Modeling population dynamics and economic growth as competing species: An application to CO2 global emissions

Since the beginning of the last century the world is experiencing an important demographic transition, which will probably impact on economic growth. Many demographers and social scientists are trying to understand the key drivers of such transition as well as its profound implications. A correct understanding will help to predict other important trends of the world primary energy demand and the carbon emission to the atmosphere, which may be leading to an important climate change. This paper proposes a set of coupled differential equations to describe the changes of population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions, modeled as competing-species as in Lokta-Volterra prey-predator relations. The predator–prey model is well known in the biological, ecological and environmental literature and has also been applied successfully in other fields. This model proposes a new and simple conceptual explanation of the interactions and feedbacks among the principal driving forces leading to the present transition. The estimated results for the temporal evolution of world population, gross domestic product, primary energy consumption and carbon emissions are calculated from year 1850 to year 2150. The calculated scenarios are in good agreement with common world data and projections for the next 100 years.Population dynamics, economic growth, primary energy consumption, carbon emission model, Lokta-Volterra Equations, Prey-predator model.

Inventario de emisiones a la atmósfera de compuestos orgánicos persistentes seleccionados en Mendoza para el año 2011

El presente trabajo trata la identificación y análisis de fuentes específicas de Contaminantes Orgánicos Persistentes junto con el cálculo de sus emisiones, en el área del Gran Mendoza, durante el año 2011. Se estimaron las emisiones de Bifenilos Policlorados (PCB), Hexaclorobenceno (HCB), y Diclorodifeniltricloroetano (DDT). Debido a la gran variedad de fuentes y compuestos involucrados y a limitaciones en la disponibilidad de información, no se utilizó un método armonizado para todos los compuestos en la preparación del inventario. Los datos presentados en este estudio proporcionan un panorama general de las emisiones en el Gran Mendoza. Finalmente, se destaca la necesidad de un esfuerzo mayor en la caracterización y validación de las emisiones, tanto para la obtención de relaciones entre fuentes y receptores, como también para el desarrollo de estrategias de control. Asimismo, esta información es crucial para lograr una reducción en la carga de estas sustancias, a nivel local y regional.The present work is focused on the identification and analysis of specific sources of Permanent Organic Pollutants together with the calculation of emissions in the Great Mendoza during 2011. Emissions of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), hexachlorobenzene (HCB) and Dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethane (DDT) were estimated. Due to the wide variety of sources and compounds involved and the limited availability of information, a harmonized method for all compounds in the preparation of the inventory was not used. Data submitted in this study provide an overview of the emissions in the Great Mendoza urban area. Finally, great efforts in the characterization and validation of emissions, both for obtaining relationships between sources and sinks, as well as for the development of strategies to control them are needed. Also, this information is crucial to achieve a reduction in the burden of these substances, at local and regional level.Asociación Argentina de Energías Renovables y Medio Ambiente (ASADES

Modelación regional de inyección de aerosoles de sulfato para reducción de la temperatura media global en forma artificial : caso: región de cuyo

Resumen: Esta investigación está basada en el método de inyección de aerosoles de sulfato en la estratosfera baja, derivada de la geoingeniería climática. La técnica se fundamenta en los efectos provocados por las erupciones volcánicas y su objetivo es incrementar los niveles naturales de aerosoles de sulfato de manera artificial, causando un aumento en el albedo planetario y reduciendo la entrada de la radiación solar y, logrando la disminución de la temperatura media global. Hasta el momento los científicos se han abocado a la realización de estudios con modelo de circulación general, sin embargo, se cree importante poner a prueba esta técnica de geoingeniería bajo una visión local. En razón de ello, se propone desarrollar un modelo regional de inyección de aerosoles de sulfato en la estratosfera baja para reducción de la temperatura media global, elegir escenarios (regionales) ambientalmente sostenibles de siembra y con ellos estudiar los balances de los impactos positivos y negativos, como así también, la sensibilidad del área. La zona en estudio es la Región de Cuyo debido a presenta antecedentes de alta vulnerabilidad en sus ecosistemas y, por tanto, también podría ser susceptible al empleo de sulfatos estratosféricos. El modelo regional, WRF se utilizará para el estudio

Application of Tropospheric Sulfate Aerosol Emissions to Mitigate Meteorological Phenomena with Extremely High Daily Temperatures

This research examined whether tropospheric sulfate ion aerosols (SO42−) might be applied at a regional scale to mitigate meteorological phenomena with extremely high daily temperatures. The specific objectives of this work were: 1) to model the behaviour of SO42−aerosols in the troposphere and their influence on surface temperature and incident solar radiation, at a regional scale, using an appropriate online coupled mesoscale meteorology and chemistry model; 2) to determine the main engineering design parameters using tropospheric SO42−aerosols in order to artificially reduce the temperature and incoming radiation at surface during events of extremely high daily temperatures, and 3) to evaluate a preliminary technical proposal for the injection of regionally engineered tropospheric SO42−aerosols based on the integral anti-hail system of the Province of Mendoza. In order to accomplish these objectives, we used the Weather Research & Forecasting Model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) to model and evaluate the behaviour of tropospheric SO42−over the Province of Mendoza (Argentina) (PMA) on a clear sky day during a heat wave event occurred in January 2012. In addition, using WRF/Chem, we evaluated the potential reductions on surface temperature and incident shortwave radiation around the metropolitan area of Great Mendoza, PMA, based on an artificially designed aerosol layer and on observed meteorological parameters. The results demonstrated the ability of WRF/Chem to represent the behaviour of tropospheric SO42− aerosols at a regional scale and suggested that the inclusion of these aerosols in the atmosphere causes changes in the surface energy balance and, therefore, in the surface temperature and the regional atmospheric circulation. However, it became evident that, given the high rate of injection and the large amount of mass required for its practical implementation by means of the technology currently used by the anti-hail program, it is inefficient and energetically costly

Estudio de la dispersión de cenizas volcánicas del Puyehue : simulaciones y validación

Resumen: El presente trabajo está centrado en la utilización y validación del modelo FALL3D para la simulación de la dispersión de aerosoles, durante la erupción del volcán Puyehue, ocurrida el 4 de junio de 2011. Este modelo Euleriano fue configurado para modelar la pluma de cenizas durante un período de 10 días. Se validaron las salidas meteorológicamente con datos de superficie y altura provenientes de estaciones de los Servicios Meteorológicos de Argentina y Chile. Asimismo, utilizando datos satelitales de MODIS, se aplicaron varios algoritmos para la detección de ceniza volcánica, verificando así la evolución de la pluma. El buen acuerdo entre las comparaciones cualitativas y cuantitativas de las simulaciones con las mediciones sugiere una adecuada aproximación de modelado y permite la aplicación futura de estas herramientas para el estudio de los efectos radiativos de aerosoles volcánicosAbstract: This work is focused on the use and validation of the Eulerian model FALL3D in the simulation of volcanic aerosol dispersion during the Puyehue volcano eruption, occurred on June 4th 2011. This Eulerian model was configured to simulate de ash plume development during a period of 10 days. Model outputs were validated against surface and upper air meteorological data obtained from the Argentina and Chile meteorological services. In addition, using MODIS satellite data, two methods for ash discrimination were applied to verify the plume evolution. The good agreement of the qualitative and quantitative comparisons between simulated and measured data suggest an appropriate modeling approach and allows a future application of these tools in the study of radiative effects of volcanic aerosol

Evaluation of the WRF model configuration for zonda wind events in a complex terrain

Abstract: The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate two mesoscale events of Zonda winds that occurred in August 2010 and April 2011. The model was applied on a complex terrain area of high mountains in Mendoza, western Argentina. The WRF numerical model performance was evaluated for two reanalysis datasets and two land use and land cover databases in order to verify the influence of boundary conditions and to find the configuration that best reproduces these severe conditions. Results were evaluated using meteorological data from three surface stations and two stations with radiosondes for the following variables: temperature, dew point, and meridional and zonal winds components. Upper air data were analysed for standard pressure levels. Results clearly showed a better performance from the locally adapted model in predicting surface variables. Furthermore, distinct tendencies were found with regard to the preferred configuration for upper air variables at different levels of pressure, both in the use of land use and land cover databases and of reanalysis dat

Evaluation of the WRF model configuration for zonda wind events in a complex terrain

Abstract: The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate two mesoscale events of Zonda winds that occurred in August 2010 and April 2011. The model was applied on a complex terrain area of high mountains in Mendoza, western Argentina. The WRF numerical model performance was evaluated for two reanalysis datasets and two land use and land cover databases in order to verify the influence of boundary conditions and to find the configuration that best reproduces these severe conditions. Results were evaluated using meteorological data from three surface stations and two stations with radiosondes for the following variables: temperature, dew point, and meridional and zonal winds components. Upper air data were analysed for standard pressure levels. Results clearly showed a better performance from the locally adapted model in predicting surface variables. Furthermore, distinct tendencies were found with regard to the preferred configuration for upper air variables at different levels of pressure, both in the use of land use and land cover databases and of reanalysis dat

Modelling of a Zonda wind event in a complex terrain region using WRF

The air quality modeling in a regional scale requires the coupling to Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, mainly when a high spatial and temporal resolution is required, such as in those cases related to large pollutants emissions episodes or extreme weather events. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) is a last generation NWP model which computes temperature, pressure, humidity and wind fields in high spatial and temporal resolution. In order to perform simulations in complex terrain regions, WRF must be locally configured to obtain a proper representation of the physical processes, and an independent validation must be performed, both under common and extreme conditions. Once the local configuration is obtained, a full atmospheric chemistry modeling can be performed by means of WRF-Chem. In this work a mesoescale event of Zonda wind (similar to Foehn and Chinook winds) affecting the topographically complex mountainous region of Mendoza (Argentina) on February 15th, 2007 is represented using WRF. The model results are compared to the Argentine National Weather Service (SMN) observations at “El Plumerillo” station (WMO #87418), showing a good performance. A description of the local model configuration and most important physical parameterizations selected for the simulations is given, including the improvement of the default resolution of land use and land cover (LULC) fields. The high resolution modeling domain considered is centered at the city of Mendoza (32◦ 53’ South, 68◦ 50’ West), it extends 200 km N/S × 160 km E/W and includes a 3-nested domain downscaling of 36, 12 and 4 km resolution, respectively. The results for the Zonda wind episode show a very good performance of the model both in spatial and temporal scales. The temporal dew point variation (the physical variable that best describes the Zonda wind) shows a good agreement with the measured values, with a sharp decrease of 20 ºC (from 16 ºC to −4 ºC) in 3 hours. A full 3-D regional description of the Zonda wind generation and evolution is also given and related to the synoptic scale conditions prevailing during the modeled period. The performance of the local WRF configuration has been further analyzed for a 3 months period (January-March 2007) by means of MODIS atmospheric products, radiosounding data and radiometer measurements of water vapor. The differences between radiosondes and WRF temperature vertical profiles are < 1 ºC, with deviations that do not exceed 1.5 ºC for pressure levels above 850 mbar, while near surface differences reach up to 3 ºC. WRF shows good correlation with radiometer and radiosonde tropospheric water vapor content, except for particularly high values retrieved by the radiometer, which may be attributed to the presence of clouds. Further work will apply the local configuration into WRF-Chem for air quality studies, including a recently developed high-resolution emissions inventory for Mendoza..

Aerosols measurement as product of biomass burning onc cryosphere in the Central Andes

The cryosphere on the Central Andes between Argentina and Chile is an important water reservoir; therefore, it is important to ensure the sustainability of this resource for the ecosystem and millions of people in this region. Then, the knowledge about hydrological cycle and the different phenomena that are affecting its radiative balance caused by absorbing aerosols of solar radiation, some of these aerosols can be generated by large burning of biomass, a practice that occurs during crop changes in the austral spring in South America. For this reason, it has been analyzed in several basins uses remote knowledge data for 17 years (2000 - 2016) and the analysis of variations on snow albedo, aerosol optical depth (ODA) and land surface temperature of several water basins of that region. The partial results indicate a negative tendency in the snow albedo decrease related to the AOD variations. The next step will be collect snow samples to measure levoglucosan, mannosan and galactosan to establish if there is on snow presence of aerosol from the biomass combustion and the type of biomass source..

Examining the influence of meteorological simulations forced by different initial and boundary conditions in volcanic ash dispersion modelling

Abstract: The performance of the combination of the Fall3D ash dispersion model with the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) meteorological model in the southern cone of South America under two initial and boundary conditions was evaluated. ERA-Interim and NCEP-GFS databases were used as dynamic conditions by WRF to simulate meteorological fields for FALL3D. As a case study, we used the eruption of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex occurred in Chile in June 2011. The simulated meteorological results were compared with the horizontal wind direction, meridional and zonal wind components, air and dew point temperatures of 7 radio sounding stations using a set of error indicators. In addition, the ash mass load simulated by FALL3D for a day of maximum dispersion of volcanic ash was evaluated using the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), on which the Prata algorithm was applied. As well as this, the WRF dominant physical processes with both dynamic conditions were analyzed for that same date. Meteorological results indicated that the simulation performed with WRF and NCEPGFS shows the lowest errors at levels between 925 hPa and 300 hPa. Ash dispersion simulated with FALL3D and WRF in both dynamic conditions shows a different perfomance, which from the synoptic and dynamic viewpoint can be explained for the result of wind intensity and geopotential height. Moreover, WRF intiliazed with NCEPGFS and FALL3D has a higher degree of concordance with the MODIS image. Based on the analysis and results, it was concluded that for the southern cone of South America: 1) it was not trivial for the simulation of volcanic ash dispersion to use one dynamic condition or another in WRF; 2) in that sense, meteorological variables that influenced the differences in volcanic ash dispersion were horizontal wind intensity and direction and geopotential heights; 3) the system generated from the combination of the WRF model initialized with NCEP-GFS and the FALL3D dispersion model would provide better estimations of ash plume position and deposition in the regio