Alerts work! Air quality warnings and cycling

Alert programs are central to strategies to reduce pollution exposure and manage its impact. To be effective alerts have to change behavior, but evidence that they do that is sparse. Indeed the majority of published studies fail to find a significant impact of alerts on the outcome behavior that they study. Alerts particularly seek to influence energetic cardio-vascular outdoor pursuits. This study is the first to use administrative data to show that they are effective in reducing participation in such a pursuit (namely cycle use in Sydney, Australia), and to our knowledge the first to show that they are effective in changing any behavior in a non-US setting. We are careful to disentangle possible reactions to realised air quality from the ‘pure’, causal effect of the issuance of an alert. Our results suggest that when an air quality alert is issued, the amount of cycling is reduced by 14–35%, which is a substantial behavioral response. The results are robust to the inclusion of a battery of controls in various combinations, alternative estimation methods and non-linear specifications. We develop various sub-sample results, and also find evidence of alert fatigue

Temperature and decisions: evidence from 207,000 court cases

We analyze the impact of outdoor temperature on high-stakes decisions (immigration adjudications) made by professional decision-makers (US immigration judges). In our preferred specification, which includes spatial, temporal and judge fixed effects, and controls for various potential confounders, a 10 °F degree increase in case-day temperature reduces decisions favorable to the applicant by 6.55%. This is despite judgements being made indoors, 'protected' by climate-control. Results are consistent with established links from temperature to mood and risk appetite and have important implications for evaluating the influence of climate on 'cognitive output'

Temperature and decisions: evidence from 207,000 court cases

We analyze the impact of outdoor temperature on high-stakes decisions (immigration adjudications) made by professional decision-makers (US immigration judges). In our preferred specification, which includes spatial, temporal and judge fixed effects, and controls for various potential confounders, a 10 °F degree increase in case-day temperature reduces decisions favorable to the applicant by 6.55%. This is despite judgements being made indoors, 'protected' by climate-control. Results are consistent with established links from temperature to mood and risk appetite and have important implications for evaluating the influence of climate on 'cognitive output'

Pollution and learning:Causal evidence from Obama’s Iran sanctions

We provide evidence of a substantial impact of pollution in the vicinity of a school on student learning using standardized test results from the universe of Tehran junior schools. Causal identification exploits that the 2010 US sanctions prevented the sale of refined petroleum products to Iran which differentially impacted air quality at schools in the city, depending on the location of each with respect to the road network. Relative performance dropped at more road-exposed (variously-measured) schools. Roads upwind appear to have four times the impact compared to those downwind, aligning with the prevailing wind direction which blows 80% of the time from the west, a finding that also provides compelling evidence against alternative interpretations

Pollution and learning:Causal evidence from Obama’s Iran sanctions

We provide evidence of a substantial impact of pollution in the vicinity of a school on student learning using standardized test results from the universe of Tehran junior schools. Causal identification exploits that the 2010 US sanctions prevented the sale of refined petroleum products to Iran which differentially impacted air quality at schools in the city, depending on the location of each with respect to the road network. Relative performance dropped at more road-exposed (variously-measured) schools. Roads upwind appear to have four times the impact compared to those downwind, aligning with the prevailing wind direction which blows 80% of the time from the west, a finding that also provides compelling evidence against alternative interpretations