Values and prices of basic oil derivatives in Western European markets during 2008

Slijedom metode analiziranja međusobnih odnosa cijena nafte i derivata u 2006. i 2007. godini isti obrazac je primijenjen je i za analizu tih odnosa u 2008. godini. Utvrđuju se promijenjeni odnosi vrijednosti nagovješteni u prethodnoj analizi, a u uvjetima nestabilnih cijena koje su vladale na tržištu, što je jedna od bitnih karakteristika naftnog gospodarstva u cijeloj 2008. godini, nužno je bilo osvrnuti se i na neuobičajene oscilacije ekonomskih rezultata poslovanja rafinerija iskazanih putem analize kretanja tzv. rafinerijske marže (bruto i neto).This article provides an analysis of movements in prices of crude oil and main derivatives in 2008 by using the same methodology that was used in analysing the prices and relationships between crude oil and main derivatives prices in 2006 and 2007. The analysis identifies changes in values that were signalled even in the previous study, in the environment of volatile prices which prevailed in the markets. Indeed, volatility was one of key features of oil industry throughout 2008. We also give a brief overview of unusual fluctuation in refinery margins (gross and net)

Values and Prices of Main Oil Derivatives on the West European Market During 2006 and 2007

Analizirajući međusobno kretanje cijena nafte i temeljnih naftnih derivata – premium benzina, dizela i teškog ulja za loženje koje vrijede na sjevero-zapadnom europskom tržištu u posljednje dvije godine, uz utvrđivanje njihovih odnosa – skreće se pozornost na karakteristične tendencije promjene odnosa tih cijena. Praćenjem kretanja odnosa cijena nafte i naftnih proizvoda (derivata) pomoću jednostavne obrade statističkih podataka u modelu koji je sastavni dio članka te poznavanjem istog, moguće je pouzdanije snalaženje pa i predviđanje kratkoročnih - dnevnih oscilacija cijena derivata temeljem dnevnih promjena cijena nafte. Metoda se temelji na praktički konstantnim srednjim aritmetičkim i geometrijskim odnosima cijena derivata prema cijeni nafte bez obzira na intenzivne oscilacije ovih cijena tijekom zadnjih godina. Eventualna odstupanja spomenutih odnosa (motorni benzin i dizelsko gorivo) objašnjiva su stvarnim promjenama odnosa njihovih tržnih vrijednosti temeljem vrlo postupne i trajne promjene odnosa ponude i potražnje, ali i proporcionalno slijede sve spekulativne financijske i burzovne utjecaje na cijenu nafte u promatranom periodu.Analysis of mutual movements of prices for oil and main oil derivatives – premium gasoline, diesel and heavy fuel oil applicable on the market of Northwest Europe in the last two whole years, as well as determination of relationships between them – draws the attention to characteristic tendencies of changed relationships between these prices. By monitoring the movement of relationships between prices for oil and oil derivatives through simple processing of statistical data according to the model which is the subject of this paper and based on its understanding, more reliable follow-up and even prediction of short-term – daily oscillations in prices of oil derivatives based on daily changes of oil prices, becomes possible. The method is based on practically constant average arithmetic and geometric relationships between the prices for oil derivatives and oil regardless of the intense oscillations of these prices in recent years. Possible deviations of above relationships (motor gasoline and diesel fuel) can be explained by the actual change in relationships of their market values based on very gradual and permanent change between supply and demand, which also proportionally follows all speculative financial and stock exchange impacts on the price of oil in the period under review

Movement of crude oil and derivatives prices, retail prices and taxes in 2009

Nakon 2008. godine i burnih promjena u naftnom gospodarstvu, kretanja cijena nafte ali i naftnih derivata u 2009. godini ponovno su počele privlačiti pozornost cjelokupne javnosti. Članak obuhvaća odnos kretanja cijena sirove nafte, veleprodajne i maloprodajnih cijene naftnih derivata ali po prvi puta se daje prikaz odnosa cijena sirove nafte i maloprodajnih cijena derivata. Za analizu kretanja maloprodajnih cijena odabrane su četiri europske zemlje na temelju njihove značajne uloge u potrošnji naftnih derivata. Kretanje maloprodajnih cijena naftnih derivata u Hrvatskoj, zbog nedostatka podataka nije moguće prikazati na identičan način kao za odabrane četiri europske zemlje. Iz tog razloga, na temelju zadnje korekcije cijena u 2009. godini prikazana je struktura cijena za motorni benzin i dizel gorivo, odnosno koliki je udio neto cijena i poreznih opterećenja u maloprodajnoj cijeni.After dramatic changes in oil industry during 2008, movements in crude oil and derivatives prices in 2009 regained attention of overall public. This article deals with the relationships between crude oil price movements, wholesale and retail prices of derivatives, but for the first time it also gives an overview of relationship between crude oil prices and retail prices of derivatives. For analysis of retail prices movements we have selected four European countries due to their significant role in derivatives consumption. Movement of oil derivatives retail prices in Croatian market could not be presented in identical way as for the selected four European countries due to lack of data. For this reason, based on the last price correction in 2009, the article presents price structure of motor gasoline and diesel fuel and the respective shares of net prices and taxes in total retail price

Oil Market in 2007

Tijekom 2007. godine ekonomska slika svijeta mijenjala se kako zbog kretanja cijena nafte tako i zbog kretanja cijena hrane, što je našlo odražaja u ukupnom svjetskom gospodarstvu, prije svega u promjeni postignutih vrijednosti a zatim i u deprecijaciji vrijednosti valuta. Pri takvim situacijama vijesti o cijenama nafte i pogotovo kasnije o cijenama naftnih derivata vrlo često nisu imale realan pristup, pa u prikazu koji slijedi, koji je u krajnjoj liniji nastavak prikaza iz prošle godine, posebno se razmatra situacija na tržištu nafte.During 2007, the economic picture of the world has been changing due to oil price increase and food price increase, which both reflected on the overall world economy, primarily in the change of accomplished values and then in the value depreciation of certain currencies. Due to such situations the news on oil prices and especially later on oil derivates prices were often unrealistic, thus in the following review which is actually the sequel of last year’s review, the situation on oil market shall be elaborated