Climate change and heat-waves : rural-to-urban migration in Pakistan, a silent looming crisis

The policy brief summarizes findings and recommendations from a recent study on climate-induced internal migration in Pakistan. Heat stress in particular affects agricultural productivity of winter crops like wheat, a staple food which is grown in arid and semiarid areas of Pakistan. Given the sensitivity of wheat crop to heat-stress, by 2030 the anticipated decline in wheat production will affect the rural poor and marginal households across Pakistan, who will be forced to cope with the situation and will incentivise the rural poor to out-migrate

Migration futures in Asia and Africa : economic opportunities and distributional effects : the case of Pakistan

Declining agricultural yields and diminishing livelihood prospects due to climate change may motivate people to move households in search of better opportunities. This study applies two types of analyses: (i) a livelihood resilience approach: by constructing a resilience index for migrant and non-migrant households, and (ii) a case study approach for each study site, towards better understanding of factors that drive out-migration from rural areas; the social impacts of male out-migration on left-behind families; and the profile of current and potential migrants among households. This report is part of a long-term research agenda that guides Pathways to Resilience in Semi-arid Economies (PRISE).UK Government’s Department for International Development (DfID)International Development Research Centre (IDRC

What defines livelihood vulnerability in rural semi‑arid areas? : evidence from Pakistan

In view of the enhanced vulnerability of semi-arid regions to climate change (IPCC AR5 Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change) this paper attempts to identify the key determinants of vulnerability in three semi-arid districts of Pakistan using an indicator-based approach. Semi-arid lands in Pakistan predominantly feature irrigated agriculture. Results of IPCC–LVI show varying levels of vulnerability experienced by farmers in the three study sites. This paper uses the IPCC-Livelihood Vulnerability Index for developing site-specific vulnerability scores that portray the unique aspects that determine districts’ vulnerability to climate change such as water supply, access to information, rural poverty, health, education and genderUK's Department for International Development (DFID

Exploring the relationship between internal migration and wellbeing: the case of rural Punjab, Pakistan

This thesis aims to explore the relationship between internal migration and well-being in rural Pakistan. In doing so, I first investigate the relationships between migration and well-being at the household level among four rural household socio-economic categories i.e., large landholding, small landholding, landless farm labour, and non-farm rural households. Later, I extend my investigations into the gendered and generational dynamics of intra-household relations to understand the meanings and aspirations of well-being in relation to migration and how power hierarchy based on gender, social status and economic position shape migration and well-being outcomes. Conceptually, I draw on the three-dimensional (3-D) well-being framework which includes objective, subjective and relational aspects of well-being. Through questionnaire-based field survey of 331 households and 53 semi-structured interviews with individual members of the rural households, I investigate migration and well-being relationships and outcomes through a mixed method approach. Based on my study findings, I argue that the well-being meanings and aspirations of individual household members are situated within particular intersecting household hierarchies, which themselves are located in a similarly hierarchically structured rural society. To counter these challenges, I argued that three pathways stood out as the most important: education, religion, and migration. I contribute to the knowledge by exploring how people’s desire for quality education for their children or their narratives about cities as ii symbols of modernity for family growth and knowledge, reflect aspirations that extend beyond the objective and subjective meanings of well-being. Moreover, I argue that religious disposition in rural households shapes different meanings of well-being, providing a source of hope and peace, which in turn encourages them to work hard and have patience for future economic opportunities and earnings, particularly among landless and non-farm households. Moreover, I argue that religiosity and migration reinforce each other, i.e., religiosity among elders and migration desire in young men, led them to encourage and follow their aspirations. In this regard, I argue that rural society in Pakistan showed more social cohesion, while living within a highly polarised hierarchal rural society. Furthermore, I contribute to the knowledge that digital connectivity and remittances transfer through online platforms has shaped intra-household power relationships in rural Pakistan. This has provided some space for migrant wives and other women in the household to define their own life choices and better bargain while living in the extended families. This also brings incremental changes for rural women to contribute to household decision-making process, but also migrant wives developed digital connectivity with migrant husband for their mobility, childcare and financial requirements

Road to climate resilience : migration as an adaptation strategy

The findings of this research call for better management of the migration process, especially with regards to internal migration. For Pakistan, climate change is a reality that impacts lives and livelihoods adversely. Pakistani authorities have not yet recognized planned migration as an adaptation strategy, unlike other countries such as Bangladesh and Kenya that have integrated internal migration into their adaptation planning. This policy brief advocates for viewing rural to urban migration positively, as a livelihood resilience-enhancing strategy, rather than as a detriment to development.UK Government’s Department for International Development (DfID)International Development Research Centre (IDRC

Research for climate-resilient futures

The development deficit in Pakistan’s rural semi-arid areas, paralleled by higher investments in urban centres, together lure potential migrants from rural areas to urban settlements. Rural poverty in Pakistan is widespread but more pronounced in arid and semi-arid zones. Study findings indicate that climate change acts in combination with many other socioeconomic determinants of migration. Migratory decisions may be taken to escape from losses in rural incomes, which are variably intensified by climatic stress. The paper analyzes climate-induced internal migration in a developing country that is largely semi-arid and faces development challenges of urbanisation, rural poverty, and associated agricultural decline.UK Government's Dept for International Development (DfID

Climate-induced displacement and migration in Pakistan : insights from Muzaffargarh and Tharparkar districts

PUBLISHED BY: Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) Climate Action Network South Asia (CANSA

Rural livelihood vulnerability in semi-arid Pakistan : scope of migration as an adaptation strategy

Results of the country study show that D. G. Khan is the district most vulnerable to climate change impacts, followed by Mardan, with Faisalabad the least vulnerable of the three districts. Migration is a common adaptation response to climate impacts, yet it varies from one region to another. A lack of adaptive capacity plays an important role in determining the overall vulnerability of households. Based on findings of the study, recommendations aim at improving resilience of the agricultural sector due to climate change impacts, facilitating diversification of rural livelihoods through rural development, and creating policy that includes planned rural outmigration.UK Government’s Department for International Development (DfID)International Development Research Centre (IDRC