Calibration of Time-Series Forecasting Transformers: Detecting and Adapting Context-Driven Distribution Shift

Recent years have witnessed the success of introducing Transformers to time series forecasting. From a data generation perspective, we illustrate that existing Transformers are susceptible to distribution shifts driven by temporal contexts, whether observed or unobserved. Such context-driven distribution shift (CDS) introduces biases in predictions within specific contexts and poses challenges for conventional training paradigm. In this paper, we introduce a universal calibration methodology for the detection and adaptation of CDS with a trained Transformer model. To this end, we propose a novel CDS detector, termed the "residual-based CDS detector" or "Reconditionor", which quantifies the model's vulnerability to CDS by evaluating the mutual information between prediction residuals and their corresponding contexts. A high Reconditionor score indicates a severe susceptibility, thereby necessitating model adaptation. In this circumstance, we put forth a straightforward yet potent adapter framework for model calibration, termed the "sample-level contextualized adapter" or "SOLID". This framework involves the curation of a contextually similar dataset to the provided test sample and the subsequent fine-tuning of the model's prediction layer with a limited number of steps. Our theoretical analysis demonstrates that this adaptation strategy is able to achieve an optimal equilibrium between bias and variance. Notably, our proposed Reconditionor and SOLID are model-agnostic and readily adaptable to a wide range of Transformers. Extensive experiments show that SOLID consistently enhances the performance of current SOTA Transformers on real-world datasets, especially on cases with substantial CDS detected by the proposed Reconditionor, thus validate the effectiveness of the calibration approach

ULTRA-DP: Unifying Graph Pre-training with Multi-task Graph Dual Prompt

Recent research has demonstrated the efficacy of pre-training graph neural networks (GNNs) to capture the transferable graph semantics and enhance the performance of various downstream tasks. However, the semantic knowledge learned from pretext tasks might be unrelated to the downstream task, leading to a semantic gap that limits the application of graph pre-training. To reduce this gap, traditional approaches propose hybrid pre-training to combine various pretext tasks together in a multi-task learning fashion and learn multi-grained knowledge, which, however, cannot distinguish tasks and results in some transferable task-specific knowledge distortion by each other. Moreover, most GNNs cannot distinguish nodes located in different parts of the graph, making them fail to learn position-specific knowledge and lead to suboptimal performance. In this work, inspired by the prompt-based tuning in natural language processing, we propose a unified framework for graph hybrid pre-training which injects the task identification and position identification into GNNs through a prompt mechanism, namely multi-task graph dual prompt (ULTRA-DP). Based on this framework, we propose a prompt-based transferability test to find the most relevant pretext task in order to reduce the semantic gap. To implement the hybrid pre-training tasks, beyond the classical edge prediction task (node-node level), we further propose a novel pre-training paradigm based on a group of $k$-nearest neighbors (node-group level). The combination of them across different scales is able to comprehensively express more structural semantics and derive richer multi-grained knowledge. Extensive experiments show that our proposed ULTRA-DP can significantly enhance the performance of hybrid pre-training methods and show the generalizability to other pre-training tasks and backbone architectures

Learning transferrable parameters for long-tailed sequential user behavior modeling

National Research Foundation (NRF) Singapore under its AI Singapore Programm

Compositional coding for collaborative filtering

National Research Foundation (NRF) Singapore under its AI Singapore Programm

Regulatory network of GSK3-like kinases and their role in plant stress response

Glycogen synthase kinase 3 (GSK3) family members are evolutionally conserved Ser/Thr protein kinases in mammals and plants. In plants, the GSK3s function as signaling hubs to integrate the perception and transduction of diverse signals required for plant development. Despite their role in the regulation of plant growth and development, emerging research has shed light on their multilayer function in plant stress responses. Here we review recent advances in the regulatory network of GSK3s and the involvement of GSK3s in plant adaptation to various abiotic and biotic stresses. We also discuss the molecular mechanisms underlying how plants cope with environmental stresses through GSK3s-hormones crosstalk, a pivotal biochemical pathway in plant stress responses. We believe that our overview of the versatile physiological functions of GSK3s and underlined molecular mechanism of GSK3s in plant stress response will not only opens further research on this important topic but also provide opportunities for developing stress-resilient crops through the use of genetic engineering technology