observations, while photometric redshift estimates are constrained by the comprehensive HST, NIRCam, and ALMA data for the remaining sources. With priors, we further identify a [CII]158 $\mu$m line emitter at $z=6.3254\pm0.0004$, confirmed by the latest NIRSpec spectroscopy. The NIRCam counterparts of the 1.2-mm continuum exhibit undisturbed morphologies, denoted either by disk or spheroid, implying the triggers for the faint mm emission are less catastrophic than mergers. We have identified 8 HST-dark galaxies (F150W$>$27mag, F150W$-$F444W$>$2.3) and 2 JWST-dark (F444W$>$30mag) galaxy candidates among the ALMA continuum sources. The former includes face-on disk galaxies, hinting that substantial dust obscuration does not always result from inclination. We also detect a marginal dust emission from an X-ray-detected galaxy at $z_{\rm spec}=10.07$, suggesting an active co-evolution of the central black hole and its host. We assess the infrared luminosity function up to $z\sim10$ and find it consistent with predictions from galaxy formation models. To foster diverse scientific outcomes from the community, we publicly release reduced ALMA mosaic maps, cubes, and the source catalog.Comment: 33 pages, 16 figures, and 5 tables. Submitted to ApJS. The ALMA products are fully available from here: https://jwst-uncover.github.io/DR2.html#DUAL

UNCOVER: A NIRSpec Identification of a Broad Line AGN at z = 8.50

Deep observations with JWST have revealed an emerging population of red point-like sources that could provide a link between the postulated supermassive black hole seeds and observed quasars. In this work we present a JWST/NIRSpec spectrum from the JWST Cycle 1 UNCOVER Treasury survey, of a massive accreting black hole at $z=8.50$, displaying a clear broad-line component as inferred from the H$\beta$ line with FWHM = $3439\pm413$ km s$^{-1}$, typical of the broad line region of an active galactic nucleus (AGN). The AGN nature of this object is further supported by high ionization, as inferred from emission lines, and a point-source morphology. We compute the black hole mass of log$_{10}(M_{\rm BH}/M_\odot)=8.17\pm0.42$, and a bolometric luminosity of $L_{\rm bol}\sim6.6\times10^{45}$ erg s$^{-1}$. These values imply that our object is accreting at $\sim 40\%$ of the Eddington limit. Detailed modeling of the spectral energy distribution in the optical and near-infrared, together with constraints from ALMA, indicate an upper limit on the stellar mass of log$_{10}(M_{\rm *}/M_\odot)<8.7$, which would lead to an unprecedented ratio of black hole to host mass of at least $\sim 30 \%$. This is orders of magnitude higher compared to the local QSOs, but is consistent with recent AGN studies at high redshift with JWST. This finding suggests that a non-negligible fraction of supermassive black holes either started out from massive seeds and/or grew at a super-Eddington rate at high redshift. Given the predicted number densities of high-$z$ faint AGN, future NIRSpec observations of larger samples will allow us to further investigate the galaxy-black hole co-evolution in the early Universe.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables. Submitted to ApJ

First spectroscopic observations of the galaxies that reionized the Universe

Low-mass galaxies in the early universe are believed to be the building blocks of present-day galaxies. These fledgling systems likely played a pivotal role in cosmic reionization, a major phase transition from neutral Hydrogen to ionized plasma around 600-800 Myr after the Big Bang. However, these galaxies have eluded comprehensive spectroscopic studies owing to their extreme faintness. Here we report the first spectroscopic analysis of 8 ultra-faint galaxies during the epoch of reionization with absolute magnitudes between M$_{\rm UV}$ $\sim -17$ to $-15$ mag (down to 0.005 $L^{\star}$). The combination of ultra-deep NIRSpec (Near-Infrared Spectrograph) observations and the strong gravitational lensing boost of Abell~2744 allow us to derive the first spectroscopic constraints on the prevalence of faint galaxies and their ionizing properties during the Universe's first billion years. We find that faint galaxies are prodigious producers of ionizing photons with log($\xi_{\rm ion}$/ Hz erg$^{-1}$) =$25.8\pm 0.05$, a factor of 4 larger than canonical values. This means that the total rate of ionizing photons produced by galaxies exceeds that needed for reionization, even for modest values of escape fraction ($f_{\rm esc}$ =5%). These findings provide robust evidence that faint galaxies were the main drivers of cosmic reionization at $z\sim7$.Comment: 29 pages, 7 figures, 2 table