Evaluation and Prediction of Land-Use Changes using the CA_Markov Model

AbstractThe purpose of this study was to model and predict temporal and spatial patterns of land-use change in the Zayandehrud basin. In this research, the CA-Markov prediction model was used to simulate and predict land-use change. First, the land-use changes from 1996 to 2018 were studied and then the future changes for 2030 and 2050 were simulated. Afterward, the future land-use scenarios were designed. The model was validated by comparing the simulated map of 2018 with the real map, and the kappa coefficient of 94 % was utilized to evaluate the model. Based on the results, the Built-up land-use was altered from 13016 hectares in 1996 to 154194 hectares in 2050. This outcome necessitates the management of the future development of the city. Furthermore, the amount of agricultural land was varied from 177067 hectares in 1996 to 40,000 hectares in 2050. Among all the changes, agricultural lands attracted the most attention and concerns. The results indicated the land-use changes in the form of urban areas and reducing area of agricultural lands. Such alterations were taken place in two distinct stages: urban lands have been developing since 2013, with a direct impact on the reduction of vegetation due to the conversion of agricultural lands into other land-uses. The dynamic trend of changes has also been confirmed and intensified since 1996. In 2018, a significant area of agricultural lands was converted into urban and industrial areas. In addition, the agricultural and orchard lands were 74057 hectares in 2018 and can be reduced to 40,000 hectares by 2050. It revealed 34057 hectares lost as compared to the agricultural and orchard lands in 2018. The present study depicts that the expansion of urban and industrial activities and reducing the level of agricultural land in the region requires more attention and care in land management. Extended Abstract:Introduction: Land use/Land cover (LULC) change is one of the main issues of sustainable development. To provide a rational science for regional planning decisions and sustainable development, land use pattern prediction models based on past preliminary information can be used to construct future scenarios of land-use changes. Modeling and predicting land use changes provide an interesting perspective for applications in planning units such as river basins and make it an effective tool for analyzing the causal dynamics of the future landscape under different scenarios. Land-use models are considered a powerful tool for understanding the spatio-temporal pattern of land-use changes, such as the Markov chain, cellular automation, and hybrid models based on these methods, which are widely used to simulate the spatial and temporal dimensions of land use. In the present study, land use changes prediction was performed using a combined model of cellular automation and the Markov chain (CA-Markov) to simulate temporal and spatial land-use patterns. The present study tries to predict land-use changes in the Zayandehrood river basin. The Zayandehrud basin is currently facing major environmental problems (such as water resources scarcity, population growth, urban development, and agricultural land degradation). Therefore, it is essential to evaluate land-use changes for this sensitive basin. In particular, the objectives of the research include two stages: 1) patial modeling of land-use change, and 2) predicting spatio-temporal patterns of land-use changes in the Zayandehrud river basin.Therefore, in the present research, land-use changes from 1996 to 2018 were investigated and future changes for 2030 and 2050 were simulated. Methodology: In this research, land-use changes modeling was performed in three time periods 1996 to 2013 (17-year period), 2013 to 2018 (5-year period), and 2018 to 2030 and 2050. The purpose of modeling is to determine the capabilities of the Markov chain model and integrate it with cellular automation to detect land-use changes. The images were classified into 4 classes: agriculture and gardens, built-up (urban areas, airport, and road), industrial towns, and other land uses (abandoned lands and fallow, rangeland, water areas). Finally, land-use changes modeling was performed in the period 1996 to 2050 (54-year period). The steps of the research method are as follows:Step 1: Pre-processing of satellite images: Radiometric correction was applied to the images. Next, the images were processed using the FLAASH module in ENVI5.3 software to reduce atmospheric interference. Then, by synthesizing the name and wavelength of the bands, image storage, mosaic, and mask clipping, a preprocessed remote sensing image was generated. Finally, the preprocessed remote sensing image was obtained.Step 2: Processing satellite images: Types of land use images in the area in ENVI 5.3 were extracted using visual interpretation and supervised classification methods. Land use classification algorithms were used to estimate the three main land-use classes (agriculture, urban, and industrial development). The principal component analysis method was performed on the images and was identified agricultural by high resolution. Land use classification for 1996, 2013, and 2018 was done with a classification approach based on the decision tree. To classify the images, maximum likelihood methods, artificial neural networks, and support vector machines were used. The final classification was performed using decision tree analysis. Finally, prediction of land-use changes was performed on images by performing the CA_Markov analysis in TerrSet software.Step 3: Post-processing of satellite images: Using Google Earth and cross-tab analysis, TerrSet software evaluated the accuracy of classifying land-use thematic maps. Using the existing database, a validation process was performed to ensure the accuracy of the model in predicting land-use changes for the forecasted 2018 map. The accuracy of the simulated model of land-use change in 2018 was validated and then compared with the actual map of the same year. The validation process was performed by generating the kappa coefficient. Discussion: In this study, land-use changes in the Zayandehrood basin were identified and investigated. The results showed that land-use changes are in the form of urban development and reduction of agricultural land use. Such changes have occurred in two distinct stages. First, urban land expansion has prevailed since 2013, with a direct impact on declining vegetation as a result of the conversion of agricultural land to other land uses. The dynamic trend of changes has also been confirmed and intensified since 1996. Because in 2018, a significant area of agricultural lands was converted into urban and industrial areas. Future scenarios based on the CA-Markov model provide valuable information about future land use and land cover changes in the study area. This study can identify land-use changes in different periods and depict the increase or decrease of important land uses in the region. According to the study of Motlagh et al. (2020), land-use changes were studied based on three possible scenarios (i.e. the current trend of land use growth, conservation of agricultural lands, and urban development forecast). Future scenarios for 2030 and 2050 estimate that there will be a significant reduction in vegetation and agricultural lands and orchards and continued urban and industrial development in areas along the Zayandehrood basin. Expansion of the agricultural sector along with the conservation of natural resources is not only one of the most important challenges of sustainable development in the Zayandehrud basin but is also essential for future strategic land use plans. Compilation of instructions for sustainable agricultural development can be a way to strike a balance between nature conservation and economic development in the region. Conclusion: In summary, this study demonstrates how the proposed CA-Markov model is used to better simulate land use complex and dynamic changes over time. Of all the land-use changes, the most worrying is the situation in the region for agricultural lands. If the current trend of land use continues, we estimate that by 2050, its area will be halved, and such changes in the landscape will undoubtedly change the entire ecosystem of the basin, emphasizing that the negative effects on the vegetation of the basin have a direct impact on the economic sector of the region because maintaining the quality of the environment of the Zayandehrood river basin is essential for ecotourism. Therefore, the management and planning of the basin are highly recommended to preserve its unique ecosystem, as well as to protect the vegetation in the area. The methods and results of this study will be useful for policymakers and urban planners for precise planning of the region to be able to manage the city using farms and conserving water resources and urban infrastructure development planning for environmentally sustainable development. Keywords: Land-Use Changes, Cellular Automation, the Markov Chain, Zayandehrud River Basin. References- Asgarian, A., Soffianian, A., Pourmanafi, S., & Bagheri, M. (2018). Evaluating the spatial effectiveness of alternative urban growth scenarios inprotecting cropland resources: A case of mixed agricultural-urbanized landscape in central Iran. Journal of Sustainable Cities and Society, 43, 197-207.- Assaf, C., Adamsa, C., Ferreira, F. F., & Françac, H. (2021). 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Application of landscape metrics and object-oriented remote sensing to detect the spatial arrangement of agricultural land

This study aims to investigate crop selection and spatial patterns of agricultural fields in a drought-affected region in Isfahan Province, central Iran. Based on field surveys portraying growth stages of the main crops including wheat, alfalfa, vegetables and fruit trees, three Landsat 8 operational land imager (OLI) images were acquired on March 15 (L1), June 27 (L2) and October 1 (L3), 2015. After performing radiometric and atmospheric corrections, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) maps of the images were produced and introduced to the Multi-Resolution Segmentation algorithm to delineate agricultural fields. An NDVI-based decision algorithm was then developed to identify crops devoted to each field. Finally, a set of landscape metrics including Number of Patches (NP), mean patch size (MPS), mean shape index (MSI), perimeter-to-area ratio (PARA) and Euclidian Nearest Neighborhood Distance (ENN) was utilized to evaluate their respective spatial formation. The results showed that nearly 46% of fields are devoted to wheat indicating that the landscape has been dramatically shifted towards wheat monoculture farming. Moreover, the farmers’ inclination to grow crops in large fields (approximate area of 1 ha) with more regular geometric shapes are considered as an effective way of optimising water use efficiency in areas experiencing significant water shortage

A Statistical Comparison between Less and Common Applied Models to Estimate Geographical Distribution of Endangered Species (Felis margarita) in Central Iran

Species distribution in space is important in habitat conservation and biodiversity protection, so gaining knowledge about species range would be worthwhile to rescue endangered species and plan conservation policy. This study evaluates and compares the performance of an array of Species Distribution Models (SDMs), namely RF, SVM, MaxEnt, GLMNET, and MARS, in predicting rare sand cat distribution across a large unprotected sand dune area in central Iran. Due to absence of reliable data and difficulties in recording the species itself, the SDMs were challenged by limited data including 55 absence (background) and 40 presence points as well as nine climatic and geological parameters that influence on species distribution, including humidity, maximum, minimum and mean temperature, precipitation, amount of sunshine, ground water level, aspect, and DEM. Moreover, each model was replicated 20 times and the statistics including TSS, AUC, COR and Deviance were computed. Then, based on computed statistics, the model performances were evaluated by TUKEY and ANOVA. Finally, ensemble map was obtained by weighted approach using AUC. The results of this study showed that complex machine learning methods, like SVM, RF, and MaxEnt are more outperformed to predict the distribution of rare species

An integrative climate and land cover change detection unveils extensive range contraction in mountain newts

The global decline of amphibian populations, driven by anthropogenic activities, is a pressing conservation issue, with salamanders being of particular concern, as these species serve as ecological indicators vulnerable to environmental change. Mountain newts of the Neurergus genus, which are endemic to the Zagros Mountain chain from southeastern Turkey to northern Iraq and southwestern Iran, face a multitude of threats. Among these threats, climate change and land use alterations have been identified as major contributors to the decline of these species. Given the varying spatiotemporal scales at which these factors operate, in this study we aimed to assess the impacts of climate and land use/land cover (LULC) changes (LULCC) on the distribution of the Neurergus genus. We employed MaxEnt model to predict their habitat suitability under current climatic conditions. We projected the predicted model to the future, i.e., 2050, under two climate change scenarios. We then proceeded to map the LULC patterns of the identified suitable habitats for each species using Landsat satellite images, and conducted a hindcast of LULCC within these habitats for three time-slices 1988, 2005, and 2020. Finally, we evaluated the efficiency of current network of protected areas (PAs) and key biodiversity areas (KBAs) in Iran, Iraq, and Turkey to cover suitable habitats of the species. Our results revealed that climate changes would negatively influence all Neurergus species, with southern species in Iran and Iraq, i.e., N. derjugini, N. kaiseri, and N. crocatus exhibiting the greatest range loss. Conversely, LULC change detection indicated that northern species in Turkey, i.e., N. strauchii and N. barani, are more exposed to cropland developments and have experienced greatest habitat changes over the past 30 years. Ultimately, our findings underscore the insufficiency of extant conservation areas in protecting Neurergus habitats and urge the need for comprehensive conservation measures. We recommend promoting less strictly conserved areas, e.g., KBAs, implementing trans-boundary conservation plans, and designating new reserves to ensure long-term preservation of amphibians in the regions

Modeling Spatial Distribution of Carbon Sequestration, CO2 Absorption, and O2 Production in an Urban Area: Integrating Ground‐Based Data, Remote Sensing Technique, and GWR Model

Abstract The main purpose of this research is to model the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration, CO2 absorption, and oxygen production by trees within Isfahan city, Iran, in 2020. To quantify carbon sequestration, we accessed a sample group of trees with measured biophysical attributes. First, we calculated the biomass and carbon sequestration of a tree using the allometric and photosynthesis equations. Then, to model the spatial distribution of carbon sequestration, we used geographic weighted regression (GWR) method. In this model, the amount of calculated carbon sequestration was the dependent variable, whereas the difference between vegetation indexes of Excess Green Plant Index minus Excess Red Plant Index (ΔExGR) from the Worldview image was the independent variable. Subsequently, the spatial distribution map of CO2 absorption and oxygen production was generated. The total value of annual carbon sequestration, CO2 absorption, and O2 production was about 7704.22, 28274.502, and 20570.16 tons, respectively. The results showed that there was a strong correlation between the ΔExGR index of the canopy with calculated carbon. Integrating the ΔExGR index from a high‐resolution image with calculated carbon can contribute to developing a fast, accurate, and low‐cost method in estimating carbon sequestration and modeling its spatial distribution in urban areas. In conclusion, the results of this research can be implemented by land‐use planners to integrate urban ecosystem service concept (i.e., carbon sequestration) in planning process toward sustainability of the cities

Evaluating optimal sites for combined-cycle power plants using GIS: comparison of two aggregation methods in Iran

This study aims to use an integration of GIS and multi-criteria evaluation for combined-cycle power plant site selection and compares two aggregation methods for Iran. The information layers of the criteria are prepared in the GIS environment and then the layers standardised using fuzzy functions in IDRISI. All layers are combined using two conventional methods of fuzzy logic and weighted linear combination; from this information, the suitability maps were created. Results show that only 2.0% of the region under study is scored high-suitable using the fuzzy logic, while 21% of the area is considered as highly suitable when the weighted linear combination is used. Despite this significant difference, both approaches recommend the ideal place in the north and northwest of the study area. In conclusion, integrating GIS and multi-criteria evaluation is a comprehensive approach that improves and strengthens the suitability of site selection studies

A hierarchical approach of hybrid image classification for land use and land cover mapping

Remote sensing data analysis can provide thematic maps describing land-use and land-cover (LULC) in a short period. Using proper image classification method in an area, is important to overcome the possible limitations of satellite imageries for producing land-use and land-cover maps. In the present study, a hierarchical hybrid image classification method was used to produce LULC maps using Landsat Thematic mapper TM for the year of 1998 and operational land imager OLI for the year of 2016. Images were classified using the proposed hybrid image classification method, vegetation cover crown percentage map from normalized difference vegetation index, Fisher supervised classification and object-based image classification methods. Accuracy assessment results showed that the hybrid classification method produced maps with total accuracy up to 84 percent with kappa statistic value 0.81. Results of this study showed that the proposed classification method worked better with OLI sensor than with TM. Although OLI has a higher radiometric resolution than TM, the produced LULC map using TM is almost accurate like OLI, which is because of LULC definitions and image classification methods used

The Gavkhouni Wetland Dryness and Its Impact on Air Temperature Variability in the Eastern Part of the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran

The Gavkhouni wetland provides many environmental and economic benefits for the central region of Iran. In recent decades, it has completely dried up several times with substantial impacts on local ecosystems and climate. Remote sensing-based Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in combination with in-situ data were used to investigate the trend of the Gavkhouni wetland dryness and the associated impact on the variability of local air temperature. The results indicate that the wetland has increasingly experienced drier conditions since the year 2000. The wetland was almost completely dry in 2009, 2011, 2015 and 2017. In addition, the results show that Gavkhouni wetland dryness has a significant impact on local climate, increasing the mean seasonal air temperature by ~1.6 °C and ~1 °C in spring and summer, respectively. Overall, this study shows that remote sensing imagery is a valuable source for monitoring dryness and air temperature variations in the region. Moreover, the results provide a basis for effective water allocation decisions to maintain the hydrological and ecological functionality of the Gavkhouni wetland. Considering that many factors such as latitude, cloud cover, and the direction of prevailing winds affect land surface and air temperatures, it is suggested to use a numerical climate model to improve a regional understanding of the effects of wetland dryness on the surrounding climate

The Gavkhouni Wetland Dryness and Its Impact on Air Temperature Variability in the Eastern Part of the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran

The Gavkhouni wetland provides many environmental and economic benefits for the central region of Iran. In recent decades, it has completely dried up several times with substantial impacts on local ecosystems and climate. Remote sensing-based Land Surface Temperature (LST), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in combination with in-situ data were used to investigate the trend of the Gavkhouni wetland dryness and the associated impact on the variability of local air temperature. The results indicate that the wetland has increasingly experienced drier conditions since the year 2000. The wetland was almost completely dry in 2009, 2011, 2015 and 2017. In addition, the results show that Gavkhouni wetland dryness has a significant impact on local climate, increasing the mean seasonal air temperature by ~1.6 °C and ~1 °C in spring and summer, respectively. Overall, this study shows that remote sensing imagery is a valuable source for monitoring dryness and air temperature variations in the region. Moreover, the results provide a basis for effective water allocation decisions to maintain the hydrological and ecological functionality of the Gavkhouni wetland. Considering that many factors such as latitude, cloud cover, and the direction of prevailing winds affect land surface and air temperatures, it is suggested to use a numerical climate model to improve a regional understanding of the effects of wetland dryness on the surrounding climate