Understanding the small business sector: reflections and confessions

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Enterprise profiles in deprived areas: Are they distinctive?

This paper examines the extent to which segmenting business activity on the basis of the relative deprivation of a given area provides additional understanding (in terms of analysis and policy) that is not obtained by alternative divisions, e.g., by sector, size, etc. The paper is primarily motivated by the explicit inclusion of a deprived area dimension to many UK small business/enterprise policies introduced since 1997. We use two datasets drawn from the customer records of Barclays Bank PLC to obtain an initial analysis of the business stocks and dynamics in deprived and non-deprived areas of England. The data indicate that the deprived areas of England vary systematically from the wider economy in terms of several business stock characteristics and associated dynamics. These differences include a lower proportion of business service firms, lower female involvement in the owner-manager base and a poorer risk profile. The analysis supports the view that there are likely to be benefits from the tailoring of small business/ enterprise policies to sub-national levels

New venture survival and growth: Does the fog lift?

Does our ability to predict the performance of new ventures improve in the years after start-up? We investigate the growth and survival of 6247 new ventures that are tracked using the customer records at Barclays Bank. We put forward Gambler’s Ruin as a simple theory for understanding new venture growth and survival. Gambler’s Ruin predicts that the R2 remains low for growth rate regressions, but that the R2 increases in the years since start-up for survival regressions. The Nagelkerke R2 obtained from growth rate regressions decreases significantly in the years after start-up, which suggests that the fog gets thicker with respect to growth. When we focus only on firms surviving until the end of the period, however, there is no visible change in the R2 over time. In contrast, the Nagelkerke R2 of survival regressions increases in the years after start-up. Interestingly, a blip in year 5 suggests that macro-economic factors may have a strong effect on the amount of ‘fog’

Cellular Models of Aggregation-Dependent Template-Directed Proteolysis to Characterize Tau Aggregation Inhibitors for Treatment of Alzheimer's Disease

Copyright © 2015, The American Society for Biochemistry and Molecular Biology. Acknowledgements-We thank Drs Timo Rager and Rolf Hilfiker (Solvias, Switzerland) for polymorph analyses.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Persistence and change in interregional differences in entrepreneurship: England and Wales, 1921–2011

The paper explores time-persistence in interregional differences of self-employment rates in England and Wales in the 1921–2011 period by using census data. The results suggest a strong path-dependence in entrepreneurship as past self-employment rates have strong bearing on future ones. However, there is also some rank mobility reflected in the upward movements of London boroughs and downward movements of primarily coastal areas. Rank mobility relates to structural changes, changes in human capital, regional age structures and immigration

Too fast to live? Effects of growth on survival across the growth distribution

Do moderate-growth new firms have higher survival rates than fast-growing new firms? To address this question the customer bank records of 6578 new ventures are tracked over their first 10 years, and survival is measured either in terms of continued use of the bank account, or by entry into financial default. Simple bar charts show that it is the 7th or 8th decile of the growth distribution that has the highest survival chances. Although growth enhances survival on average, nevertheless the highest decile of the growth distribution never has the highest survival rates

Spitzer IRS Observations of the Galactic Center: Shocked Gas in the Radio Arc Bubble

We present Spitzer IRS spectra (R ~600, 10 - 38 micron) of 38 positions in the Galactic Center (GC), all at the same Galactic longitude and spanning plus/minus 0.3 degrees in latitude. Our positions include the Arches Cluster, the Arched Filaments, regions near the Quintuplet Cluster, the ``Bubble'' lying along the same line-of-sight as the molecular cloud G0.11-0.11, and the diffuse interstellar gas along the line-of-sight at higher Galactic latitudes. From measurements of the [O IV], [Ne II], [Ne III], [Si II], [S III], [S IV], [Fe II], [Fe III], and H_2 S(0), S(1), and S(2) lines we determine the gas excitation and ionic abundance ratios. The Ne/H and S/H abundance ratios are ~ 1.6 times that of the Orion Nebula. The main source of excitation is photoionization, with the Arches Cluster ionizing the Arched Filaments and the Quintuplet Cluster ionizing the gas nearby and at lower Galactic latitudes including the far side of the Bubble. In addition, strong shocks ionize gas to O^{+3} and destroy dust grains, releasing iron into the gas phase (Fe/H ~ 1.3 times 10^{-6} in the Arched Filaments and Fe/H ~ 8.8 times 10^{-6} in the Bubble). The shock effects are particularly noticeable in the center of the Bubble, but O$^{+3}$ is present in all positions. We suggest that the shocks are due to the winds from the Quintuplet Cluster Wolf-Rayet stars. On the other hand, the H_2 line ratios can be explained with multi-component models of warm molecular gas in photodissociation regions without the need for H_2 production in shocks.Comment: 51 pages, 17 figures To be published in the Astrophysical Journa

Dynamic instability of a rotating Bose-Einstein condensate

We consider a Bose-Einstein condensate subject to a rotating harmonic potential, in connection with recent experiments leading to the formation of vortices. We use the classical hydrodynamic approximation to the non-linear Schr\"odinger equation to determine almost analytically the evolution of the condensate. We predict that this evolution can exhibit dynamical instabilities, for the stirring procedure previously demonstrated at ENS and for a new stirring procedure that we put forward. These instabilities take place within the range of stirring frequency and amplitude for which vortices are produced experimentally. They provide therefore an initiating mechanism for vortex nucleation.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figures, last version including comparison with experiment

Re-sampling strategy to improve the estimation of number of null hypotheses in FDR control under strong correlation structures

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>When conducting multiple hypothesis tests, it is important to control the number of false positives, or the False Discovery Rate (FDR). However, there is a tradeoff between controlling FDR and maximizing power. Several methods have been proposed, such as the q-value method, to estimate the proportion of true null hypothesis among the tested hypotheses, and use this estimation in the control of FDR. These methods usually depend on the assumption that the test statistics are independent (or only weakly correlated). However, many types of data, for example microarray data, often contain large scale correlation structures. Our objective was to develop methods to control the FDR while maintaining a greater level of power in highly correlated datasets by improving the estimation of the proportion of null hypotheses.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We showed that when strong correlation exists among the data, which is common in microarray datasets, the estimation of the proportion of null hypotheses could be highly variable resulting in a high level of variation in the FDR. Therefore, we developed a re-sampling strategy to reduce the variation by breaking the correlations between gene expression values, then using a conservative strategy of selecting the upper quartile of the re-sampling estimations to obtain a strong control of FDR.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>With simulation studies and perturbations on actual microarray datasets, our method, compared to competing methods such as q-value, generated slightly biased estimates on the proportion of null hypotheses but with lower mean square errors. When selecting genes with controlling the same FDR level, our methods have on average a significantly lower false discovery rate in exchange for a minor reduction in the power.</p