Exchange Rates and Economic Recovery in the 1930s

Currency depreciation in the 1930s is almost universally dismissed or condemned. It is credited with providing little if any stimulus for economic recovery in the depreciating countries and blamed for transmitting harmful beggar-thy-neighbor impulses to the rest of the world econonv. In this paper we argue for a radically different interpretation of exchange-rate policy in the 1930s . We document first that currency depreciation was beneficial for the initiating countries. It worked through both the standard supply- and demand-side channels suggested by modern variants of the Keynesian model. We show next that there can in fact be no presumption that currency depreciation inthe 1930s was beggar-thy-neighbor policy. Rather, an empirical analysis of the historical record is needed to determine whether the impact on other countries was favorable or unfavorable. We conclude provisionally on the basis of this analysis that the foreign repercussions of individual devaluations were in fact negative -that the depreciations considered were beggar-thy-neighbor. As we point out, however, this finding does not support the conclusion that competitive devaluations taken by a group of countries were without benefit for the system as a whole. We argue to the contrary that similar policies, had they been even more widely adopted, would have hastened recovery from the Great Depression.

Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies in the OECD

Discontent with the functioning of the world monetary system has led to many proposals for international monetary reform. These proposals range from enhanced consultations under the current regime of floating exchange rates to a regime of fixed exchange rates, as proposed by Ronald McKinnon. In this paper we examine the implications of several alternative monetary arrangements for fiscal policy in the world economy. In particular we focus upon two issues. The first is the effects of alternative monetary arrangements on the international transmission of fiscal policy. The second is the implications of the alternative regimes for strategic aspects of fiscal policymaking.As is generally the case in the discussion of exchange regimes we find that the choice of the monetary system is crucially dependent upon the source and nature of the shocks hitting the world economy. In this paper we show that the monetary regime also has important implications for the transmission offiscal policy in the world economy and for the nature of the strategic games played by fiscal authorities. Rigid rules of the game, as under fixedexchange rates, do not necessarily eliminate the inefficient equilibriathat can occur when fiscal authorities behave non-cooperatively.

Anticipations, Recessions and Policy: An Intertemporal Disequilibrium Model

This paper presents an intertemporal disequilibrium model with rational expectations, i.e. a model in which agents anticipate the future rationally, but in which prices and wages may not adjust fast enough to maintain continuous market clearing. Therefore, optimizing firms and households base their intertemporal plans on anticipations of both future quantity constraints and future prices. Such a model shows clearly that the effect of a policy depends not only on its current values but its anticipated path, After a presentation of the model and its basic dynamics, we therefore consider the effects of various paths of fiscal policy on the economy.

Macroeconomic Policies in the OECD and LDC External Adjustmemt

In this paper, the authors describe a simulation model for analyzing the effects of macroeconomic policies in the OECD on global macroeconomic equilibrium. Particular attention is paid to the effects on developing countries of alternative mixes of monetary and fiscal policies in the OECD.Though the model is quite small, it has several properties which make it attractive for policy analysis. First, the important stock-flow relationships and intertemporal budget constraints are carefully observed, so that the modelis useful for short-run and long-run analysis. Budget deficits, for example,cumulate into a stock of public debt which must be serviced, while current account deficits cumulate into a stock of foreign debt. Second, the asset markets are forward looking, so that the exchange rate is conditioned by the entire future path of policies rather than by a set of short-run expectations. Third, the model is amenable to policy optimization exercises, and in particular can be used to study the effects of policy coordination versus non-coordination in the OECD, on global macroeconomic equilibrium.

Metal Parts Generation by Three Dimensional Printing

Mechanical Engineerin

Comparing the Performance of Alternative Exchange Arrangements

The volatility of the world economy since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods par value system of exchange rates has led many policymakers and economists to call for reform of the international monetary system. Many critics of the current "non-system" call for tighter international rules of the game in macroeconomic policy making. The proposed systems cover a wide spectrum of measures including maintaining the current flexible exchange rate system but with increased consultations between the major economies; a "target zone " system as advocated by John Williamson; or a full return to a system of fixed exchange rates as advocated by Ronald McKinnon This paper presents and applies a methodology useful for studying the operating characteristics of a number of alternative monetary arrangements using a large-scale simulation model of the world economy. We consider the performance of the regimes when policymakers do or do not observe the shocks, and when policymakers infer the shocks using an optimal filtering rule. Although the results are model specific and at best illustrative of the issues involved, the approach does have the advantage of providing a richer framework of analysis than is possible in simple models of international interdependence.

The symmetries of the Dirac--Pauli equation in two and three dimensions

We calculate all symmetries of the Dirac-Pauli equation in two-dimensional and three-dimensional Euclidean space. Further, we use our results for an investigation of the issue of zero mode degeneracy. We construct explicitly a class of multiple zero modes with their gauge potentials.Comment: 22 pages, Latex. Final version as published in JMP. Contains an additional subsection (4.2) with the explicit construction of multiple zero mode

A Path Model for Adult Learner Feedback

A path model of adult learner feedback that combined aspects of students' conceptions of learning and motivation was developed. Students that were high on achievement motivation and in their belief of their own competence or competency expectations showed high graded performance. Students that were high on competency expectations and on mastery goals were also high on intrinsic motivation. Significant gender differences were not found on any of the variables used in this study, and adult learners' assessment of their own ability to do well agreed with their actual performance. Suggestions are made for further study that could elaborate on the proposed path model.published_or_final_versio

Dynamic Optimization in Two-Party Models

The goal of this paper is to study the problem of optimal dynamic policy formulation with competing political parties. We study a general class of problems, in which the two competing political parties have quadratic intertemporal objective functions, and in which the economy has a linear structure and a multidimensional state space. For the general linear quadratic problem we develop a numerical dynamic programming algorithm to solve for optimal policies of each party taking into account the party's objectives; the structure of the economy ; the probability of future election results; and the objectives of the other political party.