Identifying manifolds underlying group motion in Vicsek agents

Collective motion of animal groups often undergoes changes due to perturbations. In a topological sense, we describe these changes as switching between low-dimensional embedding manifolds underlying a group of evolving agents. To characterize such manifolds, first we introduce a simple mapping of agents between time-steps. Then, we construct a novel metric which is susceptible to variations in the collective motion, thus revealing distinct underlying manifolds. The method is validated through three sample scenarios simulated using a Vicsek model, namely switching of speed, coordination, and structure of a group. Combined with a dimensionality reduction technique that is used to infer the dimensionality of the embedding manifold, this approach provides an effective model-free framework for the analysis of collective behavior across animal species.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, journal articl

Speed modulated social influence in evacuating pedestrian crowds

Evacuation is a complex social phenomenon with individuals tending to exit a confined space as soon as possible. Social factors that influence an individual include collision avoidance and conformity with others with respect to the tendency to exit. While collision avoidance has been heavily focused on by the agent-based models used frequently to simulate evacuation scenarios, these models typically assume that all agents have an equal desire to exit the scene in a given situation. It is more likely that, out of those who are exiting, some are patient while others seek to exit as soon as possible. Here, we experimentally investigate the effect of different proportions of patient (no-rush) versus impatient (rush) individuals in an evacuating crowd of up to 24 people. Our results show that a) average speed changes significantly for individuals who otherwise tended to rush (or not rush) with both type of individuals speeding up in the presence of the other; and b) deviation rate, defined as the amount of turning, changes significantly for the rush individuals in the presence of no-rush individuals. We then seek to replicate this effect with Helbing's social force model with the twin purposes of analyzing how well the model fits experimental data, and explaining the differences in speed in terms of model parameters. We find that we must change the interaction parameters for both rush and no-rush agents depending on the condition that we are modeling in order to fit the model to the experimental data

Effect of leader placement on robotic swarm control

Human control of a robotic swarm entails selecting a few in-fluential leaders who can steer the collective efficiently and robustly. However, a clear measure of influence with respect to leader position is not adequately studied. Studies with animal systems have shown that leaders who exert strong couplings may be located in front, where they provide energy benefits, or in the middle, where they can be seen by a larger section of the group. In this paper, we systematically vary number of leaders and leader positions in simulated robotic swarms of two different sizes, and assess their effect on steering effectiveness and energy expenditure. In particular, we analyze the effect of placing leaders in the front, middle, and periphery, on the time to converge and lateral acceleration of a swarm of robotic agents as it performs a single turn to reach the desired goal direction. Our results show that swarms with leaders in the middle and periphery take less time to converge than swarms with leaders in the front, while the lateral acceleration between the three placement strategies is not different. We also find that the time to converge towards the goal direction reduces with the increase in percentage of leaders in the swarm, although this value decays slowly beyond the percentage of leaders at 30%. As the swarm size is increased, we find that the leaders in the periphery become less effective in reducing the time to converge. Finally, closer analysis of leader placement and coverage reveals that front leaders within the swarm tend to expand their coverage and move towards the center as the maneuver is performed. Results from this study are expected to inform leader placement strategies towards more effective human swarm interaction systems

Predicting the Effects of Waning Vaccine Immunity Against COVID-19 through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling

The potential waning of the vaccination immunity to COVID-19 could pose threats to public health, as it is tenable that the timing of such waning would synchronize with the near-complete restoration of normalcy. Should also testing be relaxed, we might witness a resurgent COVID-19 wave in winter 2021/2022. In response to this risk, an additional vaccine dose, the booster shot, is being administered worldwide. In a projected study with an outlook of six months, we explore the interplay between the rate at which boosters are distributed and the extent to which testing practices are implemented, using a highly granular agent-based model tuned on a medium-sized U.S. town. Theoretical projections indicate that the administration of boosters at the rate at which the vaccine is currently administered could yield a severe resurgence of the pandemic. Projections suggest that the peak levels of mid spring 2021 in the vaccination rate may prevent such a scenario to occur, although exact agreement between observations and projections should not be expected due to continuously evolving nature of the pandemics. Our study highlights the importance of testing, especially to detect asymptomatic individuals in the near future, as the release of the booster reaches full speed.Comment: 56 pages; 15 figures; accepted for publication in Advanced Theory and Simulation

Designing the Safe Reopening of US Towns Through High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling

As COVID‐19 vaccine is being rolled out in the US, public health authorities are gradually reopening the economy. To date, there is no consensus on a common approach among local authorities. Here, a high‐resolution agent‐based model is proposed to examine the interplay between the increased immunity afforded by the vaccine roll‐out and the transmission risks associated with reopening efforts. The model faithfully reproduces the demographics, spatial layout, and mobility patterns of the town of New Rochelle, NY — representative of the urban fabric of the US. Model predictions warrant caution in the reopening under the current rate at which people are being vaccinated, whereby increasing access to social gatherings in leisure locations and households at a 1% daily rate can lead to a 28% increase in the fatality rate within the next three months. The vaccine roll‐out plays a crucial role on the safety of reopening: doubling the current vaccination rate is predicted to be sufficient for safe, rapid reopening

Activity‑driven network modeling and control of the spread of two concurrent epidemic strains

The emergency generated by the current COVID-19 pandemic has claimed millions of lives worldwide. There have been multiple waves across the globe that emerged as a result of new variants, due to arising from unavoidable mutations. The existing network toolbox to study epidemic spreading cannot be readily adapted to the study of multiple, coexisting strains. In this context, particularly lacking are models that could elucidate re-infection with the same strain or a different strain—phenomena that we are seeing experiencing more and more with COVID-19. Here, we establish a novel mathematical model to study the simultaneous spreading of two strains over a class of temporal networks. We build on the classical susceptible–exposed–infectious–removed model, by incorporating additional states that account for infections and re-infections with multiple strains. The temporal network is based on the activity-driven network paradigm, which has emerged as a model of choice to study dynamic processes that unfold at a time scale comparable to the network evolution. We draw analytical insight from the dynamics of the stochastic network systems through a mean-field approach, which allows for characterizing the onset of different behavioral phenotypes (non-epidemic, epidemic, and endemic). To demonstrate the practical use of the model, we examine an intermittent stay-at-home containment strategy, in which a fraction of the population is randomly required to isolate for a fixed period of time

High-Resolution Agent-Based Modeling of COVID-19 Spreading in a Small Town

Amid the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, public health authorities and the general population are striving to achieve a balance between safety and normalcy. Ever changing conditions call for the development of theory and simulation tools to finely describe multiple strata of society while supporting the evaluation of "what-if" scenarios. Particularly important is to assess the effectiveness of potential testing approaches and vaccination strategies. Here, an agent-based modeling platform is proposed to simulate the spreading of COVID-19 in small towns and cities, with a single-individual resolution. The platform is validated on real data from New Rochelle, NY -- one of the first outbreaks registered in the United States. Supported by expert knowledge and informed by reported data, the model incorporates detailed elements of the spreading within a statistically realistic population. Along with pertinent functionality such as testing, treatment, and vaccination options, the model accounts for the burden of other illnesses with symptoms similar to COVID-19. Unique to the model is the possibility to explore different testing approaches -- in hospitals or drive-through facilities -- and vaccination strategies that could prioritize vulnerable groups. Decision making by public authorities could benefit from the model, for its fine-grain resolution, open-source nature, and wide range of features.Comment: 44 pages (including 16 of Supplementary Information). Published online in Advanced Theory and Simulation