Differences in Interest Rate Policy at the ECB and the Fed: An Investigation with a Medium-Scale DSGE Model.

Using two estimated models for the euro area and the United States, this paper investigates whether the observed difference in the amplitude of the interest rate cycle since 1999 in both areas is due to differences in the estimated monetary policy reaction function, differences in the structure of the economy or differences in the size and nature of the shocks hitting both economies. The paper concludes that differences in the type, size and persistence of shocks in both areas can largely explain the different interest rate setting.Policy activism ; DSGE model ; Interest rates ; Macroeconomic shocks.

Testing heterogeneity within the euro area.

This note estimates several constrained versions of an optimization-based multi-country model to test the sources of heterogeneity within the euro area. We show that the main source is the asymmetry of shocks affecting the economies and that the heterogeneity of behaviors does not seem to be of empirical relevance for the euro area.Euro area ; Heterogeneity ; Bayesian econometrics ; Multi-country model.

Incorporating Labour Market Frictions into an Optimising-Based Monetary Policy Model

This paper examines the effects of introducing a non Walrasian labour market into the "New Neoclassical Synthesis'' framework. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is formulated, solved, and calibrated in order to evaluate its ability to replicate the main features of the Euro area economy. This framework allows us to study the effects of labour market rigidities, nominal rigidities, and other frictions to give account of the impact of monetary policy, technology, public spending, and preference shocks. Our simulations show that: (i) real rigidities complement but do not supplant nominal rigidities, (ii) the Beveridge and Phillips relations are reproduced, (iii) hours worked are too sensitive an adjustment variable, and (iv) the real wage dynamics is still procyclical.DSGE models ; Nominal rigidities ; Real rigidities ; Labour market ; Endogenous persistence ; Euro area

Minimum Distance Estimation and Testing of DSGE Models from Structural VARs

The aim of this paper is to complement the MDE--SVAR approach when the weighting matrix is not optimal. In empirical studies, this choice is motivated by stochastic singularity or collinearity problems associated with the covariance matrix of Impulse Response Functions. Consequently, the asymptotic distribution cannot be used to test the economic model's fit. To circumvent this difficulty, we propose a simple simulation method to construct critical values for the test statistics. An empirical application with US data illustrates the proposed method.MDE, SVAR, DSGE models.

On the Welfare Costs of Misspecified Monetary Policy Objectives

This paper quantifies the effects on welfare of misspecified monetary policy objectives in a stylized DSGE model. We show that using inappropriate objectives generates relatively large welfare costs. When expressed in terms of ‘consumption equivalent’ units, these costs correspond to permanent decreases in steady-state consumption of up to two percent. The latter are generated by both the inappropriate choice of weights and the omission of variables. In particular, it is costly to assume an interest-rate smoothing incentive for central bankers when it is not socially optimal to do so. Finally, a parameter uncertainty decomposition indicates that uncertainty about the properties of markup shocks gives rise to the largest welfare costs.Welfare ; Monetary policy objectives ; DSGE model ; Bayesian econometrics.

Partial Indexation, Trend Inflation, and the Hybrid Phillips Curve

This paper proposes a full description of the Calvo price-setting model based on partial prices indexation and studies the interaction between partial indexation and trend inflation. We show that using a hybrid version of the Phillips curve partly decreases the risks of overestimate due to the omission of trend inflation. We also provide new evidence on the fit of the hybrid Phillips curve for the Euro area and the United States over the period 1970-2002. The GMM-West estimates suggest that (i) a full indexation scheme is not data consistent whereas a partial indexation scheme allows a good fit and (ii) forgetting trend inflation induces overestimating by approximately 3-4 percent of the probability to not change the price, for reasonable values of trend inflation.Phillips curve ; Inflation inertia ; Trend inflation ; Degree of indexation

Optimal Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Cross-country Heterogeneity.

This paper investigates the implications of cross-country heterogeneity within the euro area for the design of optimal monetary policy. We build an optimizing-based multi-country model (MCM) describing the euro area in which differences between structural parameters across countries are allowed. Using Bayesian techniques, we estimate the MCM and its area-wide counterpart (AWM). We then question which model is the most appropriate for monetary policy purposes. Several results emerge. First, using an AWM induces relatively large and significant welfare losses. Second, this is not the use of a rule based on aggregated variables that is costly in terms of welfare, but rather the use of a sub-optimal forecasting model. Third, allowing for habit on consumption has important implications for the dynamics of models but taking into account difference in price indexation has more drastic effects on welfare losses.Euro area ; Heterogeneity ; Optimal monetary policy ; Bayesian econometrics.

La TVA sociale : bonne ou mauvaise idée ?

The quantitative and dynamic consequence of a social VAT reform, i.e. a fiscal reform consisting in substituting VAT for social contributions, is assessed using two general equilibrium models. The first one is a Walrasian model with no other frictions than distortionary taxation of labor and capital incomes and consumption. The second one introduces in addition matching frictions in the labor market. Two alternative financing schemes are considered for the practical details of implementing the social VAT. In all cases, the fiscal reform turns out to generate a small, positive long--run effect on aggregate variables and yields a modest welfare gain. In the no--friction model, this welfare gain is substantially reduced when the reform is pre--announced six quarters prior to implementation. The effect of such a pre-announced reform are smaller when labor market frictions are taken into account.social VAT, DGE, pre-announced fiscal reform.

Comportement du banquier central en environnement incertain

Several recent papers are devoted to the examination of the central banker's behaviour in an uncertain economic environment. This paper proposes, from a central banker's point of view, a synthesis of the main sources of uncertainty as well as an illustration of their effects within an analytical framework. In particular, it shows that depending on the type of uncertainty and the choice of the selected loss function, the recommendations for monetary policy can be noticeably different. Retaining an ad hoc loss function - discretionary choice - in place of an endogenous loss function - choice consistent with the structural parameters - can involve considerable welfare losses.Monetary policy , Uncertainty , Macroeconomic Model.

Chocs d’Offre et Optimalité de la Politique Monétaire dans la Zone Euro

This article assesses monetary policy's performances in the Euro zone in the face of supply shocks. We determine the responses of output, inflation, labor share and the nominal interest rate to a supply shock as identified through a structural VAR model. We then develop a DSGE model with nominal rigidities subject to the optimal monetary policy. The model is estimated and tested on the basis of its ability to reproduce the responses drawn from the VAR model. Our results suggest that assuming optimal monetary policy allows for a satisfying fit to the data.Supply shocks ; SVAR ; Optimal Monetary Policy.