The Economic Analysis of the Oil Revenues Increase Impact on Income Distribution with a BVAR Approach: Case Study of Iran

The performance of nation’s economy in terms of realization of social justice can be addressed by studying the variation of quantitative indexes such as income distribution, poverty and social welfare. Several studies have been accomplished investigating the role of oil revenues in economic development of oil exporting countries. However the issue of income distribution and the process of the effect of oil revenues on it haven’t been adequately surveyed. There are several theories among the development economists saying the revenues of mineral industries such as oil and gas, cause the intensification of inequality in the economy. Using Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) approach and considering the variables of Gini index, inflation, GDP per capita without oil, share of government expenditure to GDP, proportion of consuming expenditure to construction expenditure of government, and the real per capita oil revenues, we addressed the relationship between oil revenues and the income distribution in Iran in the period of 1973-2010. Six different prior densities such as Minnesota and SSVS have been used to estimate the model coefficients and the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition have been computed. The results show that the increase of oil revenues has tended to increase of inequality in Iran. In addition, the increase of inflation, government expenditure, and the proportion of consuming expenditure to construction expenditure increase the inequality. But the increase of GDP per capita decreases the inequality

Comparing Distortionary Effects of Iran Petroleum Contracts (IPC) and Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) Using Stochastic Dynamic Programming Model: The Case of South Azadegan field

This paper analyzes and compares the behavioral responses of the operator to the fiscal regime of the two types of contracts, Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) and Production Sharing Contracts (PSC) with using the dynamic optimization approach (dynamic programming method). This paper aims to numerically compute the amount of distortions caused by the petroleum contracts, which creates some distortion in the investor's decision regarding to the neutral case that means there is no contractual restrictions including government share of resource rent, tax, extraction timing, cost recovery limit and so on. The focal point of this paper is the application of the stochastic dynamic programming for a real oil field in order to achieve the numerical results and using the deadweight loss (DWL) as an actual measure for assessment of the distortion of the contract regarding the first best case (neutral path). Accordingly, with using the information of the South Azadegan field, the results show that both fiscal terms of IPC and PSC have distortionary effects and the DWL of the IPC is more than that of PSC. For instance, in the reference scenario and reference oil prices the DWL of IPC and PSC are 22/22% and 21/14% respectively

Investigating the Effects of Pricing Mechanism of Rich Gas on the Take of the Parties in the Development Contract of Phase 11 of South Pars

The contract for the development of phase 11 of South Pars has been signed by a consortium of Total in France with a share of (51%), CNPC in China (30%), and Petropars Iran (19.9%) in July 2017. By using a comprehensive and accurate model designed in this research, all the aspects of the mentioned project, including technical issues, production profile, gas price, project costs, and project revenues were evaluated financially and economically with the consideration of the fiscal and economic components of the development contract in the dynamic manner. Finally, regarding the results, executive suggestions were stated in order to improve the fiscal regime of the contract. According to the findings, the fiscal regime of the contract is so-called regressive and the revenue increase or decrease has no effect on the contractor’s profitability. The most significant drawback of the contract is the pricing mechanism of the produced gas, causing a false price followed by an overestimate of the project’s profit and underestimate of the contractor's take and creating an implicit obligation for repaying the contractor’s dues from their revenues of other hydrocarbon fields of the country in the case of petroleum and gas condensate price drop. The results show that during rich gas pricing, in the case of realistic pricing of the produced gas, the foreign contractor's discounted take would increase from 6% to 27%, and on the opposite side, the government's take would decrease from 92% to 67%

Designing Model of Associated Petroleum Gas Pricing with Emphasis on sale of Gas to NGL Units: Case Study of Feed Pricing of NGL-3200

The survey of Associated Petroleum Gas (APG) flaring illustrate that about 40 million cubic meter of APG have flared in oil operating regions at 1395 year. High volume of Associated Petroleum Gas (APG) flaring and problem of Notional Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) for execution of APG gathering plans has led to do policies such as auction of APG and transfer of NGL units to private sector by this company. Requisite for implementation of this policies that means present private sector in APG gathering plans is creation of given set up and framework in relations between NIOC and private sector. One of the cases that has important role in APG plans, is determined APG Pricing Model. So in this paper, meanwhile explained gas pricing models, a model was suggested for APG pricing. The main results of this study is pricing model for APG assuming sale to NGL unit such as NGL-3200 in which this model is based on fundamental principles such as type of use APG, gas quality, environmental issues, thermal value of gas and liquid content. Moreover, employing this model for feed pricing of NGL-3200 unit shows that minimum and maximum of APG price for this unit 5 and 8.2 cent per cubic meters Respectively. Also, sensitivity analysis presents that change of utilization rate, price of product from APG processing and capital cost can be effective on APG pric