Afghanistan: The Status of the Shi'ite Hazara Minority

The predominantly Shi'ite Hazara minority in Afghanistan has historically been a deprived and poorly treated cluster. During the theocratic rule of the Taliban (1996-2001), they were subjected to an unprecedented degree of violence and persecution. However, since the US-led NATO intervention a decade ago their situation has improved substantially. They have succeeded in securing a sizable share in the political and economic life of Afghanistan in the context of the growth of political pluralism and civil society. This is an important outcome of the international involvement in post-Taliban Afghanistan, despite all the problems and uncertainties that the country continues to face. Even if Afghanistan's national circumstances change dramatically in the wake of troop withdrawal by the USA and its allies by the end of 2014, the Hazaras are now well positioned to be able to defend their rights and interests, and to avoid re-living their bitter historical experiences

Iran and Saudi Arabia: Proliferation Pressures

This item was commisioned by ANU College of Asia & the Pacifi

The Afghanistan conflict: Gorbachev's options

The Afghanistan conflict has become a lingering major crisis in world politics. The Soviet invasion of the country in late December 1979 marked the first Soviet military action since World War Two against any state outside the Warsaw Pact zone. The invastion has had far reaching consequences not only for the Soviet Union's foreign relations, but also for regional security and international order. Since the Soviets have thus far failed to pacify the Afghan people and make their military presence in Afghanistan, in support of a totally incompetent and unpopular communist regime, acceptable to the world community, the younger Soviet leadership under Mikhail Gorbachev has lately found it expedient to opt for a political solution to the Afghan problem. Gorbachev's efforts in this respect, however, have thus far produced few tangible results. Dr Saikal examines the roots of this conflict and the possible motives behind the original Soviet decision to invade Afghanistan. He also evaluates the Soviet strategy for pacifying the country and the failure of this strategy in the context of the growth of the Afghan resistance and international support for it. Further, he looks at changes in Soviet strategy under Gorbachev, with a view to identifying what type of political solution the Gorbachev leadership has unsuccessfully so far sought, and what options are available to it in the event that it is genuinely interested in a solution which would enable the Soviets to disentangle themselves from this increasingly costly conflict

The emergence of a state from dependence to regional power : the case of Iran, 1953-1979

This thesis examines the rule of Mohammed RezaShah Pahlavi of Iran (1953-1979) in the context of his regime's 'dependence' on the United States in the 1950s for its survival, and his attempts, in the 1970s, to transform Iran into a major pro-Western regional power with aspirations to eventual world power status. In this, it critically reviews both the domestic and foreign policy objectives and behaviour of the Shah. It basically argues that despite all his achievements, the Shah's goals and policies were full of inherent contradictions and weaknesses. They were not responsive to the needs of Iran and failed to achieve even their own objectives. In fact, they unleashed the very trends and developments which ultimately led the Iranian people to launch the 1978 mass movements against the Shah's rule, forcing him from the throne on the grounds that he was the 'enemy' of Iran and 'puppet' of the United States

War with Iraq?

On 11 September 2001 terrorists from the amorphous transnational Al Qaeda network killed thousands of Americans and other nationals by flying planes into New York's World Trade Center, the Pentagon in Washington, and a field in Pennsylvania. A year later the United States is preparing to launch a war against the state of Iraq, emphasising the grave and imminent danger posed by Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, but animated also by a long-standing goal of 'regime change'. What explains this 'statising' of the so-called 'war against terrorism'? What risks does it pose for regional and world order? This Keynote brings together some of Australia's leading thinkers and commentators on American foreign policy, the politics of the Middle East, strategic and defence issues, and global governance to reflect on the multiple issues raised by the prospect of war with Iraq

Afghanistan after the Loyal Jirga

Dramatic change came to Afghanistan not because the world community suddenly decided that the Afghans were a people worth saving from the regime that was tormenting them, but because the Taliban's allies finally engaged in activities that directly harme

'Iran and the Changing Regional Strategic Environment'

In the midst of the highly volatile and conflict-ridden region of greater West Asia, stretching from Pakistan to Lebanon, the only country that can claim to have functioned as a relatively stable and secure constituent state is the oil-rich but heavily sanctioned Islamic Republic of Iran. Iran's economic and regional situation, together with its unique-and some might argue odd-Islamic system of governance, has confronted the country with serious challenges on a scale that few other states have experienced. Yet, Iran has managed to weather these challenges and has elevated its position to that of a critical regional player. As such, it has defied earlier doomsday predictions by some scholars and observers, who expressed skepticism about the longevity of its Islamic government that emerged under the political and religious leadership of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in the wake of the Iranian Revolution in January 1979. Why has the Islamic Republic ofIran proved to be so resilient, and what direction is it likely to take for the foreseeable future