Advancing research for seamless Earth system prediction

Whether on an urban or planetary scale, covering time scales of a few minutes or a few decades, the societal need for more accurate weather, climate, water, and environmental information has led to a more seamless thinking across disciplines and communities. This challenge, at the intersection of scientific research and society’s need, is among the most important scientific and technological challenges of our time. The “Science Summit on Seamless Research for Weather, Climate, Water, and Environment” organized by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 2017, has brought together researchers from a variety of institutions for a cross-disciplinary exchange of knowledge and ideas relating to seamless Earth system science. The outcomes of the Science Summit, and the interactions it sparked, highlight the benefit of a seamless Earth system science approach. Such an approach has the potential to break down artificial barriers that may exist due to different observing systems, models, time and space scales, and compartments of the Earth system. In this context, the main future challenges for research infrastructures have been identified. A value cycle approach has been proposed to guide innovation in seamless Earth system prediction. The engagement of researchers, users, and stakeholders will be crucial for the successful development of a seamless Earth system science that meets the needs of society

CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON WIDE ASPECT OF HUMAN LIFE ABD STRATEGY TO COPE WITH IT

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Reviewing global development of multi-hazard early warning system with the perspective of its development in Indonesia

Never before a catastrophe brought an influence of the world’s attention like the Indian Ocean Tsunami in 2004 (IOT04). Before IOT04, states of the development of Early Warning System technology (EWS) was not as advanced and progressive as it is today. Together with the unavoidable impacts of climate change, disasters - both geologically and hydro-meteorological - are increasingly becoming the mainstream of global concern. Likewise, it’s EWS technology. This paper reviews the global development of EWS technologies, both related with geologically and hydro-meteorologically: before IOT04, current, and future development vision. The discussion of UN Agencies in the series of endeavor undertaken to embody Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2030 leads to a vision of the future development of EWS technology. Three factors become the primary drivers of EWS progress, among others, the growing awareness of the community that alter the form of a requirement of early warning information, the state of development of information technology, and observational instrumentation. The perspective of its application in Indonesia is also discussed

HIGH WAVE AND COASTAL INUNDATION IN SOUTH OF JAVA AND WEST OF SUMATERA (CASE STUDIES ON 7-10 JUNE 2016)

The high wave and spring tide occurred on June 7 to 10, 2016 had led to storm tide and coastal inundation at a number of coastal areas in south of Java and west of Sumatera, this incident caused substantial losses to coastal communities. The aim of this study is to understand the cause of storm tide, so it can be serve as a strategic contribution to assess, evaluate and mitigate the impact. The output of Wavewatch-III (WW3) model and Aviso Altimetry indicates the occurrence high wave in Indian Ocean reach more than 6 meters, this wave triggered by high wind speed around the Mascarene high event in Western Australia. Further analysis based on the output resulted by WW3 showed that the extreme wave in west Sumatera and south of Java (7-10 June, 2016) was dominated by swell waves generated by Mascarene High superposed with the highest diurnal tide as well as sea surface height anomaly, triggers the storm tide that consequentially costed more damaging impact in the south of Java and west of Sumatera. Gelombang tinggi dan pasang air laut yang terjadi pada tanggal 7 -10 Juni 2016 menyebabkan sejumlah wilayah pesisir di selatan Jawa dan Barat Sumatera mengalami gelombang pasang dan banjir rob, yang mengakibatkan kerugian cukup besar bagi masyarakat pesisir. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui penyebab terjadinya gelombang pasang tersebut, sehingga dapat bermanfaat sebagai evaluasi dan mitigasi kedepan. Data luaran model Wavewatch-III (WW3) dan Aviso-Satellite altimetry menunjukkan adanya gelombang tinggi lebih dari 6 meter di Samudera Hindia yang dipicu oleh angin kencang di sekitar wilayah kejadian Mascarene High di sebelah barat Australia. Analisis lebih lanjut berdasarkan output yang dihasilkan oleh WW3 menunjukkan bahwa gelombang ekstrim di selatan Jawa dan barat Sumatera (tanggal 7 – 10 Juni 2016) lebih didominasi oleh swell yang dihasilkan oleh kejadian Mascarene High. Terjadinya swell ini bersuperposisi dengan pasang tertinggi dan anomali tinggi muka laut, sehingga mengakibtkan terjadinya gelombang pasang dan banjir rob yang cukup merusak di sejumlah pesisir selatan Jawa dan barat Sumatera

Contribution of Weather Modification Technology for Forest and Peatland Fire Mitigation in Riau Province

Peat and forest fire have become an annual disaster and one of which is due to low rainfall. The highest insecurity of forest and peatland fires thus occurs in the dry season, where rainfall is very low, and the intensity of the sun is high. The smoke and carbon emitted result in rising air temperatures and cause global warming. Mitigation and control measures before they happen are necessary. Weather Modification Technology (WMT) serves as one of the technological solutions to control forest fires by increasing rainfall in potentially affected locations. This study aims at examining the level of effectiveness of WMT performance in mitigating forest fires in Riau Province conducted in 2020 measured by rainfall intensity, hotspots decreased, and land water level increased. We used descriptive and inferential statistical approaches using Groundwater Level (GwL) measured data as the parameter for forest and land fire mitigation. The flammable peatland indicator is when the water level is lower than 40 cm below the surface of the peatland. In addition, we also utilized rainfall, surface peat water level, and hotspots. The study was conducted in Riau Province from July 24 – October 31, 2020. The results showed that the operation of WMT increased rainfall by 19.4% compared to the historical average in the same period. Rain triggered by WMT contributed to maintaining zero hotspots with a confidence level of > 80%. The regression analysis of GwL to rainfall (RF) as depicted by Gwl = - 0.66 + 0.001 RF shows a positive correlation between the two. It thus confirms that WMT can be used as a technology to mitigate forest and land fire disasters

Strengthening multi-hazards early warning system in the pacific through BMKG-UNESCAP collaboration pilot projects

On the period of September to December 2017, three pilot projects were implemented in Tonga, Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands aiming to strengthen the multi-hazards early warning system in the respective countries through close collaboration between the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) and United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP). Main activities during the implementation phase were tailored based on gap analysis and risk assessments conducted beforehand. Thus, installation of high-resolution numerical weather, ocean wave, and climate prediction and forecasting tools were chosen to fill in the assessed gaps. These activities were incorporated with capacity building activities and high-level meetings with related stakeholders in disaster risk management using the concept of Fast-Leveraging-Easy-Economical-Sustain (FLEES). All three pilot projects had successfully proven to achieve their objectives by improving the capacities of National Meteorological Services in those three countries to produce multi-hazards early warning in higher resolution at a regional scale for disaster management in their respective countries

PY-Ionoquake: Sistem Deteksi Anomali Total Electron Content (TEC) Untuk Studi Prekursor Gempa Bumi PY-Ionoquake: Total Electron Content (TEC) Anomaly Detection System For Earthquake Precursor Study

. Keberadaan sistem yang otomatis menghitung data Total Electron Content (TEC), menganalisis dan menampilkan hasilnya menjadi target yang diharapkan dalam penelitian prekursor gempa bumi. Makalah ini membahas tentang Py-Ionoquake, sistem deteksi anomali TEC berbasis python untuk studi prekursor gempa bumi. Py-Ionoquake merupakan pengembangan dari IonoQuake versi 1.0. Py-IonoQuake dirancang untuk akuisi dan analisis korelasi data TEC Global Ionosphere Map (GIM) secara otomatis. Output Py-IonoQuake adalah rasio simpangan koefisien korelasi dengan deviasi standarnya (skk/dskk) serta variasi spasial skk/dskk. Anomali TEC ditentukan apabila nilai skk/dskk kurang dari -1. PyIonoQuake juga menampilkan data indeks Dst sebagai bahan pertimbangan dalam menentukan anomali TEC yang terjadi. Hasil pengujian Py-IonoQuake terhadap beberapa kasus gempa bumi menunjukkan kemunculan anomali TEC yang dapat dikategorikan sebagai prekursor gempa bumi. Pengujian Py-IonoQuake menunjukkan kinerja yang lebih stabil baik dalam mode auto maupun offlineHlm.173-18

Strengthening multi-hazards early warning system in the pacific through BMKG-UNESCAP collaboration pilot projects

On the period of September to December 2017, three pilot projects were implemented in Tonga, Papua New Guinea, and Solomon Islands aiming to strengthen the multi-hazards early warning system in the respective countries through close collaboration between the Indonesian Agency for Meteorology Climatology and Geophysics (BMKG) and United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP). Main activities during the implementation phase were tailored based on gap analysis and risk assessments conducted beforehand. Thus, installation of high-resolution numerical weather, ocean wave, and climate prediction and forecasting tools were chosen to fill in the assessed gaps. These activities were incorporated with capacity building activities and high-level meetings with related stakeholders in disaster risk management using the concept of Fast-Leveraging-Easy-Economical-Sustain (FLEES). All three pilot projects had successfully proven to achieve their objectives by improving the capacities of National Meteorological Services in those three countries to produce multi-hazards early warning in higher resolution at a regional scale for disaster management in their respective countries