Modelling the overdiagnosis of breast cancer due to mammography screening in women aged 40 to 49 in the United Kingdom

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Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of breast cancer: Overdiagnosis in randomised controlled trials of breast cancer screening

Data from randomised controlled trials of mammographic screening can be used to determine the extent of any overdiagnosis, as soon as either a time equivalent to the lead-time has elapsed after the final screen, or the control arm has been offered screening. This paper reviews those randomised trials for which breast cancer incidence data are available. In recent trials in which the control group has not been offered screening, an excess incidence of breast cancer remains after many years of follow-up. In those trials in which the control arm has been offered screening, although there is a possible shift from invasive to in situ disease, there is no evidence of overdiagnosis as a result of incident screens

The overdiagnosis nightmare: a time for caution

Overdiagnosis (and overtreatment) of cancers not bound to become symptomatic during lifetime is an unavoidable drawback of mammography screening. The magnitude of overdiagnosis has been estimated to be in the range of 5-10%, and thus acceptable in view of screening benefits as to reduced mortality. In a recent research article in BMC Women's Health, Jørgensen, Zahl and Gøtzsche suggest that overdiagnosis may be as high as 33%, based on their analysis of breast cancer incidence in screened and non-screened areas in Denmark. Here we consider how reliable such analyses can be, why it might have been useful to adjust comparisons between screened and non-screened areas for early detection lead time, and what further evidence might be needed to build on or confirm these results

Randomised controlled trial of mammographic screening in women from age 40: predicted mortality based on surrogate outcome measures

A trial in the UK to study the effect on mortality from breast cancer of invitation for annual mammography from the age of 40–41, has randomised a total of 160 921 women in the ratio 1 : 2 to the intervention and control arms. All breast cancers diagnosed in the two arms have been identified, and the histology reviewed. This paper presents the results of an interim analysis using surrogate outcome measures to compare predicted breast cancer mortality in the two arms based on 1287 cases diagnosed to 31.12.1999. Due to earlier diagnosis, there is currently an 8% excess of invasive breast cancers in the intervention arm. The ratio of predicted deaths at 10 years in the intervention arm relative to the control arm, adjusted for this excess diagnosis, ranges from 0.89 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.78–1.01) to 0.90 (95% CI 0.80–1.01). Screening from age 40 may result in a lower reduction in breast cancer mortality than that observed in other trials including women below age 50. This analysis based on surrogate outcome measures suggests that a reduction in breast cancer mortality may be observed in this trial. However, a number of assumptions have been necessary and firm conclusions must await the analysis of observed mortality from breast cancer

Overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening: the importance of length of observation period and lead time

PMCID: PMC3706885This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Peroxisome Proliferator-Activated Receptor alpha (PPAR alpha) down-regulation in cystic fibrosis lymphocytes

Background: PPARs exhibit anti-inflammatory capacities and are potential modulators of the inflammatory response. We hypothesized that their expression and/or function may be altered in cystic fibrosis (CF), a disorder characterized by an excessive host inflammatory response. Methods: PPARα, β and γ mRNA levels were measured in peripheral blood cells of CF patients and healthy subjects via RT-PCR. PPARα protein expression and subcellular localization was determined via western blot and immunofluorescence, respectively. The activity of PPARα was analyzed by gel shift assay. Results: In lymphocytes, the expression of PPARα mRNA, but not of PPARβ, was reduced (-37%; p < 0.002) in CF patients compared with healthy persons and was therefore further analyzed. A similar reduction of PPARα was observed at protein level (-26%; p < 0.05). The transcription factor was mainly expressed in the cytosol of lymphocytes, with low expression in the nucleus. Moreover, DNA binding activity of the transcription factor was 36% less in lymphocytes of patients (p < 0.01). For PPARα and PPARβ mRNA expression in monocytes and neutrophils, no significant differences were observed between CF patients and healthy persons. In all cells, PPARγ mRNA levels were below the detection limit. Conclusion: Lymphocytes are important regulators of the inflammatory response by releasing cytokines and antibodies. The diminished lymphocytic expression and activity of PPARα may therefore contribute to the inflammatory processes that are observed in CF

The supermultiplet of boundary conditions in supergravity

Boundary conditions in supergravity on a manifold with boundary relate the bulk gravitino to the boundary supercurrent, and the normal derivative of the bulk metric to the boundary energy-momentum tensor. In the 3D N=1 setting, we show that these boundary conditions can be stated in a manifestly supersymmetric form. We identify the Extrinsic Curvature Tensor Multiplet, and show that boundary conditions set it equal to (a conjugate of) the boundary supercurrent multiplet. Extension of our results to higher-dimensional models (including the Randall-Sundrum and Horava-Witten scenarios) is discussed.Comment: 22 pages. JHEP format; references added; published versio

Calcitization of aragonitic bryozoans in Cenozoic tropical carbonates from East Kalimantan, Indonesia

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The Stokes Phenomenon and Quantum Tunneling for de Sitter Radiation in Nonstationary Coordinates

We study quantum tunneling for the de Sitter radiation in the planar coordinates and global coordinates, which are nonstationary coordinates and describe the expanding geometry. Using the phase-integral approximation for the Hamilton-Jacobi action in the complex plane of time, we obtain the particle-production rate in both coordinates and derive the additional sinusoidal factor depending on the dimensionality of spacetime and the quantum number for spherical harmonics in the global coordinates. This approach resolves the factor of two problem in the tunneling method.Comment: LaTex 10 pages, no figur

Caspase cleavage of the Golgi stacking factor GRASP65 is required for Fas/CD95-mediated apoptosis

GRASP65 (Golgi reassembly and stacking protein of 65 KDa) is a cis-Golgi protein with roles in Golgi structure, membrane trafficking and cell signalling. It is cleaved by caspase-3 early in apoptosis, promoting Golgi fragmentation. We now show that cleavage is needed for Fas-mediated apoptosis: expression of caspase-resistant GRASP65 protects cells, whereas expression of membrane proximal caspase-cleaved GRASP65 fragments dramatically sensitises cells. GRASP65 coordinates passage through the Golgi apparatus of proteins containing C-terminal hydrophobic motifs, via its tandem PDZ type ‘GRASP' domains. Fas/CD95 contains a C-terminal leucine–valine pairing so its trafficking might be coordinated by GRASP65. Mutagenesis of the Fas/CD95 LV motif reduces the number of cells with Golgi-associated Fas/CD95, and generates a receptor that is more effective at inducing apoptosis; however, siRNA-mediated silencing or expression of mutant GRASP65 constructs do not alter the steady state distribution of Fas/CD95. We also find no evidence for a GRASP65–Fas/CD95 interaction at the molecular level. Instead, we find that the C-terminal fragments of GRASP65 produced following caspase cleavage are targeted to mitochondria, and ectopic expression of these sensitises HeLa cells to Fas ligand. Our data suggest that GRASP65 cleavage promotes Fas/CD95-mediated apoptosis via release of C-terminal fragments that act at the mitochondria, and we identify Bcl-XL as a candidate apoptotic binding partner for GRASP65