Forecasting paediatric malaria admissions on the Kenya Coast using rainfall

Background Malaria is a vector-borne disease which, despite recent scaled-up efforts to achieve control in Africa, continues to pose a major threat to child survival. The disease is caused by the protozoan parasite Plasmodium and requires mosquitoes and humans for transmission. Rainfall is a major factor in seasonal and secular patterns of malaria transmission along the East African coast. Objective The goal of the study was to develop a model to reliably forecast incidences of paediatric malaria admissions to Kilifi District Hospital (KDH). Design In this article, we apply several statistical models to look at the temporal association between monthly paediatric malaria hospital admissions, rainfall, and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Trend and seasonally adjusted, marginal and multivariate, time-series models for hospital admissions were applied to a unique data set to examine the role of climate, seasonality, and long-term anomalies in predicting malaria hospital admission rates and whether these might become more or less predictable with increasing vector control. Results The proportion of paediatric admissions to KDH that have malaria as a cause of admission can be forecast by a model which depends on the proportion of malaria admissions in the previous 2 months. This model is improved by incorporating either the previous month's Indian Ocean Dipole information or the previous 2 months’ rainfall. Conclusions Surveillance data can help build time-series prediction models which can be used to anticipate seasonal variations in clinical burdens of malaria in stable transmission areas and aid the timing of malaria vector control

Using data from a multi-hospital clinical network to explore prevalence of pediatric rickets in Kenya

Background:andnbsp;Nutritional rickets is a public health concern in developing countries despite tropical climates and a re-emerging issue in developed countries. In this study, we reviewed pediatric admission data from the Clinical Information Network (CIN) to help determine hospital and region based prevalence of rickets in three regions of Kenya (Central Kenya, Western Kenya and Nairobi County). We also examine the association of rickets with other diagnosis, such as malnutrition and pneumonia, and study the effect of rickets on regional hospital stays.Methods:andnbsp;We analyzed discharge records for children aged 1 month to 5 years from county (formerly district) hospitals in the CIN, with admissions from February 1standnbsp;2014 to February 28thandnbsp;2015. The strength of the association between rickets and key demographic factors, as well as with malnutrition and pneumonia, was assessed using odds ratios. The Fisher exact test was used to test the significance of the estimated odd ratios. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to analyze length of hospital stays.Results:andnbsp;There was a marked difference in prevalence across the three regions, with Nairobi having the highest number of cases of rickets at a proportion of 4.01%, followed by Central Region at 0.92%. Out of 9756 admissions in the Western Region, there was only one diagnosis of rickets. Malnutrition was associated with rickets; this association varied regionally. Pneumonia was found to be associated with rickets in Central Kenya. Children diagnosed with rickets had longer hospital stays, even when cases of malnutrition and pneumonia were excluded in the analysis.Conclusion:andnbsp;There was marked regional variation in hospital based prevalence of rickets, but in some regions it is a common clinical diagnosis suggesting the need for targeted public health interventions. Factors such as maternal and child nutrition, urbanization and cultural practices might explain these differences.</p

Using data from a multi-hospital clinical network to explore prevalence of pediatric rickets in Kenya

Background: Nutritional rickets is a public health concern in developing countries despite tropical climates and a re-emerging issue in developed countries. In this study, we reviewed pediatric admission data from the Clinical Information Network (CIN) to help determine hospital and region based prevalence of rickets in three regions of Kenya (Central Kenya, Western Kenya and Nairobi County). We also examine the association of rickets with other diagnosis, such as malnutrition and pneumonia, and study the effect of rickets on regional hospital stays.Methods: We analyzed discharge records for children aged 1 month to 5 years from county (formerly district) hospitals in the CIN, with admissions from February 1st 2014 to February 28th 2015. The strength of the association between rickets and key demographic factors, as well as with malnutrition and pneumonia, was assessed using odds ratios. The Fisher exact test was used to test the significance of the estimated odd ratios. Kaplan-Meier curves were used to analyze length of hospital stays.Results: There was a marked difference in prevalence across the three regions, with Nairobi having the highest number of cases of rickets at a proportion of 4.01%, followed by Central Region at 0.92%. Out of 9756 admissions in the Western Region, there was only one diagnosis of rickets. Malnutrition was associated with rickets; this association varied regionally. Pneumonia was found to be associated with rickets in Central Kenya. Children diagnosed with rickets had longer hospital stays, even when cases of malnutrition and pneumonia were excluded in the analysis.Conclusion: There was marked regional variation in hospital based prevalence of rickets, but in some regions it is a common clinical diagnosis suggesting the need for targeted public health interventions. Factors such as maternal and child nutrition, urbanization and cultural practices might explain these differences.</p