Evaluation of the Parasight Platform for Malaria Diagnosis

The World Health Organization estimates that nearly 500 million malaria tests are performed annually. While microscopy and rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are the main diagnostic approaches, no single method is inexpensive, rapid, and highly accurate. Two recent studies from our group have demonstrated a prototype computer vision platform that meets those needs. Here we present the results from two clinical studies on the commercially available version of this technology, the Sight Diagnostics Parasight platform, which provides malaria diagnosis, species identification, and parasite quantification. We conducted a multisite trial in Chennai, India (Apollo Hospital [n = 205]), and Nairobi, Kenya (Aga Khan University Hospital [n = 263]), in which we compared the device to microscopy, RDTs, and PCR. For identification of malaria, the device performed similarly well in both contexts (sensitivity of 99% and specificity of 100% at the Indian site and sensitivity of 99.3% and specificity of 98.9% at the Kenyan site, compared to PCR). For species identification, the device correctly identified 100% of samples with Plasmodium vivax and 100% of samples with Plasmodium falciparum in India and 100% of samples with P. vivax and 96.1% of samples with P. falciparum in Kenya, compared to PCR. Lastly, comparisons of the device parasite counts with those of trained microscopists produced average Pearson correlation coefficients of 0.84 at the Indian site and 0.85 at the Kenyan site

Formation of galaxies in {\Lambda}CDM cosmologies. I. The fine structure of disc galaxies

We present a detailed analysis of the global and fine structure of four middle-mass disc galaxies obtained from simulations in a $\Lambda$CDM scenario. These objects have photometric D/T ratios in good agreement with those observed for late-type spirals, as well as kinematic properties in agreement with the observational Tully-Fisher relation. We identify the different dynamical components at z=0 on the basis of both orbital parameters and the binding energy of stars in the galaxy. In this way, we recognize a slowly rotating centrally concentrated spheroid, and two disc components supported by rotation: a thin disc with stars in nearly circular orbits, and a thick disc with orbital parameters transitional between the thin disc and the spheroid. The spheroidal component is composed mainly by old, metal-poor and {\alpha}-enhanced stars. The distribution of metals in this component shows, however, a clear bimodality with a low-metallicity peak, which could be related to a classical bulge, and a high-metallicity peak, which could be related to a pseudo-bulge. The thin disc appears in our simulations as the youngest and most metal-rich component. The radial distribution of ages and colours in this component are U-shaped: the new stars are forming in the inner regions, and then migrate through secular processes. Finally, we also find a thick disc containing about 16% of the total stellar mass and with properties that are intermediate between those of the thin disc and the spheroid. Its low-metallicity stars are {\alpha}-enhanced when compared to thin disc stars of the same metallicity. The structural parameters (e.g., the scale height) of the simulated thick discs suggest that such a component could result from the combination of different thickening mechanisms that include merger-driven processes, but also long-lived internal perturbations of the thin disc. [Abridged]Comment: 23 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS, references fixe

A clinical evaluation of an ex vivo organ culture system to predict patient response to cancer therapy

IntroductionEx vivo organ cultures (EVOC) were recently optimized to sustain cancer tissue for 5 days with its complete microenvironment. We examined the ability of an EVOC platform to predict patient response to cancer therapy.MethodsA multicenter, prospective, single-arm observational trial. Samples were obtained from patients with newly diagnosed bladder cancer who underwent transurethral resection of bladder tumor and from core needle biopsies of patients with metastatic cancer. The tumors were cut into 250 μM slices and cultured within 24 h, then incubated for 96 h with vehicle or intended to treat drug. The cultures were then fixed and stained to analyze their morphology and cell viability. Each EVOC was given a score based on cell viability, level of damage, and Ki67 proliferation, and the scores were correlated with the patients’ clinical response assessed by pathology or Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST).ResultsThe cancer tissue and microenvironment, including endothelial and immune cells, were preserved at high viability with continued cell division for 5 days, demonstrating active cell signaling dynamics. A total of 34 cancer samples were tested by the platform and were correlated with clinical results. A higher EVOC score was correlated with better clinical response. The EVOC system showed a predictive specificity of 77.7% (7/9, 95% CI 0.4–0.97) and a sensitivity of 96% (24/25, 95% CI 0.80–0.99).ConclusionEVOC cultured for 5 days showed high sensitivity and specificity for predicting clinical response to therapy among patients with muscle-invasive bladder cancer and other solid tumors

Galaxy bulges and their massive black holes: a review

With references to both key and oft-forgotten pioneering works, this article starts by presenting a review into how we came to believe in the existence of massive black holes at the centres of galaxies. It then presents the historical development of the near-linear (black hole)-(host spheroid) mass relation, before explaining why this has recently been dramatically revised. Past disagreement over the slope of the (black hole)-(velocity dispersion) relation is also explained, and the discovery of sub-structure within the (black hole)-(velocity dispersion) diagram is discussed. As the search for the fundamental connection between massive black holes and their host galaxies continues, the competing array of additional black hole mass scaling relations for samples of predominantly inactive galaxies are presented.Comment: Invited (15 Feb. 2014) review article (submitted 16 Nov. 2014). 590 references, 9 figures, 25 pages in emulateApJ format. To appear in "Galactic Bulges", E. Laurikainen, R.F. Peletier, and D.A. Gadotti (eds.), Springer Publishin

Light-front holographic QCD and emerging confinement

In this report we explore the remarkable connections between light-front dynamics, its holographic mapping to gravity in a higher-dimensional anti-de Sitter (AdS) space, and conformal quantum mechanics. This approach provides new insights into the origin of a fundamental mass scale and the physics underlying confinement dynamics in QCD in the limit of massless quarks. The result is a relativistic light-front wave equation for arbitrary spin with an effective confinement potential derived from a conformal action and its embedding in AdS space. This equation allows for the computation of essential features of hadron spectra in terms of a single scale. The light-front holographic methods described here give a precise interpretation of holographic variables and quantities in AdS space in terms of light-front variables and quantum numbers. This leads to a relation between the AdS wave functions and the boost-invariant light-front wave functions describing the internal structure of hadronic bound-states in physical space-time. The pion is massless in the chiral limit and the excitation spectra of relativistic light-quark meson and baryon bound states lie on linear Regge trajectories with identical slopes in the radial and orbital quantum numbers. In the light-front holographic approach described here currents are expressed as an infinite sum of poles, and form factors as a product of poles. At large q(2) the form factor incorporates the correct power-law fall-off for hard scattering independent of the specific dynamics and is dictated by the twist. At low q2 the form factor leads to vector dominance. The approach is also extended to include small quark masses. We briefly review in this report other holographic approaches to QCD, in particular top-down and bottom-up models based on chiral symmetry breaking. We also include a discussion of open problems and future applications. (C)) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk–outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk–outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk–outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk–outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017. Findings In 2017, 34·1 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 33·3–35·0) deaths and 1·21 billion (1·14–1·28) DALYs were attributable to GBD risk factors. Globally, 61·0% (59·6–62·4) of deaths and 48·3% (46·3–50·2) of DALYs were attributed to the GBD 2017 risk factors. When ranked by risk-attributable DALYs, high systolic blood pressure (SBP) was the leading risk factor, accounting for 10·4 million (9·39–11·5) deaths and 218 million (198–237) DALYs, followed by smoking (7·10 million [6·83–7·37] deaths and 182 million [173–193] DALYs), high fasting plasma glucose (6·53 million [5·23–8·23] deaths and 171 million [144–201] DALYs), high body-mass index (BMI; 4·72 million [2·99–6·70] deaths and 148 million [98·6–202] DALYs), and short gestation for birthweight (1·43 million [1·36–1·51] deaths and 139 million [131–147] DALYs). In total, risk-attributable DALYs declined by 4·9% (3·3–6·5) between 2007 and 2017. In the absence of demographic changes (ie, population growth and ageing), changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs would have led to a 23·5% decline in DALYs during that period. Conversely, in the absence of changes in risk exposure and risk-deleted DALYs, demographic changes would have led to an 18·6% increase in DALYs during that period. The ratios of observed risk exposure levels to exposure levels expected based on SDI (O/E ratios) increased globally for unsafe drinking water and household air pollution between 1990 and 2017. This result suggests that development is occurring more rapidly than are changes in the underlying risk structure in a population. Conversely, nearly universal declines in O/E ratios for smoking and alcohol use indicate that, for a given SDI, exposure to these risks is declining. In 2017, the leading Level 4 risk factor for age-standardised DALY rates was high SBP in four super-regions: central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia; north Africa and Middle East; south Asia; and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania. The leading risk factor in the high-income super-region was smoking, in Latin America and Caribbean was high BMI, and in sub-Saharan Africa was unsafe sex. O/E ratios for unsafe sex in sub-Saharan Africa were notably high, and those for alcohol use in north Africa and the Middle East were notably low. Interpretation By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Erratum: Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Interpretation: By quantifying levels and trends in exposures to risk factors and the resulting disease burden, this assessment offers insight into where past policy and programme efforts might have been successful and highlights current priorities for public health action. Decreases in behavioural, environmental, and occupational risks have largely offset the effects of population growth and ageing, in relation to trends in absolute burden. Conversely, the combination of increasing metabolic risks and population ageing will probably continue to drive the increasing trends in non-communicable diseases at the global level, which presents both a public health challenge and opportunity. We see considerable spatiotemporal heterogeneity in levels of risk exposure and risk-attributable burden. Although levels of development underlie some of this heterogeneity, O/E ratios show risks for which countries are overperforming or underperforming relative to their level of development. As such, these ratios provide a benchmarking tool to help to focus local decision making. Our findings reinforce the importance of both risk exposure monitoring and epidemiological research to assess causal connections between risks and health outcomes, and they highlight the usefulness of the GBD study in synthesising data to draw comprehensive and robust conclusions that help to inform good policy and strategic health planning

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. Methods: GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Findings: Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990–2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0–9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10–24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10–24 years were also in the top ten in the 25–49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50–74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. Interpretation: As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and developm nt investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 licens

Early disc accretion as the origin of abundance anomalies in globular clusters

Globular clusters (GCs), once thought to be well approximated as simple stellar populations (i.e. all stars having the same age and chemical abundance), are now known to host a variety of anomalies, such as multiple discrete (or spreads in) populations in colour–magnitude diagrams and abundance variations in light elements (e.g. Na, O, Al). Multiple models have been put forward to explain the observed anomalies, although all have serious shortcomings (e.g. requiring a non-standard initial mass function of stars and GCs to have been initially 10–100 times more massive than observed today). These models also do not agree with observations of massive stellar clusters forming today, which do not display significant age spreads nor have gas/dust within the cluster. Here we present a model for the formation of GCs, where low-mass pre-main-sequence stars accrete enriched material released from interacting massive binary and rapidly rotating stars on to their circumstellar discs, and ultimately on to the young stars. As was shown in previous studies, the accreted material matches the unusual abundances and patterns observed in GCs. The proposed model does not require multiple generations of star formation, conforms to the known properties of massive clusters forming today and solves the ‘mass budget problem’ without requiring GCs to have been significantly more massive at birth. Potential caveats to the model as well as model predictions are discussed

A MODEST review

We present an account of the state of the art in the fields explored by the research community invested in 'Modeling and Observing DEnse STellar systems'. For this purpose, we take as a basis the activities of the MODEST-17 conference, which was held at Charles University, Prague, in September 2017. Reviewed topics include recent advances in fundamental stellar dynamics, numerical methods for the solution of the gravitational N-body problem, formation and evolution of young and old star clusters and galactic nuclei, their elusive stellar populations, planetary systems, and exotic compact objects, with timely attention to black holes of different classes of mass and their role as sources of gravitational waves. Such a breadth of topics reflects the growing role played by collisional stellar dynamics in numerous areas of modern astrophysics. Indeed, in the next decade, many revolutionary instruments will enable the derivation of positions and velocities of individual stars in the Milky Way and its satellites and will detect signals from a range of astrophysical sources in different portions of the electromagnetic and gravitational spectrum, with an unprecedented sensitivity. On the one hand, this wealth of data will allow us to address a number of long-standing open questions in star cluster studies; on the other hand, many unexpected properties of these systems will come to light, stimulating further progress of our understanding of their formation and evolution.Comment: 42 pages; accepted for publication in 'Computational Astrophysics and Cosmology'. We are much grateful to the organisers of the MODEST-17 conference (Charles University, Prague, September 2017). We acknowledge the input provided by all MODEST-17 participants, and, more generally, by the members of the MODEST communit