Does Uncertainty Matter: An Application to the Willingness to Pay to Reduce Swimming Bans in Chicago

Using a survey of Chicago beachgoers, this research examines the effect of uncertain response options on the willingness to pay to reduce swimming bans. Various recoding options are tested and implemented, as well as multinomial model for choice. Estimates are compared to those from a dataset with certainty, as well as to those from revealed preference methods. The reasons and sources for uncertainty are explored and compared across samples.Institutional and Behavioral Economics,

AN INVERSE DEMAND APPROACH TO RECREATION FISHING SITE CHOICE AND IMPLIED MARGINAL VALUES

An alternative methodology for determining marginal willingness to pay values for recreational fishing trips is developed based on inverse demand systems and the distance function. Our empirical application uses joint estimation of several species-specific site equations from a recreation fishing data set. Results are compared to a random utility model.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

EMPIRICAL SPECIFICATION REQUIREMENTS FOR TWO-CONSTRAINT MODELS OF RECREATION DEMAND

Theoretical restrictions implied by the two-constraint recreation demand model are developed. The structure necessary to specify empirical models shows that most current models of recreation incorporate time in a manner inconsistent with theory. Results are applicable to all recreationists and are particularly useful to those with endogenous marginal values of time.Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

USING CONTINGENT VALUATION WITH RESPONDENT UNCERTAINTY TO ESTIMATE THE COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROGRAMS: AN APPLICATION TO CANADIAN LANDOWNERS

Using a survey of western Canadian agricultural landowners, we examine the cost and viability of two distinct afforestation options for carbon-uptake purposes. Responses to two separate, but most-likely related willingness to accept compensation questions are elicited using the contingent valuation method. Respondents then select the level of certainty with which they believe their responses were given. This paper provides a framework for estimation of the bivariate model with certainty and a modification of the model to incorporate uncertainty based on Li and Mattson's approach to preference uncertainty. While highly preliminary results are given for the bivariate model with certainty, applications of both models will be presented at the 2003 AAEA Meetings.Environmental Economics and Policy, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

The Effect of Uncertainty on Contingent Valuation Estimates: A Comparison

We examine the impact of uncertainty on contingent valuation responses using (1) a survey of Canadian landowners about willingness to accept compensation for converting cropland to forestry and (2) a survey of Swedish residents about willingness to pay for forest conservation. Five approaches from the literature for incorporating respondent uncertainty are used and compared to the traditional RUM model with assumed certainty. The results indicate that incorporating uncertainty has the potential to increase fit, but could introduce additional variance. While some methods for uncertainty are an improvement over traditional approaches, we caution against systematic judgments about the effect of uncertainty on contingent valuation responses.respondent uncertainty, willingness to accept, contingent valuation

Are Agricultural Values a Reliable Guide in Determining Landowners’ Decisions to Create Carbon Forest Sinks?

This research examines the effects of various factors on farmer participation in agricultural tree plantations for economic, environmental, social and carbon-uptake purposes, and potential costs of sequestering carbon through afforestation in western Canada. Using data from a survey of landowners, a discrete choice random utility model is used to determine the probability of landowners’ participation and corresponding mean willingness to accept (WTA) compensation for a tree-planting program. WTA includes positive and negative benefits to landowners from planting trees, benefits not captured by foregone returns from agricultural activities on marginal land. Estimates of WTA are less than foregone returns, but even so average costs of creating carbon credits still exceed their projected value under a CO2-emissions trading scheme.Willingness to accept compensation for tree planting, afforestation, climate change

Carbon Incentive Mechanisms and Land-Use Implications for Canadian Agriculture

This research examines effects of various factors on participation in agricultural tree plantations for economic, environmental, social and carbon-uptake purposes. Using survey data from 2000 mail surveys of Canadian farmers, a discrete choice random utility analysis is used to determine probability of farmers' participation and the corresponding mean willingness to accept a tree-planting program. Estimation results show that the required compensation for accepting a tree-planting program is higher than the compensation suggested by a normative approachEnvironmental Economics and Policy, Land Economics/Use,

ESTIMATING THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF RECREATION TIME IN AN INTEGRABLE 2-CONSTRAINT COUNT DEMAND MODEL

How researchers treat the opportunity cost of time substantially influences recreation demand parameter and welfare estimates. This paper presents a utility-theoretic and implementable approach, estimating the shadow value of time jointly with recreation demands for coastal activities, using a generalization of the semilog demand system in a two-constraint model.Consumer/Household Economics, Demand and Price Analysis,

Does Inclusion of Landowners’ Non-Market Values Lower Costs of Creating Carbon Forest Sinks?

This research examines effects of various factors on farmer participation in agricultural tree plantations for economic, environmental, social and carbon-uptake purposes. Using data from a survey of Canadian agricultural landowners, a discrete choice random utility model is used to determine the probability of farmers’ participation and corresponding mean willingness to accept (WTA) compensation for a tree-planting program. WTA includes positive and negative nonmarket benefits to landowners from planting trees. Estimates of WTA are less than foregone agricultural rents, but average costs of creating carbon credits still exceed their projected value under a CO2-emissions trading scheme.Willingness to accept compensation for tree planting, afforestation, climate change

MULTISPECIES REVENUE FUNCTION ESTIMATION FOR NORTH PACIFIC GROUNDFISH FISHERIES

Multiproduct, multispecies revenue functions are estimated for the midwater and bottom-trawl pollock fisheries off Alaska. There are strong year and seasonal effects on coefficient estimates, and the technology is joint in outputs for each major operation type. The model is a step toward prediction of fishery regulatory effects.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,