Improving liver allocation: MELD and PELD

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/106724/1/j.1600-6135.2004.00403.x.pd

Pediatric acute liver failure: etiology, outcomes, and the role of serial pediatric end-stage liver disease scores

To describe etiology, short-term outcomes and prognostic accuracy of serial PELD scores in PALF. Retrospective analysis of children aged ≤16 yr, admitted with PALF under the QLTS, Brisbane, Australia, between 1991 and 2011. PELD-MELD scores were ascertained at three time points (i) admission (ii), meeting PALF criteria, and (iii) peak value. Fifty-four children met criteria for PALF, median age 17 months (1 day–15.6 yr) and median weight 10.2 kg (1.9–57 kg). Etiology was known in 69%: 26% metabolic, 15% infective, 13% drug-induced, 6% autoimmune, and 9% hemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis. Age 4. Serial PELD-MELD scores were higher in the 17 (32%) transplant recipients (mean: [i] 26.8, [ii] 31.8, [iii] 42.6); highest in the 12 (22%) non-transplanted non-survivors (mean: [i] 31.6, [ii] 37.2, [iii] 45.7) compared with the 25 (46%) transplant-free survivors (mean: [i] 25.3, [ii] 26.0, [iii] 30.3). PELD-MELD thresholds of ≥27 and ≥42 at (ii) meeting PALF criteria and (iii) peak predicted poor outcome (p < 0.001). High peak bilirubin and peak INR predict poor outcome and serial PELD-MELD is superior to single admission PELD-MELD score for predicting poor outcome

Artificial neural network is highly predictive of outcome in paediatric acute liver failure

Current prognostic models in PALF are unreliable, failing to account for complex, non-linear relationships existing between multiple prognostic factors. A computational approach using ANN should provide superior modelling to PELD-MELD scores. We assessed the prognostic accuracy of PELD-MELD scores and ANN in PALF in children presenting to the QLTS, Australia. A comprehensive registry-based data set was evaluated in 54 children (32M, 22F, median age 17 month) with PALF. PELD-MELD scores calculated at (i) meeting PALF criteria and (ii) peak. ANN was evaluated using stratified 10-fold cross-validation. Outcomes were classified as good (transplant-free survival) or poor (death or LT) and predictive accuracy compared using AUROC curves. Mean PELD-MELD scores were significantly higher in non-transplanted non-survivors (i) 37 and (ii) 46 and transplant recipients (i) 32 and (ii) 43 compared to transplant-free survivors (i) 26 and (ii) 30. Threshold PELD-MELD scores >= 27 and >= 42, at meeting PALF criteria and peak, gave AUROC 0.71 and 0.86, respectively, for poor outcome. ANN showed superior prediction for poor outcome with AUROC 0.96, sensitivity 82.6%, specificity 96%, PPV 96.2% and NPV 85.7% (cut-off 0.5). ANN is superior to PELD-MELD for predicting poor outcome in PALF