Dynamic Allocation and Pricing in Incomplete Markets: A Survey

This paper surveys the recent development of empirical and theoretical researches on incomplete markets, pointing out the following aspects. First, the theoretical study in this field is motivated by empirical findings of both asset pricing anomalies and heterogeneous behavior among economic agents. Second, incomplete insurance combined with either borrowing constraints or transaction costs offers predictions consistent with empirical findings. In addition, the failure of insuring persistent or permanent shocks alone yields empirically reasonable predictions. Third, recent theoretical research has made attempts to endogenize incomplete insurance from first principles. Fourth, incomplete markets may make aggregate shocks distributed disproportionately among agents, thereby having a significant impact on dynamic allocation and pricing. Finally the theoretical research into incomplete markets triggers a reassessment of welfare implications as to business cycles, economic growth, and financial integration.

The context effect in the choice of earthquake insurance contracts in Japan

In this paper, we investigate the context effect in the choice of public and private earthquake insurance contracts using data from a questionnaire survey completed by an identical set of approximately 2,000 households in 2008 and again in 2009. According to the 2008 survey, the public earthquake insurance (PEI) was not popular among those who felt that the premiums were too high. On the other hand, the 2009 survey demonstrates that the choice of earthquake insurance changed substantially when a hypothetical private earthquake insurance contract, much more expensive than the PEI, was added to a choice menu. In particular, those who had initially felt that PEI was too expensive tended to find it less expensive relative to private insurance, and worth purchasing. A crucial advantage of the above choice architecture is that including additional options helps private insurance companies to develop market activities.earthquake insurance, public insurance, context effects

On Empirical Implications of Highly Interest-Elastic Money Demand : A Note

Based on a standard model of money demand, this paper first shows that a relationship between money supply and prices may be substantially weakened when money demand is highly interest-elastic, and then presents empirical evidence for this implication using the Japanese money market data for the sample period, 1985-1999.money demand, zero interest-rate policy, cointegration

Precautionary Motives versus Waiting Options: Evidence from Aggregate Household Saving in Japan

Exploiting theoretical implications for saving motives under uncertainty proposed by Epstein (1980), this paper empirically examines which motive is more dominant in aggregate household savings in Japan, precautionary savings or savings as waiting options. The former motive is driven by the magnitude of risks, while the latter is promoted by the subsequent resolution of uncertainty. Empirical results indicate that saving behavior since the 1980s is more consistent with precautionary savings; however, estimation results from the behavior during the 1990s offer some evidence in favor of savings as waiting options.

A Portfolio Theory of International Capital Flows

This paper constructs a model in which the currency composition of national portfolios is an essential element in facilitating capital ‡ows between countries. In a two country environment, each country chooses optimal nominal bond portfolios in face of real and nominal risk.Current account deficits are financed by increases in domestic currency debt, but balanced by increases in foreign currency credit. This is combined with an evolution of risk-premiums such that the rate of return on the debtor country’s gross liabilities is lower than the return on its gross assets. This ensures stability of the world wealth distribution.

On the Consumption Insurance Effects of Long-term Care Insurance in Japan: Evidence from Micro-level Household Data

Using micro-level household data in the 2001 Comprehensive Survey of the Living Conditions of the People on Health and Welfare compiled by the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, this paper examines how having a household member in need of long-term nursing care can result in welfare losses measured in terms of consumption. In so doing, this study evaluates the role of the public long-term care insurance scheme implemented in Japan in April 2000. The results indicate that when households include a disabled family member, household consumption net of long-term care costs do not decrease as much as before the introduction of long-term care insurance. Further, when compared with the surveys conducted in 1998, theadverse effects on consumption net of long-term care costs have become much weaker. These findings suggest that the introduction of social insurance in 2000 helped Japanese households to reduce the welfare losses associated with a disabled family member.social insurance, consumption insurance, long-term care insurance